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666愛的鼓勵 54訂閱站台

交易和成功風險管理的125條箴言

期貨日報編者按 理查 J‧ 費爾茲 （Richard J‧ Feltes） 是美國瑞富投資集團公司（REFCO）的商品研究副總裁兼糧食、菜籽油高級分析師。他於1970年畢業於伊利諾斯大學農業專業，1972年獲得南伊利諾斯大學MBA學位，1973年就職於大陸穀物公司（Conti Commodity Services），1984年進入REFCO公司。
費爾茲以通過數據預測農產品的價格而著稱。他所管理的REFCO全球研究網是期貨業實時分析的重要消息來源之一。
REFCO公司吸引大量跨國食品公司成為其客戶的原因之一應歸功於費爾茲在穀物價格上富有洞察力的分析。
在大商所成立十周年之際，費爾茲應邀訪問了大商所。為此次中國之行，他特意將多年來的期貨從業經驗總結成125條箴言，作為禮物送給中國投資者。

1‧ Plan your trades and trade your plans‧
為你的交易做好計劃；按你的計劃執行交易。
2‧ Hope and fear are the two greatest enemies of speculators‧
期冀和恐懼是投機者兩個最大的敵人。
3‧ Keep records of your trading results‧
對你的交易結果做好紀錄。
4‧ Maintain a positive attitude no matter how much you lose‧
不管你輸了多少，保持一個積極的態度。
5‧ Avoid overconfidence──it could be your greatest enemy‧
不要過分自信──它會成為你最大的仇敵。
6‧ Continually set higher trading goals‧
不斷設定更高的交易目標。
7‧ Stops are the key to success for many traders──limit your losses！
設定止損是很多交易者成功的關鍵──限制你的虧損！
8‧ The most successful traders are those that trade long term‧
最成功的交易商是做長線交易的交易商。
9‧ Successful traders buy into bad news ＆ sell into good news‧
成功的交易者在壞消息時買，在好消息時賣。
10‧ The successful trader is not afraid to buy high ＆ sell low‧
成功的交易者不怕在高位時買進，在低位時賣出。
11‧ Successful traders have a well scheduled planned time for studying the markets‧
成功的交易者有效地規劃時間來進行市場研究。
12‧ Successful traders set profit objectives for each trade they enter‧
成功的交易者為他們所做的每一筆交易都設定有贏利目標。
13‧ Do not collect the opinions of others before entering trades──facts are priceless──opinions are worthless‧In short successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others‧
不要在還沒進入交易以前就到處徵求意見──事實價值無窮、意見一文不值。簡單地說，成功的交易者不為別人的意見所左右。
14‧ Continually strive for patience， perseverance， determination， and rational action‧
不斷地為耐心、毅力、決斷和理性的行為作努力。
15‧ Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting‧
決不要因為失去耐心而退出市場，也決不要因為迫不及待而進入市場。
16‧ Avoid getting in or out of the market too often‧
進出市場不要過於頻繁。
17‧ The most profitable trading tool is simply following the trend‧
最佳的贏利方法就是跟隨趨勢。
18‧ Never change your position in the market without a good reason‧ When you make a trade， let it be for some good reason or according to a definite plan； then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend‧
除非有充分的理由，不要改變你在市場裏的頭寸。每做一手交易時，你都要有可以依據的理由或者明確的計劃；此後，除非有明確的趨勢改變的跡象，不要退出。
19‧ Losses make the speculator studious──not profits‧ Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action‧
賠錢不能贏利，但能使投機者細心鑽研。抓住每一次賠錢的機會，改進你對市場行為的了解。
20‧ The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self－control‧ Successful trading is difficult and frustrating‧ You are the most important element in the success equation‧
在投機裏最難的任務不是預測，而是自我控制。成功的交易是艱難和令人煩惱的交易。在成功的等式裏，你是最重要的因素。
21‧ The basic substance of price change is human emotion‧ Panic， fear， greed， insecurity， anxiety， stress， and uncertainty are the primary sources of short－term price change‧
價格變化的基本要素是人的情感。慌亂、恐懼、貪婪、不安全感、擔心、壓力和猶豫不定，這些是短期價格變動的主要根源。
22‧ Bullish consensus is typically at its high when the market is at a top‧ Also there are few bulls at major bottoms‧
典型地說，當市場在頂部時，異口同聲地看多的人最多；在重大的底部時，很少有人持牛市的觀點。
23‧ Watch the spreads i‧e‧， don^t be bullish if inverses are narrowing‧
注意多空套做。也就是說，如果逆差在減小，不要看多。
24‧ Remember that a bear market will give up in one month what a bull market has taken 3 months to build‧
記住，一個月的熊市能讓你失去在三個月的牛市中所得到的。
25‧ Identify “the dominant factor” in each commodity‧ Be prepared to redefine this factor as conditions change‧
找到每一種商品期貨裏的“決定性因素”。隨著情況的變化，隨時準備重新判定著一因素。
26‧ Expand your sources for market info but limit your sources for market opinion‧
擴充你的市場信息來源；限制你的市場意見來源。
27‧ Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser‧ Stop yourself out if market moves against you 20％ from your peak profit point‧
永遠不要讓一場大贏的交易轉變為輸家。如果市場使你的贏利從最高處下滑了20％，止損出市。
28‧ It is never possible to know everything about anything‧ A commodity trader is in constant danger‧
沒有人能夠做到萬事皆知。從事期貨交易總要面臨危險。
29‧ Successful trading requires four things‧ Knowledge， disciplined courage， money， and the energy to merge the first 3 properly‧
交易要具備四大要素才能成功：知識、控制得當的勇氣、金錢以及將這三者妥善結合在一起的精力。
30‧ Expect and accept losses gracefully‧ Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity， which more than likely will be profitable‧
預見到會有虧損，雍容大度地接受虧損。那些對虧損苦思冥想的人總是失去下一個機會，而下一個機會很可能是個贏利的機會。
31‧ The one essential ingredient to making money with money and keeping it is having an organized effort‧
用錢來掙錢以及保住錢的一個根本要素是做事要有板有眼。
32‧ Unless you progress， you go backwards‧ Once you complete a trading goal it is crucial that you immediately set a new goal‧
不進則退。要緊的是一旦實現了一個交易目標，你應該立刻設定一個新的目標。
33‧ The art of concentration can help you become a great trader‧ In other words， set aside time to think， plan， meditate， investigate， research， analyze， evaluate and select your trades carefully‧
專心致志的藝術能夠幫助你成為一個傑出的交易者。也就是說，安排出時間來仔細地思考、計劃、琢磨、調查、研究、分析、衡量和選擇你的交易。
34‧ Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50％ of them again in the market‧
把你的盈利一分為二，決不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市場上去冒險。
35‧ The key to successful trading is in knowing yourself and in knowing your stress point‧
成功交易的關鍵是了解你自己以及知道你自己對壓力的承受能力。
36‧ The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes‧
成功者和失敗者之間的真正區別，與其說是天生的能力，還不如說是在避免錯誤中表現的有素的訓練。
37‧ The greatest risk for a commodity trader is to rely on hope alone‧ Never substitute hope for facts‧ The greatest loss is loss of self－confidence‧
期貨交易商的最大的錯誤就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永遠不要用希望來取代事實。自信心的失落是最大的虧損。
38‧ You cannot perform very well for very long with your shoes nailed to the floor‧ In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead‧
你不可能在原地不動而持久地表現出色。交易就像擊劍，不是快速運動，就是身敗劍下。
39‧ Remember Mark Twain： “only 10％ of the people think‧ 10％ think they think‧ The other 80％ would rather die than think‧”
記住馬克‧土溫說的：“只有百分之十的人思考，百分之十的人認為他們思考，其餘百分之八十的人寧死也不願思考。”
40‧ The man who goes to the top as a commodity trader does not do as he pleases‧ He has trained himself to choose correctly between the two freedoms： the freedom to do as he pleases， and the freedom to do what he must do‧
期貨交易高手做事不是隨心所欲。他把自己訓練得知道怎樣在兩種自由中作正確的選擇：隨心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。
41‧ Since there is always the possibility of surprise in thin， dead markets， less capital should be risked there than in markets which are broad and moving‧
因為在窄小的、停滯的市場裏總有出乎意料的可能，在這樣的市場裏應該比在寬廣的、運動的市場裏投入較少的資本來承擔風險。
42‧ Limit the risk in any one trade to a maximum of 10％ and the risk in all open trades to a maximum of 25％ of trading capital‧ （risk = pct of available capital）‧ Determine this each day， adding profits and subtracting losses in open trades， and combine this net figure with your trading capital‧
將你每一手交易的風險控制在百分之十以內。將你所有持倉的交易的總風險控制在最多不超過交易資本的百分之二十五（風險=可用資本的百分比）。每天對此加以計算，在持倉交易中加上盈利，減去虧損，再把這一數字同你的交易資本結合起來。
43‧ It does not take much capital to trade a market if one has knowledge and understanding‧ St‧ Paul said， “when I am weak I am strong‧”
如果你懂得和理解一個市場，做交易並不需要很多資本。聖保爾說過，“我在軟弱時則強壯”。
44‧ Speech may be silver but “Silence is Golden”‧ Traders with the golden touch do not talk‧
言談可能是銀子，可“沉默是金子”。有點金術的交易商稀於言談。
45‧ Common trading errors include： A） trading without good reasons‧ B） trading on hope rather than facts‧ C） overloading without regard for capital‧
常見的交易錯誤包括：A、理由不充分的交易；B、基於希望多於事實的交易；C、與資本不相稱的超量交易。
46‧ “I like the short side of the market because there is usually less company”‧ The mob is usually wrong‧ It is usually long‧
“我喜歡市場看空的一邊，因為通常這裏人要少一些”。蜂擁之眾通常是錯的，它通常是看多。
47‧ A fatal mistake made by the fundamental trader is to take small profits‧ This is the result of limited vision ？？？ extremes always seem silly to men of so called good judgment‧
初學交易的人的一個致命的錯誤是稍有贏利就出手。這是目光短淺的結果──對所謂的明智的人來說，走極端總是愚蠢的。
48‧ Trade only when you have a good reason on an appraisal of fundamentals and using chart action for confirmation and timing of entry and exit‧
只有當你根據基本面的分析作出估價，運用圖表行為加以證實，並策劃好入市和出市的時間，只有當這些加在一起為你提供了充足的理由時，再做交易。
49‧ Believe that “the big one is possible” ──be there when it starts‧ Have the gross power to act， be rested mentally and physically， and finally let your profits run and cut your losses quickly‧
相信“大的未必不可能”──一旦大的發生了，不至於手忙腳亂。讓綜合的力量自己行動，精神上和肉體上都休息充分，最終讓你的利潤滾動，迅速地砍掉你的損失。
50‧ Dream big dreams and think tall‧ Very few people set goals too high‧ A man becomes what he thinks about all day long‧
大膽做夢，敢於想像。很少有人把目標設得過高。一個人從早到晚在思考什麼，他最終就變成什麼。
51‧Commodity trading is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin and giving up as the greatest mistake‧ It is the art of accepting failure as a step toward victory‧
期貨交易是一門把恐懼看作是最大的罪惡，把放棄看作是最大的錯誤的藝術。它是一門把接受失敗看作是向勝利走近一步的藝術。
52‧Have you taken a loss？ Forget it quick‧ If you have taken a profit， forget it quicker‧ Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work‧
你輸過嗎？儘快忘了它。你要是贏過，忘它忘得更快一些。不要讓自我和貪婪妨礙清晰的思維和刻苦的工作。
53‧The characteristics of realizing bull market are：
a‧a fundamental bullish situation
b‧a reluctance by specs to buy
c‧an inversion or small carrying charge between cash and futures
d‧business interests are either cautious or bullish
識別牛市有下列的特徵：
a‧從基本面上看，有一個牛市的情勢
b‧專業商不情願去買
c‧現貨同期貨之間倒掛或只有少量的持有費用
d‧商業興趣或者是持謹慎態度，或者是看多
54‧Always remember that weather markets are mercurial， extreme in price fluctuations， and very difficult to master‧ Forecasts of weather beyond a few days are not reliable‧
始終記住，氣候市場是變幻無常，價格變動劇烈，極難把握的市場。幾天之外的天氣預報就不可靠。
55‧One cannot do anything about yesterday‧ When one door closes， another door opens‧ The greater opportunity nearly always lies through the open door‧
沒有人能改變昨天發生的事。當一扇門關上時，另一扇門就打開了。越過打開的門，往往能找到更大的機會。
56‧The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market‧ The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it‧ As long as he recognizes this， he is safe‧ When he ignores it， he is lost‧
對交易者來說，最深的祕密就是放棄自己的意願，屈從於市場的意願。市場是真理，它反映出它所承擔的所有的力量。只要交易者認識到這一點，他就是安全的。當他忽視這一點時，他就會失敗。
57‧Somewhere a change is occurring that can make you rich‧
在某一地方某種變化正在發生，它能使你變得富有。
58‧Beware of “fools disease” （i‧e‧ Waiting for trades that you’re sure are 100 pct profitable‧） It is better never to let yourself believe that you are 100 pct sure of anything‧
警惕“愚人病”（也就是等待那些你百分之百肯定會贏利的交易）。你最好別讓你自己相信你能對任何一件事百分之百地肯定。
59‧A known fundamental is a useless fundamental‧
人人皆知的基本原理是毫無用處的基本原理。
60‧Major trends are seldom broken unless market goes against trend for more than 3 consecutive days‧
除非市場連續三天同潮流走反向，主要潮流很少會轉移方向。
61‧If a market doesn’t do what you think it should and you’re tired of waiting ， you’d better be out of it‧
如果市場所做的不是你認為它應該做的，而你對等待已感到厭倦，你最好退出市場。
62‧Stay calm and maintain clear thinking when trading big positions‧
交易大宗頭寸時，要保持冷靜和頭腦清醒。
63‧Reevaluate your position in the market if charts have deteriorated and fundamentals have not developed as you expected‧
如果圖形走弱，而且基本面的發展不像你所預期的那樣，重新對你在市場的頭寸作估價。
64‧Above all be mentally prepared for the rigors of each trading day from the time you get up each morning until you go to bed at night‧
最重要的是在精神上對每個交易日的嚴峻場面作好準備，從每天早晨你爬起來，一直到晚上回到床上。
65‧Do whatever is necessary to stay on top of the markets you are trading‧
竭盡全力，停留在你所交易的市場的頂部。
66‧Believe that the market is stronger than you are‧ Do not try to fight the market‧
相信市場比你要強大。不要企圖同市場抗爭。
67‧Beware of large positions that can control your emotions and feelings‧ In other words don’t be overly aggressive with the market‧ Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts‧
對那些會控制你情緒波動的大頭寸保持警惕，也就是說，在市場上不要過分冒進。與其暴贏，不如緩進，穩紮穩打地積累資產。
68‧Capital preservation is just as important as capital appreciation‧
資本保存同資本增值一樣要緊。
69‧When a market’s gotten away and you’ve missed the first leg you should still consider jumping in even if it is dangerous and difficult‧
如果市場已經起步了而你錯過了第一輪烽火，你不妨仍然考慮中途介入，即使這樣做是危險而困難的。
70‧Work hard at understanding the key factor（s） motivating the market（s） you are trading‧ In other words， the harder you work the luckier you’ll be‧
交易時，努力去理解那些推動市場的關鍵因素。換句話說，越努力你就會越幸運。
71‧Remember that it’s better to trade a few big moves a year （and close them out profitably） than to trade constantly‧
記住，與其不斷地交易，不如每年少交易幾手（並在贏利時出手）。
72‧Set an objective for each trade you enter and get out when you meet it‧ Don’t be greedy！
為你的每一手交易設立一個目標，達到目標就出手。不要貪心！
73‧Remember that for many commodities ，politics are more important than economics‧
記住，對許多商品來說，政治比經濟更重要。
74‧Never add to a losing position‧
不要在輸錢的頭寸上加碼。
75‧Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms‧
挑選底部和頂部時要小心。
76‧ Worry about how much you can lose‧ Figure risk reward ratio ahead of trade‧ Strive for at least 3x potential profit vs‧ loss‧
要想到你能夠輸多少錢，交易前就想好風險回報比例。盡力做到可能的盈利要三倍於可能的虧損。
77‧ If it appears that lots of bulls are long ， be nervous！
如果看上去有很多多頭在買，你就需要警惕起來。
78‧ If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be true you’d better take profits‧
如果你在市場上領先一籌，而且所有的消息都好得難以置信，你最好是收回你的盈利，出市走人。
79‧ The news always follows the market‧
新聞總是尾隨市場之後。
80‧ There is only one side to the market； and it is not the bull side or the bear side， but the right side‧
市場只有一種，不是牛市或熊市，而是正確之市。
81‧ A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game‧
如果有人想在這場遊戲裏生存，他必須相信自己和自己的判斷力。
82‧ It is the big swing that makes the big money for you‧ “It was never my wishing that made the big money for me‧ It was always my sitting tight‧” Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon‧ The market does not beat them‧ They beat themselves‧ You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight‧
大浪潮為你創造大筆財富。“為我帶來大筆財富的從來就不是我的祈求。它從來都是因為我坐著不動。”能夠既正確又坐著不動的人是不多見的。市場打不敗他們，打敗他們的是他們自己。一定要有堅韌的勇氣和智慧的耐心，你才做得到坐著不動。
83‧ To buy on a rising market is a most comfortable way of buying‧ Buy on a scale up‧ Sell on a scale down‧
最不讓人擔心的買進方法是在一個上升的市場裏買進。買高賣低。
84‧ Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling‧ But after the initial transaction， don’t make a second unless the first shows a profit‧
商品沒有高到不該再買的時候，也沒有低到不該再賣的時候。不過，在最初的轉手後，除非第一手交易獲利了，不要再做第二手。
85‧ Realize that the big money comes in the big swing‧ Whatever might seem to give a big swing， its initial impulse， the fact is that no matter who opposes it， the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine‧
要意識到大筆錢來自大浪潮。無論什麼是看上去會掀起大浪潮的，它最初的鼓動，事實是，不管是誰對抗它，大浪潮都無可避免地必然按照推動它的力量所決定的速度，沖到推動它的力量所決定的遠處。
86‧ In the long run， commodity prices are governed but by one law ， the economic law of demand and supply‧
從長遠來看，決定商品價格的只有一條法則，供與求的經濟法則。
87‧ A loss never bothers me after I take it‧ I forget it overnight‧ But being wrong and not taking the loss ， that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul‧
當我接受了一手輸了的交易，我就不再為它煩惱。隔了一夜我就忘了。但是，如果我做得不對，不肯接受我輸了的事實，這才會既對記賬本也對心靈造成損害。
88‧ It is profitable to study your mistakes‧
研究你的錯誤會給你帶來利潤。
89‧ Of all speculative blunders， there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss‧
在所有為投機而犯的愚蠢的錯誤裏，很少有比賣掉會賺錢、買進要賠錢的更愚蠢的了。
90‧ Nothing is new in commodities！ The game does not change and neither does human nature‧
期貨交易裏沒有什麼新東西！遊戲沒有變；人性也沒有變。
91‧ In a bear market， it is always wise to cover if complete demoralization suddenly develops‧
在熊市裏，一旦突然全場士氣低落，你最好趕快平倉。
92‧ The principles of successful commodity speculation is based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past‧
成功的期貨投機，其原理建立在這樣的假設上：人們在未來會重犯他們在過去犯過的錯誤。
93‧ In a bull market and particularly in booms， the public at first makes money， which it later looses simply by overstaying the bull market‧
在牛市裏，特別是在高峰的時候，公眾最初贏錢，然後就因為在牛市裏停留太長，而全輸了回去。
94‧ A bull market needs to be fed every day ， a bear market only once a week‧
牛市需要每天為它提供給養；熊市只需要一個星期為它提供一次給養。
95‧ Never underestimate how much time is necessary to wash out a market that is long‧
不要過低估量需要多少時間清洗一個看多的市場。
96‧ Never buy the first rally and never sell the first break‧
不要在第一次回升時買進，也不要在第一次下跌時賣出。
97‧ Be advised that it is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself‧
最好是記住，與其對一則新聞本身感興趣，不如對市場對該則新消息的反應感興趣。
98‧ Don’t diversify ， concentrate on a few commodities‧ More diversity reduces amount you can speculate with‧ Also too much to watch‧
不要撒芝麻在幾種商品上。分佈過散會減少你能用以投機的數量。況且要看管的太多。
99‧ Don’t pioneer highs or lows‧ Let the market tell you a high or low has been made‧
不要在高處或低處打衝鋒。讓市場告訴你什麼是新高或新低。

100‧ Keep some perspective‧ Trees don’t grow to the sky‧ values don’t go to zero‧ What are histories and recent highs and lows， Loan levels， Loans are not necessarily price floors‧ CCC selling prices aren’t necessarily price ceilings‧
持有你自己的觀點。樹木長不到天空那麼高，價值不會跌到等於零。貸款不一定就是價格的底部。商品信用公司（CCC）的銷售價不一定就是價格的頂部。

101‧ “If you get in on Jones’ tip； get out on Jones’ tip”‧ If you are riding another person’s idea， ride it all the way‧
“如果你是根據張三的小道消息走進市場，那就按照張三的小道消息走出市場”。如果你是依賴別人的主意行事，那就按照他的主意走到底。

102‧ Run early or not at all‧ Don’t be an eleven o’clock bull or a five o’clock bear‧
要麼就早跑，要麼就別跑。不要做11點鐘的牛，或者5點鐘的熊。

103‧ Woodrow Wilson said， “a governments first priority is to organize the common interest against special interests”‧ Successful traders seek out market opportunities capitalizing on the reality that government’s first priority is rarely achieved‧
伍德儒‧威爾遜說過：“一個政府的首要任務是把共有的利益組織起來以對抗特殊的利益。”在現實中，這一政府的首要任務難得真正實現。成功的交易者尋求的市場機會就是建立在這樣的現實上的。

104‧ People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers‧
那些相信報紙頭條的人最終的命運就是賣報紙。

105‧ If you do not know who you are， the market is an expensive place to find out‧
如果你對自己缺乏了解，市場是一個昂貴的地方來發現你自己。

106‧ Never give advice─the smart don’t need it and the stupid don’t heed it‧
不要給別人出主意──聰明人不需要，傻瓜不會聽你的。

107‧ Disregard all prognostications‧ In the world of money， which is a world shaped by human behavior， nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future‧ Mark that word─nobody！ Thus the successful trader bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen‧
無視所有的預言。金錢的世界是一個以人的行為勾畫出的世界。在金錢世界裏，沒有一個人對將來會有絲毫的概念。記住這個詞的沒有一個人。所以，成功的交易者不是把自己的行動建築在什麼是應該發生的上，而是對所發生的事而作出反應。

108‧ Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health‧ If you are not worried， you are not risking enough‧
擔心不是病狀，而是健康的標幟。如果你不擔心，那就說明你承擔的風險還不夠。

109‧ Except in unusual circumstances， get in the habit of taking your profit too soon‧ Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you‧ Chances are it won’t continue long‧ If it does console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early preserved gains you would otherwise have lost‧
除了在不同尋常的情況裏，養成早些兌現你的盈利的習慣。不要折磨你自己即使你出來之後那筆交易還在贏錢。非常可能的是這不會延續很長。即使這種情況繼續下去，想一想所有由於你提前平倉而避免了失去既得盈利的場合。

110‧ When the ship starts to sink， don’t pray─jump！
一旦船開始下沉，不要祈禱──跳船！

111‧ Life never happens in a straight line‧ Any adult knows this‧ But we can too easily be hypnotized into forgetting it when contemplating a chart‧ Beware of the chartist’s illusion‧
生活從來就不是一條直線。每一個成年人都知道這一點。可是，當我們在觀看圖表時太容易被引導得忘掉這一點。警惕圖表製作者創造的幻覺。

112‧ Optimism means expecting the best， but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst‧ Never make a move if you are merely optimistic‧
樂觀主義意味著期望最好的情況發生。自信心意味著知道一旦最壞的情況發生你會怎樣處理。如果你只是樂觀而已，千萬不要輕舉妄動。

113‧ Whatever you do， whether you bet with the herd or against， think it through independently first‧
不管你做什麼，不管你是隨流而下還是逆流而上，首先對你要做的事作一獨立的思考。

114‧ Repeatedly reevaluate your open positions‧ Keep asking yourself： would I put my money into this if it were presented to me for the first time today？ Is this trade progressing toward the ending position I envisioned？
反覆地重新衡量你的持倉頭寸。不斷地問自己：如果這是我今天第一次才看到的，我會投錢進去嗎？這手交易是不是在向我想像的方向發展？

115‧ It is a safe bet that the money lost by （short term） speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments “ride”‧ Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all‧ The intelligent trader will ‧ By acting promptly─hold losses to a minimum‧
可以這麼說，比起那些讓他們的投資“隨波逐流”的人所損失的巨額款項來，（短線）的投機所損失的還是小數目。長線投資者在進入交易之後，常常待著不走而最終全都輸掉。在這種意義上，他們是最大的賭博者。智慧的交易者，通過及時採取行動，把損失限制在最小的範圍內。

116‧ As a rule of thumb good trend lines should touch at least three previous highs or lows‧ The more points the line catches， the better the line‧
實際經驗證明，一條可信的市場動向曲線應當至少三次碰到先前的高峰點或低谷點。一條曲線能抓住的接觸點越多，這條曲線就越可信。

117‧ Volume and open interest are as important to the technician as price‧
對技術分析來說，交易量和持倉量同價格一樣重要。

118. The clearest and easiest way to determine a trend is from previous highs and lows. Higher highs and higher lows mark an uptrend, lower highs and lower lows mark a downtrend.
確定市場動向的最清楚和最容易的方法是根據舊高和舊低。高於舊高和舊低標誌著向上的走向,低於舊高和舊低標誌著朝下的走向。

119. Don't sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell－off is actually a very bullish situation.
不要在一個剛經過跌落的安靜的市場裡賣。因為低流量的跌市實際上是一個非常看多的處境。

120. Prices are made in the minds of men, not in the soybean field: fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.
價格是在人的頭腦裡訂出來的,而不是在大豆田裡訂出來的。恐懼和貪婪可以把價格暫時推到遠離所謂的實際價格之外。

121. When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high, it is a buy signal. When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low, it is a sell signal.
當市場穿過一個星期或一個月的高位時,這是買的信號。當它穿過前一星期或前一月低位時,這是賣的信號。

122. Every sunken ship has a chart.
沒有一艘沉船是不備有圖表的。

123. Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
在交易之中不妨找個時間休息一下。休息一下可以讓你站在另一個角度上來看一看市場,讓你重新看一看你自己以及你在以後幾個星期內想用的交易方法。

124. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
讓你每根骨頭的骨髓裡都滲透一套對你有用的交易規則。

125. The final phase in a bull move is an accelerated runaway near the top. In this phase, the market always makes you believe that you have underestimated the potential bull market. The temptation to continue pyramiding your position is strong as profits have now swelled to the point that you believe your account can stand any setback. It is imperative at this juncture to take profits on your pyramids and reduce the position back to base levels. The base position is then liquidated when it becomes apparent that the move has ended.
一個牛市運動的最後階段是一場接近頂部的加速賽跑。在這一階段,市場總是讓你相信你低估了潛在的牛市。隨著盈利膨脹到讓你相信你的賬戶可以對付任何挫折,繼續堆砌你的頭寸金字塔的誘惑強大。在這關鍵的時候,要緊的是從你的金字塔上拿走你的盈利,把你的頭寸減少到基本水平。隨後,當這一運動變得顯然結束了時,將這基本頭寸也平倉。

指數期貨的操作心法