2011-04-22 21:39:43 | 人氣(2,213) | 回應(0) | 上一篇 | 下一篇

真正的海龜交易者》

推薦 0 收藏 0 轉貼0 訂閱站台

真正的海龜交易者》第05章

5 The Rules

  第05章 原則

  “We have a pretty strict definition of a systematic trader. They basically follow a set series of rules, established in a computer program, that tell you when to buy or sell, how many, as well as when to get out.”

  Michael Garfinkle, Commodities Corporation

  “系統交易者的定義很嚴格。他們要遵守一套原則,建立電腦系統,這個系統能告訴你何時進場買或賣,買賣多少,何時出場。”

  邁克爾·加芬克爾,商品公司

  While the rules taught by Dennis and Eckhardt were not meant as a statistics class, the Turtles did learn some basic statistics including two “errors”:

  雖然丹尼斯和埃克哈特教的原則不是統計學經典,海龜們還是學到了基礎的統計學,包括2個錯誤:

  A Type I error, also known as an error of the first kind or a false negative, is the error of rejecting something that should have been accepted.

  錯誤1,拒絕本應該被接受的東西。

  A Type II error, also known as an error of the second kind or a false positive, is the error of accepting something that should have been rejected.

  錯誤2,接受本應該被拒絕的東西。【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  If the Turtles made those errors on a regular basis, they would be finished with mathematical certainty. Said another way, they learned that it was better to risk taking many small losses than to risk missing one large profit. The concept of statistical errors was an admission that acknowledged ignorance could be quite beneficial in trading.

  如果海龜們總是犯以上的錯誤,他們就不懂數學上的確定性。換句話說,接受很多小虧損的現實總比錯過大利潤好。統計學上的錯誤就是認為無知對交易有利。

  At the root of Dennis and Eckhardt’s statistical thinking was Occam’s razor (a principle attributed to the fourteenth-century English logician William of Ockham). In more contemporary jargon people express it as, “Keep it simple, stupid!” For Dennis and Eckhardt’s rules to work, to have some statistical reliability, they had to be simple.

  丹尼斯和埃克哈特的統計學思想就是奧卡姆剃刀(是14世紀奧卡姆提出的一個邏輯定律)。現代術語則是:“保持簡單,做個傻瓜!” 丹尼斯和埃克哈特的原則要想起作用,要想有統計學上的可靠性,就要保持簡單。

  Expectation: How Much Does Your Trading Method Earn in the Long Run?

  期望值:你希望你的交易方法長期下來賺多少?

  “What can you expect to earn on each trade on average over the long run from your investing decisions or your trading rules?” Or, as a blackjack player would say, “What is your edge?” A first step for the Turtles was to know their edge.

  “你的投資決定或交易原則長期下來平均每筆交易賺多少?”或者是21點玩家說的:“你的優勢是什麼?”海龜們的第一步就是知道自己的優勢在哪裡。

  A good analogy is being a batter at the plate in a baseball game, as trades and success rates aren’t much different from batters and their averages. Dennis expanded on this: “The average batter hits maybe .280 and the average system might be successful 35 percent of the time.”

  以籃球賽做比喻,因為交易和成功率與運動員的平均命中率差不多。丹尼斯是這樣解釋的:“就好比籃球平均的命中率是0.280,而交易系統的平均成功率是35%。”

  More importantly what kind of hits did you get in hitting .280. Did you hit singles or home runs? In trading, the higher the expectation, the more you can earn. A trading system with an expectation of $250 per trade will make you more money than a system with a $100 per trade expectation (all other things being equal in the long run). The Turtle rules themselves had a positive expectation per trade because their winning trades were many multiples larger than their losing trades. Expectation (or edge, or expected value) is calculated with a straightforward formula:

  關於0.280的命中率,還要看是哪種進球。是籃板球還是三分球?(張軼注:不懂球類術語,原文是說棒球)在交易中,期望值越高,賺的就越多。每筆交易期望值是250美元的系統比每筆交易期望值是100美元的系統賺的錢多(其它條件相同,長期的結果)。海龜原則的每筆交易是正期望值,因為賺錢的交易比虧錢的交易賺的多。期望值(也叫優勢)用以下公式計算:

  E = (PW X AW) - (PL X AL)

  Where:

  E = Expectation or Edge

  PW = Winning Percent

  AW = Average Winner

  PL = Losing Percent

  AL = Average Loser

  E=期望值或優勢

  PW=勝率

  AW=平均盈利

  PL=敗率

  AL=平均虧損

For example, assume a trading system has 50 percent winning trades. Now, assume the average winning trade is $500 and the average losing trade is $350. What is the “edge” for that trading system?

  比如,一個交易系統的成功率是50%。賺錢時每筆賺500美元,虧錢時每筆虧350美元。那麼這個交易系統的優勢是多少?

  Edge =(PW x AW) - (PL x AL)

  Edge =(.50 X 500) - (.50 X 350)

  Edge =250 - 175

  Edge =$75 on average per gain per trade

  優勢=每筆交易賺75美元

  Over time you would expect to earn $75 for each trade placed. For comparison, another trading system might be only 40 percent accurate with an average winner of $1,000 and an average loser of $350. How would that system compare to the first one?

  長久下來,你每筆交易能賺75美元。再比較一下,另一個交易系統,成功率是40%,平均每筆賺1000美元,平均每筆虧350美元。這個系統和第一個系統相比如何?

  E = (PW x AW - (PL x AL)

  E = (.40 X 1,000) - (.60 X 350)

  E = 400 - 210

  E = $190 on average per gain per trade

  優勢=平均每筆交易賺190美元。

  The second trading system’s “edge” is 2.5 times that of the first even though it has a much lower winning percent. In fact, the second system breaks even with a winning percent of 25.9. The first system breaks even at 41.1 percent. Clearly, when you hear the media and talking heads talking about “90 percent winning trades,” that talk is misleading. Percent accuracy means nothing.

  雖然第二個交易系統的成功率比第一個交易系統的成功率低,但是它的優勢卻是第一個系統的2.5倍。實際上,第二個系統在成功率為25.9%時不賺不虧,第一個系統在41.1%時才能不賺不虧。很明顯,如果你聽媒體說90%成功率的交易,那其實是誤導。成功率不能說明任何問題。

  Look at it this way. Think about Las Vegas. A small edge keeps casinos in business. That’s how those monster hotels in Las Vegas and Macau are paid for - by exploiting the edges. Dennis always wanted his trading to resemble being the house.

  請這樣思考。在拉斯維加斯,小小的優勢就讓賭場長久發展。拉斯維加斯和澳門的賓館--都是靠優勢賺的錢蓋的。丹尼斯一直希望他的交易像賭場那樣。

  It didn’t necessarily matter how little the Turtles lost on any individual trade, but they needed to know how much they could lose in their whole portfolio. Eckhardt was clear: “The important thing is to limit portfolio risk. The trades will take care of themselves.”

  對海龜們來說,單筆交易虧一點沒關係,但是要知道整個投資組合會虧多少。埃克哈特很明確:“重要的是要控制投資組合的風險。交易者要處理好它們。”

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #1:

You need to calculate your edge for every trading decision you make, because you can’t make “bets” if you don’t know your edge. It’s not about the frequency of how correct you are; it’s about the magnitude of how correct you are.

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示1:

  你必須為每筆交易計算你的優勢,因為如果你不知道優勢,你就是在賭博。不是你正確的頻率,而是你正確的程度。

  Comparing the expected values of various Turtle and Turtle-style trading money management firms to various stock indexes gives more perspective about the importance of expectation:

  把海龜的方法和股指期貨比較一下,就能知道期望值的重要性。

  Table 5.1: Turtle Trader Expectations from Inception to August 2006.

  圖5.1:從開始到2006年海龜交易者的期望值

Trader
交易者
Average Winning Month %
平均盈利,月%
Average Losing Month %
平均虧損,月%
Percentage Winning Months
盈利百分比,月
Expectation
期望值
Salem Abraham
塞勒姆·亞伯拉罕
8.50
(5.77)
55.36
2.13
Jerry Parker
杰瑞·帕克
5.06
(3.59)
57.40
1.38
Liz Cheval
莉斯·雪娃
12.45
(6.64)
49.62
2.83
Jim DiMaria
吉姆·迪瑪利亞
4.16
(3.17)
54.34
0.81
Mark J. Walsh
馬克·J·沃爾什
10.06
(7.15)
55.78
2.45
Howard Seidler
霍華德·辛德勒
6.57
(4.90)
55.56
1.47
Paul Rabar
保羅·拉巴
9.26
(4.89)
52.51
2.54

  圖5.2 從開始到2006年8月股指期貨的期望值

 

Market Index
股指期貨
Average Winning Month %
平均盈利,月%
Average Losing Month %
平均虧損,月%
Percentage Winning Months
盈利百分比,月
Expectation
期望值
Dow Jones
道瓊斯
3.87
(3.85)
58.09
0.63
NASDAQ
Nasidake
4.98
(4.61)
57.75
0.93
S&P 500
標準普爾500
3.83
(3.92)
58.37
0.60

  The expectation generated by the trend traders generally beats the monthly expectation of buying and holding market indexes. Why? The average winning months of Turtle traders is much larger than their average losing months.

  趨勢交易者打敗了股指期貨。為什麼?海龜交易者的月平均盈利比月平均虧損大很多。

  Entries and Exits: “It’s Always Better to Buy Rallies”

  進場和出場:“在上漲時買入總是比較好的”

  Everyone wants to know, “How do you know when to buy?” The Turtles were taught to enter trades via “breakouts.” A breakout occurs when a market - any market (Cisco, gold, yen, etc.) - “breaks through” a recent high or low. If a stock or futures contract made a fifty-five-day breakout to the upside (long), meaning that its current price was the highest price of the last fifty-five days, Turtles would buy.

  每個人都想知道:“你怎麼知道何時買入?”海龜們被告知要在突破時進場交易。突破就是市場--任何市場(思科、黃金、日元等等)--突破了最近的最高點或最低點。如果一個股票或期貨合約突破了55天並上漲,這意味著目前的價格是過去55天的最高價,海龜們會買入。

  If a stock made a fifty-five-day breakout to the downside, meaning that its current price was the lowest price of the last fifty-five days, Turtles would sell short, aiming to profit as the market dropped. In isolation there was nothing special about these simple rules for entry. Philosophically, Turtles wanted to buy a market going up (becoming more expensive) and wanted to sell short a market dropping in price (becoming cheaper).

  如果一支股票突破了55天並下跌,這意味著現在的價格是過去55天的最低價,海龜們會做空,希望市場下跌而賺錢。這個簡單的進場原則沒有特別的地方。理論上,海龜們希望在上漲時買入,在下跌時做空。

What about the standard Wall Street refrain of “buy low and sell high”? The Turtles did just the opposite! And unlike most people’s understanding of the markets, pro or beginner, the Turtles actively aimed to make money by “shorting” declining markets. They had no bias to being long or short.

  那如何理解華爾街的低買高賣?海龜們正好相反!和專業人士與新手都不同,海龜的目標就是通過在下跌的市場做空而賺錢。他們對做多或做空沒有任何偏見。【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  While breakouts were the reason to enter, those breakouts did not mean a trend would continue by any measure. The idea was to let price movement lead the way, knowing at any time the price could change and go in a different direction. If a market went sideways, back and forth, you could see how and why Turtle price breakouts produced many small losses while they waited for a price breakout that might produce the big trend.

  雖然突破是進場的理由,但突破不代表趨勢就會繼續下去。讓價格的波動主導方向,心理要明白價格隨時會改變方向。如果市場是振蕩的,你就會發現突破進場產生了很多小虧損。

  No matter what price is the variable that the great traders have lived and died by for decades. Making trading decisions more complicated than the simple heuristic of “price” has always been problematic. Eckhardt knew it was hard to do much better: “Pure price systems are close enough to the North Pole that any departure tends to bring you farther south.”

  幾十年來,偉大的交易者都是靠價格生存。如果交易決定比簡單的價格複雜,那麼這樣的交易決定是有問題的。埃克哈特知道想做的更好是很難的:“純粹的價格系統就能讓你知道價格在上漲,其它方法可能讓你虧錢。”

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #2:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示2:

  Now that the concept of using price for your decision-making is clear, stop watching TV! Stop looking at financial news. Start keeping track of the open, high, low, and close of each market you are tracking. That is the key data you need to make all of your trading decisions.

  現在你已經知道了如何做交易決定,不要看電視!不要看財經新聞。開始記錄你所關心的市場的開盤價、最高價、最定價和收盤價。這些資料是你做交易決定的關鍵資料。

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #3:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示3:

  You need to be able to wrap your arms around the concept of “shorting” a market. Or said another way, you have to relish the opportunity to make money in a decreasing market. Shorting was never unique to the Turtles; they just did it effectively.

  你要做好做空的準備。換句話說,你必須珍惜在下跌的市場做空賺錢的機會。不僅僅是海龜們會做空,別人都做的很好。

  System One and System Two: The Two Turtle Systems

  系統1和系統2:2個海龜系統

  The Turtles learned two breakout variants or “systems.” System One (S1) used a four-week price breakout for entry and a two-week price breakout in the opposite direction of the entry breakout for an exit. If a market made a new four-week high, the Turtles would buy. They would exit if/when it made a two-week low. A two-week low was a ten-day breakout - counting trading days only.

  海龜們學到了2個系統。系統1把4周的突破做為進場信號,把反向的2周突破做為出場信號。如果一個市場創造了4周新高,海龜們就會買入。如果它創造了2周新低,那麼他們就退出。2周新低就是10天的突破。

  While the System One entry rule is straightforward, the Turtles were taught extra rules to confirm whether or not they should take the four-week breakout. The extra rules were called “filters,” and they were designed to increase the odds that when the Turtles took a four-week breakout signal, it would continue as a potentially big trend.

  雖然系統1的進場原則很直接,海龜們還是學到了一個原則,以判斷是否要接受這個4周突破。這個原則叫過濾器,目的是提高4周突破信號的概率。

  The filter rule: The Turtles ignored the System One four-week breakout signal if the last four-week breakout signal was a winner. Even if they did not take the last four-week breakout signal, or even if it was just “theoretically” a winning trade, the Turtles still didn’t take the System One breakout. However, if the trade before a current four-week breakout was a 2N loss, they could take the breakout (“N” was simply their measure of volatility, discussed in the next section).

  過濾器原則:如果之前的4周突破信號是賺錢的,那麼海龜們就忽略系統1的4周突破信號。即使他們沒有採用之前的4周突破信號,或那只是理論上的盈利交易,海龜們仍然不採用系統1的突破。然而,如果一個4周突破前的交易虧損了2N,那麼他們才用這個突破(N是他們衡量波動性的東西,下節會談論的)。

  Additionally, the direction of the System One four-week breakout was irrelevant in terms of the filter rule. If their last trade was a short losing trade and a new long or short breakout hit, they could take that breakout and get in.

  另外,系統1的4周突破方向和過濾器的原則沒有關係。如果之前一筆是做空的且虧錢的交易,一個新的做多或做空突破發生了,他們可以採用這個突破並進場。

  But this filter rule had a built-in problem. What if the Turtles skipped the entry breakout (since the last trade was a “winner”) and that skipped breakout was the beginning of a hugely profitable trend that roared up or down? Not good to be on the sidelines with a market taking off!

  但是這個過濾器有一個內在的問題。如果海龜們錯過了這個進場的突破(因為之前一筆交易是賺錢的),結果錯過的突破是一個超級大的趨勢,那怎麼辦?錯過了大行情可不好!

If the Turtles skipped a System One four-week breakout and the market kept trending, they could and would get back in at the System Two eleven-week breakout (see below). This fail-safe System Two breakout was how the Turtles kept from missing big trends that were filtered out.

  如果海龜們錯過了系統1的4周突破,結果趨勢在發展,他們可以用系統2的11周突破(看下面)。系統2就是為了防止海龜們錯過了大趨勢。

  System Two was the Turtles’ longer-term trading system. It used an eleven-week breakout (fifty-five days) for an entry signal and a four-week breakout (twenty days) in the opposite direction for an exit.

  系統2是海龜們的長線交易系統。它把11周(55天)突破作為進場信號,把4周(20天)反向突破作為出場信號。

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #4:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示4:

  The price “breakout” was Turtle jargon to describe a market that had just made a new high or new low over “x” period. Do traders use other values beyond twenty and fifty-five days for entry? Yes. The selection of these values for your trading will always be subjective. Test or practice these rules on paper and/or trading software (such as wealth-lab.com and mechanicasoftware.com) so you can see the ups and downs and gain confidence. The Turtles typically put half of their money toward each system.

  突破是海龜們用的一個術語,以說明市場創造了n天內的新高或新低。除了20天和55天,海龜們還用其它參數嗎?是的。你交易時選擇的參數總是主觀的。你可以用交易軟體模擬操作(比如wealth-lab.com和mechanicasoftware.com),這樣你就能找到信心。海龜們一般是一個系統用一半的資金。

  Each Turtle had discretion over which of the two systems, System One (S1) and System Two (S2), Dennis and Eckhardt gave them to use. Mike Carr combined S1 and S2, allowing for more entry and exit points. He was trying to smooth out his trading results.

  每個海龜都可以任意選擇系統,系統1或系統2,也就是丹尼斯和埃克哈特教的系統。邁克·卡爾同時使用系統1和系統2。他想讓結果平滑點。

  Jeff Gordon preferred S1, but mixed in S2 for smoother returns. Gordon, like some other Turtles, traded System Three (S3). He said the systems were Dennis’s attempt to teach the Turtles that they should follow his methodology and not venture off the reservation, so to speak. Gordon added, “It was do anything you want to do, but don’t lose more than $50,000 doing it. Once you crossed $50,000 and one dollar, you were out of the Turtle program.”

  杰夫·戈登喜歡用系統1,但用系統2來平滑結果。戈登像有些海龜一樣,用系統3交易。他說丹尼斯的意思是讓他們跟隨丹尼斯的理念。戈登補充說:“就是做你想做的,但不要虧太多。一旦你虧的錢超過了50000美元,你就被辭退了。”

  Dennis called System Three (S3) the dreaded flair account. Erle Keefer saw why S3 was not taking hold, adding, “You could do whatever it was and everybody did it to a small degree, but within about six weeks everybody just canned that account.”

  丹尼斯說系統3是可怕的。爾勒·科夫知道系統3為何很少使用,他補充說:“你想怎麼做就怎麼做,每個人都小小嘗試了一下,但是在6周後都把它放棄了。”

  It was canned because the Turtles had already lived emotionally losing seven out of ten trades. They knew that was the right thing to do. Keefer minced no words: “That was the only way you were ever going to hook the real trend. We saw it work. I don’t know anybody that’s writing really good books called Counter Trend Trading to Win.”

  海龜們放棄它是因為他們經歷了10筆交易要虧損7筆。他們知道什麼是正確的事。科夫扭扭捏捏地說:“這是唯一抓住趨勢的方法。我們知道它有用。我不希望有人寫本說叫《逆勢交易制勝》。”

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #5:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示5:

  Feel free to experiment on breakout lengths. Do not fixate on specific values. The key will be to accept a breakout value and stick with it consistently. Testing and practice are wise for confidence. Trust, but verify.

  關於突破用的參數,你可以自己做實驗。不要只用一個參數。關鍵是你要找到一個突破參數,然後持續一致地用它。測試和實驗能增加信心。

  It is not surprising that over the years some traders - those who knew the Turtle rules - became obsessed with the specific System One and System Two entry and exit values as if they were the long-lost Holy Grail. Traders who fixate like that are looking at the tree instead of seeing the whole forest. For Turtle trading to work, the simplest of entry rules must continue to work. To get into debates about whether entering on a fifty-day breakout or a fifty-one-day breakout is better is misguided. In reality, a minor change of a variable in any robust trading system should not cause significant performance changes. If it does, you are in trouble.

  有些了解海龜系統的人,他會一直使用系統1和系統2,似乎它們就是早已失傳的聖杯,這一點都不奇怪。如此堅持的交易者是只見樹木,不見森林。要想讓系統起作用,那就是堅持用簡單的方法。討論是50天突破好,還是51天突破好,這是誤導。實際上,只要是耐用的交易系統,你改變它的參數,但結果是不會有很大變化的。如果你發現結果變化很大,你就有麻煩了。

Jerry Parker uses “robustness” as his guiding precept: “I think it’s important to stay fairly simple - not a lot of variables. I think the reason we make money? It’s the simple moving average systems. They need to continue to do well.”

  杰瑞·帕克把耐用性做為指導箴言:“簡單才是重要的--不是用很多參數。我想我們賺錢的原因?是用簡單的均線系統。它們會一直很好用。”

  Parker used the Mount Lucas Management Index to make the point. It is a trend-following index based on a fifty-two-week moving average that goes back to the 1960s. Parker knows that core concept is his edge:【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  帕克用上漲盧卡斯管理指數說明這點。它是60年代根據52周均線做的趨勢跟蹤指數。帕克知道它的核心思想就是他的優勢:

  Two-thirds of that is what drives our profits. Our little filters to get in early, to get out quicker, volatility filters, if that is how we’re going to essentially generate returns, we’re going to be in bad shape. The core simple moving average or breakout systems [are key]. I think making our parameters longer term is important, but the minute it takes too much thinking and too much analysis and too much fancy work, it is going to be . . . a very bad situation.

  三分之二是產生利潤的原因。我們的小過濾器提前進場了,提前出場了,如果這就是賺錢的方式,這就太糟糕了。簡單的均線或突破系統才是關鍵。我想參數大點是重要的,但是如果你想的太多、分析的太多、研究太多,那麼結果還是很糟糕。

  The market ‘gurus’ who pretend that a complex approach must be used to make money miss Parker’s point about keeping it simple. They want the equivalent of quantum physics for trading rules. That kind of thinking is mental masturbation, or as trader Ed Seykota calls, it “math-turbation.”

  有些“大師”裝模作樣地說複雜的方法才能賺錢,這個觀點和帕克提倡的簡單是相違背的。他們把量子力學當作交易原則。這種想法就是意淫,或者用艾德?塞柯塔的話說,是數字意淫。

  Consider this September 1995 Japanese yen chart to illustrate the System One price breakout in action:

  請看看1995年9月份日元的圖,它說明了系統1的價格正在突破:

  Chart 5.3: Turtle Entry Example Using Japanese Yen.

  圖5.3:用日元說明海龜的進場

Price Chart of a September 1995 Japanese Yen Future Contract,

  1995年9月份日元期貨合約,1995年2月--1995年4月。

  The September 1995 Japanese yen futures made a new four-week high on February 16, 1995. Turtles rules called for an entry on the next trading day. The position was held through all subsequent new highs and exited on a new two-week low on April 26, 1995. Source: Price-Data.com.

  1995年9月份合約在1995年2月16日創造了4周新高。海龜原則要求第二個交易日進場。這個倉位一直被持有到1995年4月26日,並平倉。

The market “broke out” to a new four-week high early in 1995. Then the market moved upward until a two-week breakout in the opposite direction in late April. The Turtles exited.

  在1995年初,市場突破了4周新高。然後市場上漲,直到在4月反向的2周突破時,海龜們就出場了。

  A great example of this process was seen early in Liz Cheval’s career. She bought 350 oil contracts for under $20 a barrel in July 1990 and hung on as prices rose above $40. On October 15, 1990, she started liquidating at $38 a barrel and completed her liquidation at just over $30 with an average exit price of $34.80.

  另外一個很好的例子是莉斯·雪娃創造的。她在1990年7月,以低於每桶20美元的價格買入350份原油合約,並一直持有到40美元。在1990年10月15日,她開始以每桶38美元的價格平倉,在30美元前全部平倉,平均平倉價是34.80美元。

  There was no discussion about OPEC, government reports, or other fundamental factors used in Cheval’s decision-making. It was all about the price action telling her to enter and exit. It is important to note that Turtles always exited after the market went against them, thus having to endure the painful experience of giving back profits. You can’t pick the bottom and you can’t pick the top, so trying to end up with the “middle” of a trend was the goal.

  雪娃在做決定的時候並沒有討論石油輸出國組織、政府報告或基本面。只是因為價格的波動叫她進場和出場。你要注意,這很重要,海龜們總是在市場對他們不利之後才出場,因此必須忍受利潤回吐的痛苦。你不能抓到底部和頂部。所以,盡量在趨勢中間結束才是目標。

  Chart 5.4: Turtle Long Entry Example Using Natural Gas.

  圖5.4:用天然氣說明進場做多的例子。

(圖中文字:2005年12月份天然氣期貨合約,2005年6--10月)

  A new fifty-five-day high was made in November 2005 Natural Gas on July 12, 2005. The market continued making new highs until a peak on October 5, 2005. Source: Price-Data.com.

  2005年7月12日2005年12月份天然氣合約創造了55天新高。這個市場一直在上漲,直到2005年10月5日到達頂部。

  Experiencing that trade made Cheval a believer. She said, “I remember giving back $4 million out of $8 million profit of Rich’s money in a few minutes in the silver market in 1987.” That lesson helped her to hang on when crude oil dropped from $30 to $25.

  這個交易讓雪娃相信了。她說:“我記得1987年交易理查德的資金,結果在幾分鐘內把800萬的利潤回吐了400萬。”這個教訓幫助她在原油從30美元跌到25美元時持有倉位。

Consider another example (chart 5.4), from November 2005 in Natural Gas Futures. Each dot represents a new fifty-five-day high. The first breakout happened in mid-July 2005. There was no way to know entering that breakout that a trend would continue higher, but it did, and the Turtles just followed along making money.

  看看另外一個例子(圖5.4),關於2005年11月份的天然氣期貨。每個黑點代表55天新高。第一個突破發生在2005年7月中旬。當時沒人知道它會漲很多,但它確實漲了很多,海龜們只要跟隨就能賺錢。

  However, that breakout could just as easily have been a loser. In fact, Turtles could have had a string of losers in a row with multiple false breakouts. Phil Lu used to say, “When you have a losing trade, you say to yourself, ‘Hey, it seemed like the right thing to do at that time.’ ” Exactly, following the rules means there will be losses. Trend-following trader Larry Hite has long said, “There are four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win and bets that you lose.”

  然而,這樣的突破也許最終還是虧損的。實際上,海龜們會因為假突破而形成一連串的虧損。飛利浦·盧過去常說:“如果你持有虧損的倉位,你對自己說‘嘿,現在這麼做是對的。’”按照這個原則意味著你要虧損。趨勢跟蹤交易者拉里·海特說:“有四種賭博。賺錢的賭博、虧錢的賭博、你贏的賭博,你虧的賭博。”

  Dealing with and handling losses is not easy. Jerry Parker has lived the struggles of taking losses to win in the long run. He advises:

  處理虧損並不容易。杰瑞·帕克經歷過虧損的掙扎,並實現了長期賺錢。他建議:

  I used to say we take a small loss, but I think it’s better to take an optimal loss. You don’t want to take one that’s too large and yet you don’t want to have your stops so close that you’re going to get bounced out. [Just] hang on to the trade. Don’t get too excited. If you’re not making very much money, that’s fine. If you got a little loss, that’s fine. If you make a decent profit that turns into a loss, that’s fine. Just hold onto it and then really get aggressive when you’ve been rewarded by a big, huge profit.【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  我過去常常說要接受小虧損,但我想最好是接受最優的虧損。你不想虧損太大,你也不希望止損點離進場點太近。持有倉位就行了。不要太激動。如果你沒有賺很多錢,沒事。如果你有小虧損,沒事。如果你把很多利潤變成了虧損,沒事。只要你持有,你就會等到一個超級大的利潤。

  December 2006 Eurodollars is yet another good example to illustrate the Turtle rules in action. However, this time the chart shows the opportunity to make money in a falling market. It was a “go short” opportunity. Each dot represents a new fifty-five-day low. The first “short” breakout occurred in February 2006 and the market continued to fall before reaching a low in June.

  2006年12月的歐洲美元又是一個很好的例子說明海龜原則起了作用。不過這次是靠下跌賺錢。是做空的機會。每個黑點代表了55天的新低。第一次下跌突破發生在2006年2月,然後一直下跌,直到6月的新低才結束。

  Chart 5.5: Turtle Short Entry and Exit Example Using Eurodollars.

  圖5.5:用歐洲美元來說明海龜做空的進場點和出場點

(圖中文字:2006年12月歐洲美元期貨合約價格圖表,2006年1月--8月。55天新低,20天出場,20天出場)

  The December 2006 Eurodollars made a new 55-day low, signaling an entry, on February 20, 2006. The market briefly moved lower before making a new twenty-day high on March 16, 2006. Short positions in the market were exited with a loss. On March 29, 2006, the market made a new low and short positions were reestablished. The market continued making new lows before an exit signal, a new twenty-day high, occurred on July 14, 2006. Source: Price-Data.com.

  2006年2月20日2006年12月份歐洲美元創造了55天新低,是進場信號。市場開始下跌,直到2006年3月16日創造了20天新高。做空就以虧損出場。在2006年3月29日,市場創造了新低,又重新建立空頭倉位。市場繼續下跌,直到出現出場信號,那就是2006年7月14日的20日新高。

By overlaying the twenty-day breakout exit on the Eurodollar chart, the full trade can be seen in context. An initial “short” breakout occurred in February, with a twenty-day high breakout in mid-March. That forced an exit. That first breakout resulted in a small loss.

  2月份第一突破做空,在3月中旬遇到了20天新高反向突破,因此被迫出場了。第一次突破是虧損的。

  However, the market resumed downward in late March and another breakout signal was hit. Turtles got right back in short again. The final exit occurred when a clear twenty-day breakout high was made in July. This is seen on the chart by the slightly larger dot. Profits generated on the second trade covered the loss from the first trade and then some.

  然而,市場在3月底繼續下跌,遇到了另一個突破信號。海龜們又做空了。直到7月出現了明顯的20天反向突破才出場。圖中比較大的黑點說明了這點。第二次的利潤可以彌補第一次的虧損,還有賺。

  That’s the process. The Turtles could not afford to ignore the second breakout just because the first breakout resulted in a loss. They had to get back on the horse. The second breakout was the trade they were hoping for, and there was no way to predict it.

  這就是過程。海龜們不能因為第一個突破是虧損的就忽視第二個突破,他們必須重新進場。第二個突破正是他們在等待的突破,但無法預測。

  It was all a waiting game. Erle Keefer described to me their day-to-day process in rapid-fire summation terms: “First, you use channel breakout theory with a couple of filters. Second, you are going to size your bet by volatility. Third, you are going to have two hard stops on every trade. You are going to have the natural liquidation and you are going to have the firm hard stop. That’s what saved everybody. Rich’s systems inherently said, ‘You got to stay in the game all the time as you never know when trends are going to hit.’ ”

  交易就是一個等待的游戲。爾勒·科夫告訴我他們每天的過程:“首先,你用通道突破理論,加上一些過濾器。第二,你要計算市場的波動性。第三,每筆交易要強制止損。你要自然地平倉,你的止損要堅決。這樣才能拯救每個人。理查德的系統在說‘你必須一直持有倉位,因為你不知道何時趨勢會開始。’”

  Random Entries

  隨機進場

  When a breakout occurred, whether long or short, there was no way to know what would happen next. Maybe the market would go up for a short time and then go down, giving a loss. Perhaps the market suddenly goes higher, giving a nice profit.

  一旦有了突破,無論做多或做空,反正你不知道下一步會如何。也許市場上漲了很短的時間,然後下跌,結果虧損。也許市場突然上漲,利潤很多。

  Eckhardt witnessed many systematic traders spending great deal of time searching for the “good” places to enter. He cautioned against it: “It just seems to be part of human nature to focus on the most hopeful point of the trading cycle. Our research indicated that liquidations are vastly more important than initiations. If you initiate purely randomly, you do surprisingly well with a good liquidation criterion.”

  埃克哈特看見很多系統交易者花大量的時間尋找好的進場機會。他提出警告:“人性都想找到最好的交易機會。我們的研究表明平倉比建倉還重要。如果你的建倉是隨機的,運用好的平倉標準,也能做的很好。”

  Dennis actually challenged the Turtles to randomly enter the market and then manage their trades after getting in. That was a real Zen moment for many Turtles. If they applied appropriate risk management, they could handle the worst that came down the pike once they were in any trade.

  丹尼斯不同意海龜們隨機進場,然後再做打理。這就是很多海龜們真正的禪。如果他們運用了合理的風險管理,他們就可以在危險到來時處理好風險。

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #6:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示6:

  Stop worrying only about how you enter a trade. The key is to know at all times when you will exit.

  不要只擔心進場點。關鍵是要一直關心你的出場點。

  Risk Management: How Much Do You Bet on Each Trade?

  風險管理:每筆交易賭多少?

  Risk management has many names. You will find it called money management, bet sizing, or even position sizing. It was the very first concept Eckhardt addressed in class and ultimately the most important.

  風險管理有很多名字。也叫資金管理,頭寸規模,賭注大小或倉位大小。這是埃克哈特在課堂上一開始就講的概念,也是最重要的概念。

Turtle risk management starts with the measurement of daily market volatility. The Turtles were taught to measure volatility in terms of “daily ranges.” It was nicknamed “N” (also known as the Average True Range, or ATR). They were taught to take the maximum of the following for any market to derive “N”:

  一開始要計算市場的日波動率。海龜們被告知用日內振幅來計算。簡稱N(也叫平均真實振幅,或ATR)。計算任何市場的N方法:

  1.The distance from today’s high to today’s low

  今天的最高價和昨天的最低價之間的距離

  2.The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s high

  昨天的收盤價和今天的最高價之間的距離

  3.The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s low

  昨天的收盤價和今天的最低價之間的距離

  If the result is a negative number, it is turned it into an “absolute value.” In mathematics, the absolute value of a real number is its distance from zero on a number line. So, for example, 3 is the absolute value of both 3 and -3.

  如果結果是負數,要變成絕對值。在數學中,絕對值是正數。比如,3和-3的絕對值都是3。

  The maximum value of the three choices is the “true range,” or technically the absolute distance (either up or down) the market traveled in a given twenty-four-hour period. The Turtles then took a twenty-day moving average of true ranges. This gave a sample volatility for the last few weeks for each market traded.

  上面計算的3個結果的最大值就是真實振幅,技術上叫24小時內絕對的距離(不管是上漲,還是下跌)。海龜們然後計算真實振幅的20天均線。這是計算過去幾周的波動性。【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #7:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示7:

  You can determine the average true range for any stock or futures contract. Simply take the last fifteen true ranges, add them up, and divide by 15. Repeat each day, dropping off the oldest true range. Many software packages will do this automatically.

  你可以計算任何股票或期貨的平均真實振幅。簡單的做法是,把最後15個真實振幅相加,再除以15。每天重複,去掉最老的那個真實振幅。很多軟體可以自動計算的。

  Eckhardt explained the logic behind “N”: “We found that volatility is something that can be described as a moving average process. Our incorporation of a volatility element in our trading - something that tells us how large our positions should be - has both kept us out of trouble during the tough times and allowed us to capture large gains when things are going our way.”

  埃克哈特解釋了N的邏輯:“我們發現波動性可以通過移動平均的方式來描述。我們在交易中使用波動性的原因是--告訴我們倉位應該有多大--一方面在困難的時候避免麻煩,一方面在順利的時候賺大錢。”

  The Turtles were taught multiple uses of “N,” but first they had to calculate it. Consider this example of “N” calculation:

  首先,海龜們要學會計算N,以下是計算N的例子:

  Table 5.6: September 2006 Kansas City Wheat Futures

  ATR Calculations Example.

  圖5.6:2006年12月份堪薩市小麥期貨

  計算ATR的例子。

(下圖中的文字從左到右分別是:日期,開盤價,最高價,最低價,收盤價,TR1,TR2,TR3,真實振幅,真實振幅的20天移動平均值)

If the “N” for corn was 7 cents and the market was up 5.25 cents, then the market was up three-quarters of an “N.” That’s Turtle jargon. So “N” is a volatility measurement and a useful rule of thumb to classify how far a market has trended. Erle Keefer rattled off Turtle jargon: “When we put a bet on, we never said, ‘I am putting on a $1,000 bet.’ We were taught to think in terms of ‘N.’ ‘I got a one-half N on.’ We were taught that way because for most people, if they start to think, ‘I’ve got $34 million in bonds on,’ then the concept of money gets into their lizard brain and they start saying, ‘Oh, my God!’ We learned the correct way to think was, ‘How much did the market move today?’ It didn’t move thirty-one ticks in the bonds, it moved one and one-quarter ‘N.’ ”

  如果玉米的N是7基點,而市場漲了5.25基點,那麼市場漲了四分之三個N。這是海龜們的術語。所以N能衡量市場的波動性,並知道市場向趨勢的方向前進了多少。爾勒·科夫飛快地說出這個術語:“當我們下注時,我們絕不說‘我下注1000美元。’我們用N思考‘我下注0.5N。’我們被如此培訓是因為大多數人是這樣想的‘我買了3400萬債券。’這樣金錢的概念進入了他們的大腦,他們就會說‘噢,上帝啊!’我們學到的正確思維是‘市場今天波動了多少?’債券不會波動超過31個基點的,它只是波動了1.25個N。”

  The below chart shows “N” plotted below a bar chart of Dell. Notice how “N” can and does change. These values had to be up-dated. Eckhardt updated his volatility estimates every day. He said, “That’s my routine. Two or three times a year I make an adjustment intra-day.”

  下圖是戴爾電腦的N。請注意N是如何變化的。這些資料需要更新。埃克哈特每天更新波動性的計算結果。他說:“這是我的例行工作。我1年內調整2,3次。”

  Chart 5.7: Chart Showing Dell Daily Bars with Daily ATR.

  圖5.7:戴爾的日線竹線,還有日線ATR的圖表

 (上圖中的文字:戴爾電腦的股票價格。2006年3月--9月。)

  Daily Price Chart of Dell Computers with ATR valued in dollars plotted below.

  ATR值用美元表示在價格圖表的下面。

  Athe ATR fluctuates as the market moves up and down on any given day. Source: Price-Data.com.

  ATR的值每天隨著市場的上漲和下跌而波動。

  Once they had a feel for “N,” the Turtles were instructed about how much to “bet.” They bet a fixed 2 percent of their capital on hand on each trade. If they had $100,000, they would bet (or risk) 2 percent ($2,000) on each trade. Each 2 percent bet of their equity was called a “unit.” The “unit” was jargon that they used every day to measure risk.

  一旦他們對N有了感覺,海龜們就要學習賭多少。他們每筆交易只賭總資金的2%。如果他們有100000美元,他們會賭(或者說是冒險)2%,每筆交易都是如此。每一個2%叫一個單位。單位是他們每天衡量風險的術語。

  They had unit limits on any market sector and unit limits on the total portfolio. The unit fluctuated so that every day the Turtles knew how many contracts to have on based on how much money they had in their trading account at that instant.

  他們對每筆交易有單位的限制,對整體投資組合也有單位的限制。海龜們根據資金就能知道該持有多少份合約。

Trading Your Own Account Tip #8:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示8:

  Take your account (whatever size it is) and multiply by 2 percent. For example, a $100,000 account would risk 2 percent, or $2,000 per trade. It is always better to bet a small amount initially on any trade in case you are wrong - which can easily be greater than 50 percent of the time. While the Turtles typically used a 2 percent bet, you can reduce your risk and reduce your return by decreasing that number to, for example, 1.5 percent, etc.

  把你的賬戶乘以2%。比如,100000美元賬戶的2%就是每筆交易只冒2000美元的風險。最好是一開始下注要小,以防止你錯了--50%以上的機會你都是錯的。海龜們總是賭2%,你可以少賭點,比如只賭1.5%,等等。

  The Turtle risk management dictated their stops, their additions to positions, and their equalization of risk across their portfolios. For example, a corn futures contract (a standard corn contract is worth $50 per cent) with an “N” of 7 cents has a risk of $350 (7 cents × $50). If the Turtles received a corn breakout signal (using a 2N stop), they would have had a “contract risk” of $350 × 2, or $700.

  海龜的風險管理對止損,加倉,投資組合都有規定。比如,玉米合約(標準玉米合約每基點的價格相當於50美元的合約)的N是7基點,風險就是350美元(7基點×50美元)。如果海龜們接到了一個玉米的突破信號(止損是2N),他們合約的風險就是350美元×2,也就是700美元。

  Assuming a $100,000 account, they would have had an “account risk” of $2,000 (2% × $100,000). The number of contracts to buy or sell is determined by taking the 2 percent account risk and dividing it by the contract risk. That gives 2.67 ($2,000/$700) futures contracts. Turtles rounded down to the nearest whole number. So when their breakout signal was hit, they traded two corn contracts for their $100,000 account.

  假如賬戶是100000美元,單筆交易風險就是2000美元。要買賣的合約數量就是用合約風險除以2%所代表的風險。那就是買賣2.67(2000美元/700美元)份期貨合約。當然,合約只能買整數,那就是2份合約。所以,當突破信號出現時,他們交易2份玉米合約。

  The rules made a corn unit equal to a gold unit equal to a Coca-Cola unit. This was how Dennis was able to trade markets as “numbers” with no fundamental expertise in any of those markets. It was how the Turtles were able to trade such a wild cross-section of unrelated markets with only two weeks of training.

  這個原則對玉米的規定和黃金,可口可樂都是一樣的,用單位來表示。這就是丹尼斯不用基本面而用數字交易任意市場的原因。這也是為什麼2周的培訓就能教海龜們交易所有的市場。

  Table 5.8: Contract Calculation Method Using ATR in $ Terms.

  圖5.8:用美元來計算合約的ATR【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

 

Market
市場
ATR in $
用美元表示的ATR
2 ATR in $
用美元表示的2ATR
Account Risk
賬戶風險
Contracts Traded at 2 ATR stop
2ATR作為止損的合約數
Corn
玉米
$350
$700
$2,000
2.0
Lean Hogs
生豬
$420
$840
$3,000
3.0
Japanese Yen
日元
$725
$1,500
$1,875
1.0
Ten-Year Notes
10年期債券
$525
$1,050
$2,000
1.0

  However, the Turtles learned another use of “N” beyond a measure of volatility. It was also used as their primary stop (or exit rule, as first mentioned with S1 and S2). The Turtles used a 2N stop. This simply means that their primary stop, or hard stop, was two times the daily “N.”

  除了用N計算波動性,海龜們還學到了另外一個用法。它也是初始的止損點(也叫出場原則)。海龜們把2N做為止損點。簡單說,他們的初始止損點,或叫強制止損點,是日線N的2倍。

  For example, if there was a breakout in corn, and assuming a closing price of $250, Turtles quickly determined their “N” stop. If the “N” was 7 cents, a 2N stop would have been 14 cents. The stop would have been 14 cents behind the entry price. An entry at $250 would have a hard stop at $236 (250 - 14). You would exit if the stop at price level $236 was “touched.” No second-guessing. No overthinking. Follow the rules.

  比如,如果玉米有突破,收盤在250美元,海龜們快速計算N為單位的止損點。如果N是7基點,2N的止損就是14基點。那麼止損點就比進場價低14基點。如果進場是250美元,那麼止損就是236美元(250-14)。如果價格到了236美元,你應該出場。不要懷疑。不要多想。按照原則做。

Trading Your Own Account Tip #9:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示9:

  Assume you are trading Google stock and its ATR is 20. A 2ATR (2N) stop would be 40. If you lose 40 points on Google, you must exit, no questions asked.

  假如你在交易谷歌,它的ATR是20。2ATR(2N)止損就是40。如果谷歌跌了40個基點,你必須出場,不要多問。

  Chart 5.9: Chart Showing Soybean Daily Bars with Daily ATR.

  圖5.9:大豆日線圖,還有日線ATR。

(圖中文字:2004年5月份大豆期貨合約。2003年8月--2004年5月)

  Daily price chart of May 2004 Soybean Futures shows a smaller ATR at the beginning of the trend. A smaller ATR allows for more contracts to be traded via Turtle money-management rules. By the end of the trend, ATR has expanded greatly, reducing the size of the position you can have on. Source: Price-Data.com.

  圖表顯示一開始的ATR很小。海龜資金管理原則同意小ATR則交易更多的合約。到了趨勢結束前,ATR變大了,減少了你持有的合約數量。

  On the other hand, a small “N” allowed Turtles to trade a larger position or take on more units. Soybean units purchased in August (chart 5.9) at the beginning of the breakout were 2.50 times larger than units that could have been bought at the end of the trend. This example is a great reminder of the relationship between market volatility and unit size: A low “N” value always means more contracts (or shares).

  另一方面,小N同意海龜們交易大倉位或交易更多單位。圖5.9中,在突破時的單位是趨勢結束時單位的2.5倍。這個例子提示了市場波動性和單位大小的關係:小N意味著更多的合約(或股數)。

  Jerry Parker found that his best trends often start with very low volatility at the initial breakout entries. He said, “If the recent volatility is very low, not $5 in gold, but $2.50 in gold, then we’re going to throw in a very large position.”

  杰瑞·帕克發現他最好的交易都是從很低的波動性開始的突破進場。他說:“如果最近的波動性很低,黃金不是5美元,而是2.5美元,那麼我們就持有很大的倉位。”

  Parker’s analysis kept showing that a low “N” measurement at the time of entry was a good thing. He said, “I can have on a really large position. And when volatility is low, it usually means that the market has been dead for a while. Everyone hates the market, has had lots of losers in a row, tight consolidation. And then as it motors through those highs, we get on board.”

  帕克的分析說明在進場時選擇小N值的市場總是不錯的。他說:“我可以持有大倉位。波動性低,它通常意味著市場死了一段時間。很多人憎恨市場,很多人連續虧損,不停地整固。當它突破新高時,我們就上車。”

  Unit Limits

  單位限制

  It didn’t matter whether the markets were futures, commodities, currencies, FOREX, or stocks. One unit of corn, through the Turtle rules, had now roughly the same risk as one unit of dollars, bonds, sugar, or any other market in the Turtles’ portfolio.

  市場是期貨、商品、外匯、股票,這個不重要。一單位的玉米,和海龜投資組合中的以單位美元、債券、白糖等等都一樣。

  However, the Turtles could not trade unlimited units. Each unit, after all, represented 2 percent of their limited and finite capital. The Turtles had unit guidelines to keep them from overtrading. For example, they were limited to four to five units for any one market traded.

  然而,海龜們不能交易無限的單位。每個單位代表了有限資金的2%。海龜們有指導原則,不能過度交易。比如,任何市場只能交易4,5個單位。

 This process protected open profits, but not to the extent that it would jeopardize catching a very big trend. This thinking also aimed to guarantee that profits would be plowed back into those big unpredictable trends. This was how Dennis and Eckhardt taught the Turtles to “bet their left nut.”

  這個過程保護了賬面利潤,也不影響抓住大趨勢。這個想法的目的是保證在無法預測的大趨勢時投入利潤。這就是丹尼斯和埃克哈特教給海龜們的“用剩下來的資金去賭。”

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #10:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示10:

  If you want to make Turtle-like money, you will need to use leverage. The key is to always manage your leverage use and not let it get past your limits.

  如果你希望像海龜一樣賺錢,你需要使用杠杆。關鍵就是總是使用杠杆,但不能過度使用。

  Sample Trade to Demonstrate Pyramiding

  金字塔加倉的例子

  This sample trade illustrates how the Turtles pyramided their winning trades.

  這個例子說明了海龜們如何金字塔加倉。

  First Unit

  第一個單位

  Starting account size: $50,000.

  開始的賬戶大小:50000美元。

  Account risk of 2%, or $1,000 per signal.

  賬戶風險是2%,或每個信號1000美元。

  Long signal generated in live cattle at 74.00.

  活牛在74發出了做多信號。

  1N value is 0.80, 1 point in live cattle is $400, so the dollar value of 1N is $320.

  1N是0.80,活牛的1個基點是400美元,所以美元的1N是320美元。

  2N value is 1.60, dollar value of $640.

  2N是1.60,美元是640美元。

  Contracts to trade: $1,000/640 = 1.56 rounded down to 1.0.

  交易的合約是1000美元/640=1. 56,取整數就是1.0。

  Add the next position at 1N, or 74.00 + 0.80 = 74.80.

  下個1N加倉,或是74.00 + 0.80 = 74.80。

  Stop setting is 74.00 - 1.60 = 72.40.

  止損點是74.00 - 1.60 = 72.40。

  Table 5.10: Purchase First Unit of Live Cattle at $74.00.

  圖5.10:在74.00美元買入第一個單位的活牛

  

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Stop
止損點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
72.40
$0.00
$640 (1.28% of original equity)
(原資金的1.28%

 

Addition of Second Unit

  第二個單位

  Account value is now $50,320 ($50,000 + unit one gain of $320).

  現在賬戶的價值是50320美元(50000美元+第一個單位賺了320美元)。

  Account risk of 2%, or $1,006.40.

  賬戶風險的2%,或1006.40美元。

  Second position added at 74.80.

  在74.80加第二個倉位。

  1N value remains 0.80, or $320.

  1N還是0.80,或320美元。

  2N value remains 1.60, or $640.

  2N還是1.60,或640美元。

  Contracts to trade $1,006.40/$640 = 1.57, rounded down to 1.0.

  要交易的合約數1006.40美元/640美元=1.57,取整數就是1.0。

  Add the next unit at 1N, or 74.80 + 0.80 = 75.60.

  在1N處加一個單位,或是74.80 + 0.80 = 75.60。

  Stop setting on both positions is 74.80 - 1.60 = 73.20.

  兩個倉位的止損點是74.80 - 1.60 = 73.20。

  Table 5.11: Purchase Second Unit of Live Cattle at $74.80.

  圖5.11:在74.80美元買入第二個單位的活牛

 

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Stop
止損點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
73.20
$320.00
$320 -0.64%
2
74.80
1
73.20
$0.00
$640 -1.28%
Total
 
2
 
$320.00
$960 -1.92%

  Addition of Third Unit

  第三個單位

  Account value is now $50,960 ($50,000 + unit one gain of $640 + unit two gain of $320).

  現在賬戶是50960美元(50000+第一個單位賺了640美元+第二個賬戶賺了320美元)。

  Account risk of 2% or $1,019.20.

  賬戶2%的風險,或1019.20美元。

  Third position added at 75.60.

  在75.60加第三個倉位。

1N value decreased to 0.70, or $280.

  1N的值減少到0.70,或280美元。

  2N value decreased to 1.40, or $560.

  2N的值減少到1.40,或560美元。

  Contracts to trade $1,019.20/$560 = 1.82 rounded down to 1.0.

  交易的合約數1019.20美元/560美元=向下取整數是1.0。

  Add the next unit at 1N, or 75.60 + 0.70 = 76.30.

  在1N處再加倉一個單位,或是75.60 + 0.70 = 76.30。

  Stop setting on all units is 75.60 - 1.40 = 74.20.

  所有單位的止損點是75.60 - 1.40 = 74.20。

  Table 5.12: Purchase Third Unit of Live Cattle at $75.60.

  圖5.12:在75.60美元買入第三個單位的活牛。

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Stop
止損點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
74.20
$640.00
$0-0.00%
2
74.80
1
74.20
$320.00
$240-0.48%
3
75.60
1
74.20
$0.00
$560-1.22%
Total
 
3
 
$960.00
$800-1.60%

  Addition of Fourth Unit

  加第4個單位

  Account value is now $51,800 ($50,000 + unit one gain of $920 + unit two gain of $600 + unit three gain of $280).

  現在賬戶是51800美元(50000美元+加第一個單位賺的920美元+第二個單位賺的600美元+第三個單位賺的280美元)。

  Account risk of 2%, or $1,036.00.

  賬戶風險的2%,或1036.00美元。

  Fourth unit added at 76.30.

  在76.30加第4個單位

  1N value remained 0.70, or $280.

  1N保持在0.70,或280美元。

  2N value remained at 1.40, or $560.

  2N保持及在1.40,或560美元。

  Contracts to trade $1,036.00/$560 = 1.85 rounded down to 1.00.

  交易的合約數1036.00美元/560美元=1.85,向下取整數是1.00。

  Add the next unit at 1N, or 76.30 + 0.70 = 77.00.

  在1N加下一個單位,或76.30 + 0.70 = 77.00。

  Stop setting on all units is 76.30 - 1.40 = 74.90.

  所有單位的止損點在76.30 - 1.40 = 74.90。

  Table 5.13: Purchase Fourth Unit of Live Cattle at $76.30.

  圖5.13:在76.30美元買入第4個單位的活牛。

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Stop
止損點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
74.90
$920.00
$0-0.00%
2
74.80
1
74.90
$600.00
$0-0.00%
3
75.60
1
74.90
$280.00
$280-0.56%
4
76.3
1
74.90
$0.00
$560-1.12%
Total
 
4
 
$1800.00
$840-1.68%

  Addition of Fifth and Final Unit

  加第5個單位

  Account value is now $52,920 ($50,000 + unit one gain of $1,200 + unit two gain of $880 + unit three gain of $560 + unit four gain of $280).

  現在賬戶額是52920美元(50000美元+第一個單位賺的1200美元+第二個單位賺的880美元+第三個賬戶賺的560美元+第4個單位賺的280美元)。

  Account risk of 2%, or $1,058.40.

  賬戶風險的2%,或1058.40美元。

Fourth unit added at 77.00.

  在77.00加倉第4個單位。

  1N value increased to 0.85, or $340.00.

  1N增加到0.85,或340.00美元。

  2N value increased to 1.70, or $680.00.

  2N增加到1.70,或680.00美元。

  Contracts to trade $1,058.40/$680 = 1.55, rounded down to 1.00.

  交易的合約數1058.40美元/680美元=1.55,向下取整數為1.00。

  Stop setting on all units is 77.00 - 1.70 = 75.30.

  所有單位的止損點是77.00 - 1.70 = 75.30。

  Table 5.14: Purchase Fifth Unit of Live Cattle at $77.00.

  圖5. 14:在77.00美元買入第5個單位的活牛

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Stop
止損點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
75.30
$1200.00
$0-0.00%
2
74.80
1
75.30
$880.00
$0-0.00%
3
75.60
1
75.30
$560.00
$120-0.24%
4
76.30
1
75.30
$280.00
$400-0.80%
5
77.00
1
75.30
$0.00
$680-1.36%
Total
 
5
 
$1800.00
$1200-2.40%

  Turtle stops were adjusted to break even with each 1N market move up.

  市場每上漲1N,海龜的止損就打平。

  Position Exit

  平倉

  Live cattle rallies to 84.50 and their exit criteria are met.

  活牛漲到84.50,那麼出場標準就達到了。

  Table 5.15: Exit Live Cattle at $84.50.

  圖5.15:在84.50美元平掉活牛。

 

Unit
單位
Entry
進場點
No.Contracts
合約數
Exit
出場點
Profit/Loss
利潤/虧損
Risk to Original Equity
原資金的風險
1
74.00
1
84.50
$4200.00
8.4%
2
74.80
1
84.50
$3880.00
7.8%
3
75.60
1
84.50
$3560.00
7.1%
4
76.30
1
84.50
$3280.00
6.6%
5
77.00
1
84.50
$3000.00
6.0%
Total
 
5
 
$17920.00
35.8%

  With this kind of pyramiding, you could have a $300,000 account that was long five units containing Canadian dollars, U.S. dollar indexes, the S&P 500 index, unleaded gas, orange juice, yen, Swiss francs, gold, soybean oil, and cotton. By Turtle trading logic, they would be net long one unit, or 2 percent of the total portfolio.

  用這種金字塔加倉法,你可以用300000美元的賬戶做多5個單位,包括加拿大元,美元指數,標準普爾500股指期貨,無鉛汽油,橘子汁,日元,瑞士法郎,黃金,豆油和棉花。根據海龜交易的邏輯,他們只能做多1個單位,或是總投資組合的2%。

Risk of Ruin: “Will You Live or Die?”

  破產的風險:“你會生存下去,還是破產?”

  Aggressive pyramiding of more and more units had a downside. If no big trend materialized, then those little losses from false breakouts would eat away even faster at the Turtles’ limited capital. How did Eckhardt teach the Turtles to handle losing streaks and protect capital? They cut back their unit sizes dramatically. When markets turned around, this preventive behavior of reducing units increased the likelihood of a quick recovery, getting back to making big money again.

  這種激進的金字塔加倉也有缺點。如果沒有大趨勢,那麼假突破造成的虧損會很快導致海龜們虧損,速度比想象的要快。埃克哈特是如何教海龜們面對一連串的虧損的,如何保護資金的?他們快速地減少倉位單位。當市場反轉時,又開始增加倉位,再次去賺大錢。

  The rules were simple. For every 10 percent in drawdown in their account, Turtles cut their trading unit risk by 20 percent. For example, if they were trading a 2 percent unit and if an 11 percent drawdown happened, they would cut their trading size from 2 percent to 1.6 percent (2.0 × 80%). If their trading capital dropped down 22 percent, then they would cut their trading size by another 20 percent (1.6 × 80%), making each unit 1.28 percent.

  原則很簡單。如果他們的賬戶回吐10%,海龜們就把交易的單位減少20%。比如,如果他們交易的單位是2%,而他們的賬戶回吐了11%,他們就會把交易倉位從2%減少到1.6%(2.0 × 80%)。如果他們的資金跌了22%,那麼就把倉位再減少20%(1.6 × 80%),這樣每個單位就是1.28%。

  When did they increase their unit sizes back to normal? Once their capital started going back up. Erle Keefer remembered one of his peers saying, “Oh my God, I am down so much that I have to make 100 percent just to get back to even.” But that Turtle ended up the year with a nice bonus, because the markets finally started clicking (and trending). Keefer added, “When the statistics finally all work and all those markets start moving, those ‘hot wires’ can start pulling you up pretty fast from a drawdown.”

  他們何時把倉位單位恢復到正常?資金開始上漲了就恢復。爾勒·科夫記得一個同事說:“哦,上帝啊,我虧了很多,要賺100%才能打平。”但是這個海龜年終時拿到了很多獎金,因為市場最終又形成了趨勢。科夫補充說:“當統計數字被證明正確之後,所有的市場開始波動,那些厲害的品種能把你快速從虧損變成賺錢。”

  For example, let’s say you are at $10,000 and you keep losing, then you win a little, then you lose a little. You are now down to $7,500. You are probably trading 40 to 50 percent of your original unit size. All of a sudden everything goes back up to $7,800. It goes up to $8,000, and you start restoring unit size. The Turtles could be down eleven months and one week into the year and then in the last three weeks of the year go from being down 30 or 40 percent to up 150 percent. Look at their month-by-month data from 1984 to 1988 (see Appendix). When the markets kicked in, it was a wild ride.

  比如,你有10000美元,你一直在虧,然後你賺了一點,然後又虧了一點。現在你的資產是7500美元。也許你交易的是你原始單位大小的40--50%。突然,你的資產又到了7800美元。再漲到了8000美元,你開始恢復你的單位大小。海龜們可以在1年零1周的時間里虧損30%或40%,然後在最後3周賺到150%。請看1974年到1988年之間他們每月的圖(附件)。當市場來的時候,是很猛的。

  By reducing positions when they were losing money, the Turtles countered the arithmetic progression toward “ruin” effectively. Dennis and Eckhardt’s logic makes good conceptual sense, even for non-math novice traders.

  虧損時減倉,海龜們計算連續虧損的過程。對於沒有數學概念的新手來說,丹尼斯和埃克哈特的邏輯非常有道理。

  Eckhardt did not want the Turtles to worry about linear decreases in their accounts. The slightest exponential curve from a big trend would eventually surpass the steepest linear curve they saw while losing. Discipline, money management, and patience were the only ways it would work.

  埃克哈特叫海龜們不要擔心賬戶的線性下跌。大趨勢的指數曲線最終會超過虧損時最陡峭的線性曲線。唯一有用的辦法就是紀律、資金管理和耐心。

  This day-to-day routine, however, was mundane. Every day they would come in and there would be an envelope with their name on it. That envelope would have their printouts with their positions. It included updated “N” values, too. That’s right, the Turtles did not have to worry about the basics of calculating “N.” Of course, they learned the hows and whys of “N” from Eckhardt, but the time-consuming calculations were done for them. The Turtles simply picked up their envelopes and checked to make sure their positions and orders were all as they were supposed to be.

  每天的例行工作是平淡的。每天他們來的時候,會看到一個信封,上面有他們的名字。裡面有他們的倉位打印件。包括N值。沒錯,海龜們不用自己的計算N。當然了,埃克哈特告訴了他們關於N的所有知識,並為他們花時間計算N值。海龜們只要拿起信封,檢查自己的倉位和訂單就行了。【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  Liquidation (Exit) Rule Summaries

  出場原則總結

  There were two basic “stops” or exits to get Turtles out of their trades:

  有2個基本的止損或出場:

  1.The 2N stop.

  2.The S1 or S2 breakout exits.

  1.2N止損

  2.系統1或系統2的突破出場。

The Turtles were instructed to take whichever stop hit first. For example, assume you enter any market. Your 2N stop is quickly hit, and you exit with a small loss. That’s easy. On the other hand, perhaps you enter a market and it takes off. A monster trend zooms either up or down. In that case, your S1 or S2 breakout stop would get you out with a profit.

  不管是哪種情況,碰到了止損點,就要止損。比如,你正在交易一個市場。很快你的2N止損點到了,你就要出場,並接受小的虧損。那很簡單。另一方面,也許你剛進場,大行情就啟動了。超級行情不是上漲就是下跌。如果是那樣,用系統1或系統2的突破止損能幫助你兌現利潤。

  This was stomach-churning. David Cheval lived this process working with his then wife Liz Cheval. He said, “When we have good profits, then we’re very aggressive with those profits. We’ll risk 100 percent of the profit in a trade if it doesn’t follow through based on our system.” The Turtles could have had a 50 percent profit in a market, but their stop still might be at their predesignated risk of 2 percent. It was possible for them to lose all of that profit plus the 2 percent.

  這有點緊張。大衛·雪娃和當時的妻子莉斯·雪娃一起經歷了這個過程。他說:“當我們有很好的利潤時,我們就很積極進取。我們會把利潤100%地投入。”海龜的利潤會有50%,但他們的止損還是事前定好的2%。把利潤加上2%都虧掉是可能的。

  Portfolio Selection and Position Balancing

  投資組合的選擇和倉位的平衡

  This philosophy applied to all markets, meaning as long as liquidity and a selection of quality markets existed (and today there is no shortage of those) and there is some inherent volatility in that market (Turtles need movement after all to make money), any market could be traded like a Turtle.

  這個理念對所有的市場都適合,也就是說,只要有市場,只要有流動性,只要有波動性(海龜們通過波動賺錢),那就適合,任何市場都能像海龜那樣交易。

  The Turtles initially traded these markets:

  海龜們最初交易這些市場:

  Table 5.16: Markets Traded Initially By Turtles.

  圖5.16:海龜們最初交易的市場

30-Year T-Bond
30年債券
Deutschmark
馬克
90-Day T-Bill
90天債券
10-Year T-Bond
10年債券
British Pound
英鎊
Gold
黃金
Cotton
棉花
French Franc
法國法郎
Silver
白銀
Sugar
白糖
Japanese Yen
日元
Copper
Cocoa
可可
Canadian Dollar
加拿大元
Crude Oil
原油
Coffee
咖啡
S&P 500
標準普爾500股指期貨
Heating Oil
取暖油
Swiss Franc
瑞士法郎
Eurodollar
歐洲美元
Unleaded Gas
無鉛汽油

  Trading Your Own Account Tip #11:

  交易你自己的賬戶,提示11:

  There is no one set portfolio you can trade. Today, traders trade Turtle-like rules across widely differing portfolios (stocks, currencies, bonds, commodities, etc.). It is a primary reason traders have differing performances. There is also no one starting capital number that can be promised as an elixir for all traders. Some start with small money and get huge. Some start with big money and don’t make it. You will see in later chapters the other pieces of the trading puzzle beyond these rules that separate winners and losers.

  投資組合需要自己研究。現在,使用類似海龜原則交易者的投資組合各不相同(股票、外匯、債券、商品等)。所以他們的交易結果也不同。對於所有的交易者來說,起步資金用多少,這是沒有明確的答案的。有些人的起步資金很少,但他擁有優勢。有些人起步資金很大,卻失敗了。通過後面的章節,你會知道贏家和輸家的區別是什麼。

 However, it was critical to avoid having one of highly correlated markets. In simple terms, think of correlated markets typically moving together in lockstep. Too many potentially correlated markets in a portfolio and the Turtles increased their unit risk.

  然而,避免高度相關的市場,這是很關鍵的。簡單說,相關的市場漲跌是一致的。如果投資組合中相關的市場太多,就增加了海龜們的單位風險。

  For example, the Dow Jones Industrials stock index and the S&P 500 stock index are highly correlated. Both move up and down together. Buying one unit in the Dow and then buying one unit in the S&P is like having two units in either market alone.

  比如,道瓊斯工業指數和標準普爾500股指期貨就是高度相關的。2者同漲同跌。買入1單位道瓊斯工業指數並買入1單位標準普爾就等於在同一個市場買了2個單位。

  Or, assume both Apple and Dell were in a Turtle’s portfolio. Both stocks go up and down together like clockwork. Proper Turtle trading strategy would dictate one unit of Apple. However, if one unit of Dell was also bought, since these two stocks have high correlation, this would be essentially trading double the amount of Apple that should be traded. To trade both stocks was to take twice the risk you should take.

  或,加入蘋果電腦和戴爾電腦都在海龜的投資組合中。這2個股票也會同漲同跌的。正常的海龜交易策略會建議建倉一個單位的蘋果電腦。然而,如果還買了一個單位的戴爾電腦,這兩個股票是高度相關的,那麼就等於在交易2個單位的蘋果電腦。這樣風險就增大了一倍。

  Table 5.17: Table to Show Correlation Effect Between Portfolios.

  圖5.17:相關的市場表

More Risk (Highly Correlated)
更多的風險(高度相關)
Less Risk (Loosely Correlated)
風險小(很少相關)
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Corn
玉米
Gold
黃金
Soybeans
大豆
Gold
黃金
Soybeans
大豆
Silver
白銀
Japanese yen
日元
Five-year notes
5年債券
Japanese yen
日元
Ten-year notes
10年債券
Five-year notes
5年債券
Live cattle
活牛
Sugar
白糖
Crude oil
原油

  Look at table 5.17. Notice that both columns in each table have the same number of markets. They could easily have the same number of units. However, the “More Risk” table has more markets highly correlated to each other. Corn and soybeans, gold and silver, and the two note contracts are all highly correlated. Essentially, Turtles would be trading only four markets. The “Less Risk” table shows a broader grouping of markets with less correlation. For example, historically the Japanese yen and crude oil do not move together.

  請看圖5.17,請注意每個表格中的數字一樣。然而,更多的風險一欄中的市場相關度很高。玉米和大豆,黃金和白銀,2個債券都是很相關的。本質上,海龜們只能交易4個市場。風險小一欄顯示了很少相關的市場。比如,日元和原油就不會同漲同跌。

  The Turtles were also taught that combining long and short units into their portfolio offered further diversification. In fact, when they combined long and short units, Dennis and Eckhardt discovered that they could actually trade more overall units. This was how they were able to load up on so many positions. While they appeared overleveraged in others’ eyes, Dennis and Eckhardt had the Turtles safely under risk management (unit) guidelines.

  海龜們還被告知在投資組合中既要做多,也要同時做空,這樣就更分散。實際上,一旦他們結合了多頭和空頭的單位,丹尼斯和埃克哈特就發現可以多交易幾個單位。這就是他們倉位很多的原因。也許別人會覺得他們過分使用了槓桿,丹尼斯和埃克哈特卻能讓海龜們在風險管理的指導下安全地交易。

  Consider another portfolio example. Assume it is long units in corn, feeder cattle, gold, and Swiss francs, for a total of four long units. Also, assume it has short units in British pounds, copper, and sugar, for a total of three short units.

  還有一個投資組合的例子。假如在做多玉米、飼牛、黃金和瑞士法郎,一共4個多頭單位。同時空頭倉位是英鎊、銅、白糖,一共3個空頭單位。

  To calculate the total Turtle unit risk, you would take the smaller number and divide it by two. Then you would subtract that number from the larger number. In this example it would be 4-(3/2), giving 2.5 units of risk. This is how the Turtles added more units without adding more risk.

  計算出海龜總的風險單位,用最小的數字除以2。用大數字減去這個結果。在本例中是4-(3/2),也就是風險是2.5個單位。這就是為什麼海龜建立了更多的單位,但風險卻沒有增加。

  Why did the Turtles diversify so much? There was no way they could predict which market would trend big, nor could they predict the magnitude of any trend’s move. Miss only one big trend and their whole year could be ruined.

  為什麼海龜們要如此分散?他們沒理由預測到哪個市場有大趨勢,也不能預測到任何市場的趨勢波動情況。只要錯過一個大趨勢,他們的一整年都白費了。

  Table 5.18: (2) Charts That Demonstrate Long/Short Rule Calculations.

  圖5.18:做多和做空原則的計算。

Example One:     Long/Short Rule
例子1:做多/做空原則
Example Two:      Long/Short Rule
例子2:做多/做空原則
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Corn (1)
玉米
Wheat (1)
小麥
Coffee (3)
咖啡
Crude oil (4)
原油
Live cattle (3)
活牛
Sugar (2)
白糖
Natural gas (1)
天然氣
Australian dollar (3)
澳元
Cocoa (1)
可可
Ten-year notes (1)
10年債券
Soybeans (2)
大豆
 
Swiss francs (2)
瑞士法郎
 
S&P 500 (2)
標注普爾500
 
Total: 7
7
Total: 3
3
Total: 8
8
Total: 7
7
Total units of risk: (7 -(3/2)) = 5.5
總的風險單位:5.5
Total units of risk: (8-(7/2)) = 4.5
總的風險單位:4.5

  Total units of risk: (7 -(3/2)) = 5.5 總的風險單位:5.5Total units of risk: (8-(7/2)) = 4.5 總的風險單位:4.5

  That was it. Boom. Two weeks of training, at the Union League Club, was done. With those rules in hand, they entered Dennis’s office space in the old Insurance Exchange building next to the Chicago Board of Trade. They took his money and started trading.就這樣,在聯盟俱樂部為時2周的培訓結束了。有了這些原則,他們走進了位於芝加哥交易所旁邊的老保險交易大樓里丹尼斯的辦公室。他們用他的錢開始交易。

  However, the Turtles were given one more mandate that superseded all the philosophy and rules: Practice. Sure, it might sound clichéd, but it was reality. To put it in perspective, many people see winners like Tiger Woods and make innumerable excuses about why he is great and they are not: “He started learning golf as a toddler.” “He is a natural athlete.” “He earned his titles during a time when golf was lacking top-notch competition.”

  然而,海龜被告知還不能交易,要先練習。這聽起來就是陳詞濫調,但也是事實。很多人看到了泰格·伍玆的成功,就找借口說:“他小時候就開始打高爾夫球了。”“他天生就厲害。”“他贏得頭銜的時候競爭不激烈。”

  The truth? Woods is great because he has the discipline of practice ingrained in him. Look at the tape of him on Johnny Carson when he was three or four years old. Practice, practice, practice - all the time. Woods is famous for saying, “No matter how good you get you can always get better and that’s the exciting part.” That mentality is mission critical for both golf and trading.

  事實是什麼?伍玆偉大是因為練習的紀律。你看看他在3,4歲時的錄影,他一直在練習,練習,練習。伍玆的名言是:“無論你多麼優秀,你還可以變得更好,這就是最激動人心的地方。”對高爾夫和交易來說,這個思想很關鍵。

  Medicine is yet another field where skills develop as a result of repetitive training. Research shows time and time again that medical students are often clumsy at their first tries at performing even such basic procedures as finding a vein to tap for blood work. However, their process of focusing on repetition and discipline consistently produces many competent doctors with long and successful careers.【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  醫學是另外一個領域,在這個領域,重複訓練才能形成技術。研究多次表明:醫學院學生第一次找靜脈的時候都很笨拙。隨著不斷的重複,加上持續一致的紀律,就能造就優秀的醫生。

  For the Turtles there was going to be nothing glamorous - just as with doctors practicing to find a vein. At the end of the day, their training was surely not what they expected (of course how could they have really known what to expect?). But they never truly got a “secret” sauce. As one Turtle put it, “Richard didn’t quite give us the Holy Grail. There’s no single magic element.” Magic or not, once the Turtles finished class they immediately went to work. However, before they started making big money, there were rough patches.

  海龜們也沒有什麼好炫耀的--和醫生找靜脈一樣。到了最後,他們的訓練和他們想像的也不一樣(他們如何知道他們想要什麼?)但是他們確實得到了祕方。就像一個海龜說的:“理查德沒有給我們聖杯。根本沒有任何神祕的東西。”不管有沒有神祕的東西,一旦海龜們完成了課堂學習,他們就開始做事了。然而,在開始賺大錢之前,還要經歷艱難時期。

However, it was critical to avoid having one of highly correlated markets. In simple terms, think of correlated markets typically moving together in lockstep. Too many potentially correlated markets in a portfolio and the Turtles increased their unit risk.

  然而,避免高度相關的市場,這是很關鍵的。簡單說,相關的市場漲跌是一致的。如果投資組合中相關的市場太多,就增加了海龜們的單位風險。

  For example, the Dow Jones Industrials stock index and the S&P 500 stock index are highly correlated. Both move up and down together. Buying one unit in the Dow and then buying one unit in the S&P is like having two units in either market alone.

  比如,道瓊斯工業指數和標準普爾500股指期貨就是高度相關的。2者同漲同跌。買入1單位道瓊斯工業指數並買入1單位標準普爾就等於在同一個市場買了2個單位。

  Or, assume both Apple and Dell were in a Turtle’s portfolio. Both stocks go up and down together like clockwork. Proper Turtle trading strategy would dictate one unit of Apple. However, if one unit of Dell was also bought, since these two stocks have high correlation, this would be essentially trading double the amount of Apple that should be traded. To trade both stocks was to take twice the risk you should take.

  或,加入蘋果電腦和戴爾電腦都在海龜的投資組合中。這2個股票也會同漲同跌的。正常的海龜交易策略會建議建倉一個單位的蘋果電腦。然而,如果還買了一個單位的戴爾電腦,這兩個股票是高度相關的,那麼就等於在交易2個單位的蘋果電腦。這樣風險就增大了一倍。

  Table 5.17: Table to Show Correlation Effect Between Portfolios.

  圖5.17:相關的市場表

More Risk (Highly Correlated)
更多的風險(高度相關)
Less Risk (Loosely Correlated)
風險小(很少相關)
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Corn
玉米
Gold
黃金
Soybeans
大豆
Gold
黃金
Soybeans
大豆
Silver
白銀
Japanese yen
日元
Five-year notes
5年債券
Japanese yen
日元
Ten-year notes
10年債券
Five-year notes
5年債券
Live cattle
活牛
Sugar
白糖
Crude oil
原油

  Look at table 5.17. Notice that both columns in each table have the same number of markets. They could easily have the same number of units. However, the “More Risk” table has more markets highly correlated to each other. Corn and soybeans, gold and silver, and the two note contracts are all highly correlated. Essentially, Turtles would be trading only four markets. The “Less Risk” table shows a broader grouping of markets with less correlation. For example, historically the Japanese yen and crude oil do not move together.

  請看圖5.17,請注意每個表格中的數字一樣。然而,更多的風險一欄中的市場相關度很高。玉米和大豆,黃金和白銀,2個債券都是很相關的。本質上,海龜們只能交易4個市場。風險小一欄顯示了很少相關的市場。比如,日元和原油就不會同漲同跌。

  The Turtles were also taught that combining long and short units into their portfolio offered further diversification. In fact, when they combined long and short units, Dennis and Eckhardt discovered that they could actually trade more overall units. This was how they were able to load up on so many positions. While they appeared overleveraged in others’ eyes, Dennis and Eckhardt had the Turtles safely under risk management (unit) guidelines.

  海龜們還被告知在投資組合中既要做多,也要同時做空,這樣就更分散。實際上,一旦他們結合了多頭和空頭的單位,丹尼斯和埃克哈特就發現可以多交易幾個單位。這就是他們倉位很多的原因。也許別人會覺得他們過分使用了槓桿,丹尼斯和埃克哈特卻能讓海龜們在風險管理的指導下安全地交易。

  Consider another portfolio example. Assume it is long units in corn, feeder cattle, gold, and Swiss francs, for a total of four long units. Also, assume it has short units in British pounds, copper, and sugar, for a total of three short units.

  還有一個投資組合的例子。假如在做多玉米、飼牛、黃金和瑞士法郎,一共4個多頭單位。同時空頭倉位是英鎊、銅、白糖,一共3個空頭單位。

  To calculate the total Turtle unit risk, you would take the smaller number and divide it by two. Then you would subtract that number from the larger number. In this example it would be 4-(3/2), giving 2.5 units of risk. This is how the Turtles added more units without adding more risk.

  計算出海龜總的風險單位,用最小的數字除以2。用大數字減去這個結果。在本例中是4-(3/2),也就是風險是2.5個單位。這就是為什麼海龜建立了更多的單位,但風險卻沒有增加。

  Why did the Turtles diversify so much? There was no way they could predict which market would trend big, nor could they predict the magnitude of any trend’s move. Miss only one big trend and their whole year could be ruined.

  為什麼海龜們要如此分散?他們沒理由預測到哪個市場有大趨勢,也不能預測到任何市場的趨勢波動情況。只要錯過一個大趨勢,他們的一整年都白費了。

  Table 5.18: (2) Charts That Demonstrate Long/Short Rule Calculations.

  圖5.18:做多和做空原則的計算。

Example One:     Long/Short Rule
例子1:做多/做空原則
Example Two:      Long/Short Rule
例子2:做多/做空原則
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Longs
做多
Shorts
做空
Corn (1)
玉米
Wheat (1)
小麥
Coffee (3)
咖啡
Crude oil (4)
原油
Live cattle (3)
活牛
Sugar (2)
白糖
Natural gas (1)
天然氣
Australian dollar (3)
澳元
Cocoa (1)
可可
Ten-year notes (1)
10年債券
Soybeans (2)
大豆
 
Swiss francs (2)
瑞士法郎
 
S&P 500 (2)
標注普爾500
 
Total: 7
7
Total: 3
3
Total: 8
8
Total: 7
7
Total units of risk: (7 -(3/2)) = 5.5
總的風險單位:5.5
Total units of risk: (8-(7/2)) = 4.5
總的風險單位:4.5

  Total units of risk: (7 -(3/2)) = 5.5 總的風險單位:5.5Total units of risk: (8-(7/2)) = 4.5 總的風險單位:4.5

  That was it. Boom. Two weeks of training, at the Union League Club, was done. With those rules in hand, they entered Dennis’s office space in the old Insurance Exchange building next to the Chicago Board of Trade. They took his money and started trading.就這樣,在聯盟俱樂部為時2周的培訓結束了。有了這些原則,他們走進了位於芝加哥交易所旁邊的老保險交易大樓里丹尼斯的辦公室。他們用他的錢開始交易。

  However, the Turtles were given one more mandate that superseded all the philosophy and rules: Practice. Sure, it might sound clichéd, but it was reality. To put it in perspective, many people see winners like Tiger Woods and make innumerable excuses about why he is great and they are not: “He started learning golf as a toddler.” “He is a natural athlete.” “He earned his titles during a time when golf was lacking top-notch competition.”

  然而,海龜被告知還不能交易,要先練習。這聽起來就是陳詞濫調,但也是事實。很多人看到了泰格·伍玆的成功,就找借口說:“他小時候就開始打高爾夫球了。”“他天生就厲害。”“他贏得頭銜的時候競爭不激烈。”

  The truth? Woods is great because he has the discipline of practice ingrained in him. Look at the tape of him on Johnny Carson when he was three or four years old. Practice, practice, practice - all the time. Woods is famous for saying, “No matter how good you get you can always get better and that’s the exciting part.” That mentality is mission critical for both golf and trading.

  事實是什麼?伍玆偉大是因為練習的紀律。你看看他在3,4歲時的錄影,他一直在練習,練習,練習。伍玆的名言是:“無論你多麼優秀,你還可以變得更好,這就是最激動人心的地方。”對高爾夫和交易來說,這個思想很關鍵。

  Medicine is yet another field where skills develop as a result of repetitive training. Research shows time and time again that medical students are often clumsy at their first tries at performing even such basic procedures as finding a vein to tap for blood work. However, their process of focusing on repetition and discipline consistently produces many competent doctors with long and successful careers.【BINGO 投資經驗薈萃】

  醫學是另外一個領域,在這個領域,重複訓練才能形成技術。研究多次表明:醫學院學生第一次找靜脈的時候都很笨拙。隨著不斷的重複,加上持續一致的紀律,就能造就優秀的醫生。

  For the Turtles there was going to be nothing glamorous - just as with doctors practicing to find a vein. At the end of the day, their training was surely not what they expected (of course how could they have really known what to expect?). But they never truly got a “secret” sauce. As one Turtle put it, “Richard didn’t quite give us the Holy Grail. There’s no single magic element.” Magic or not, once the Turtles finished class they immediately went to work. However, before they started making big money, there were rough patches.

  海龜們也沒有什麼好炫耀的--和醫生找靜脈一樣。到了最後,他們的訓練和他們想像的也不一樣(他們如何知道他們想要什麼?)但是他們確實得到了祕方。就像一個海龜說的:“理查德沒有給我們聖杯。根本沒有任何神祕的東西。”不管有沒有神祕的東西,一旦海龜們完成了課堂學習,他們就開始做事了。然而,在開始賺大錢之前,還要經歷艱難時期。

台長: 期指贏家
人氣(2,213) | 回應(0)| 推薦 (0)| 收藏 (0)| 轉寄
全站分類: 財經企管(投資、理財、保險、經濟、企管、人資) | 個人分類: 期股雙贏 |
此分類下一篇:“龜湯”交易法則
此分類上一篇:海龜交易法則中的濾波器

是 (若未登入"個人新聞台帳號"則看不到回覆唷!)
* 請輸入識別碼:
(有*為必填)
TOP
詳全文