本篇是筆者陳朝建，《民進黨正式揮別了扁案陰霾》，中國時報A10版學者專論，2009/12/06（內容是有關台灣在2009年底百里侯選戰即縣市長選戰的選後發展分析）之英文版（由Taipei Times翻譯刊登）......
A victory, maybe, but with some caveats
By Chen Chao-chien 陳朝建
Taipei Times, Thursday, Dec 10, 2009, Page 8
Looking at the results of the mayoral and county commissioner elections on Saturday, nobody would call the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) a winner, because its support declined in Yilan, Hualien, Taitung and Penghu counties. In particular, the party’s decreasing share of the overall vote and its slim victory in Taoyuan serve as warning signs. On the contrary, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) not only maintained its hold on Yunlin, Chiayi and Pingtung counties, but it also regained Yilan and almost took deep-blue Penghu and Taitung counties. In addition, independent candidate Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁), who was expelled by the KMT, won the Hualien County commissioner seat. All this should make President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who serves concurrently as KMT chairman, worry.
The results also show that the DPP, led by Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), has managed to step out of the shadow of former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) corruption cases. In fact, Tsai’s position as leader of the green camp has been boosted.
If we take a closer look, however, we see that it is not that the DPP is winning renewed recognition among voters, but rather that Ma’s halo is fading. The elections were not only a battle among local elites and an expression of local opinion, but also a battle between the two party leaders.
The elections were another example of the “pendulum effect.” There are still many swing voters in Taiwan and both parties should be alert because the voters’ eyes are sharp. The election results can be interpreted as evidence that the DPP is getting back on its feet, but on the other hand the government’s weak response to Typhoon Morakot and the deregulation of US beef imports were turning points that raised opposition to Ma and his government among swing voters.
For Ma, the elections were an important test ahead of his re-election bid in 2012, as will the elections in the five special municipalities next December and the legislative elections in 2012.
The single-member district system is not necessarily unfavorable to the opposition camp and the DPP should stop seeing itself as a victim of the system in last year’s legislative elections. The system is seriously flawed, resulting in overrepresentation or under-representation in terms of seats in relation to number of votes, and the DPP’s percentage of votes increased sharply in Saturday’s elections. It could win pro-blue Taitung and Penghu county at any time, and so long as it can nominate clean and capable candidates, it will not be impossible to cross the boundary between blue and green and create another “green miracle.”
Lastly, as the mayoral and county commissioner elections came to an end, the campaign for the mayoral elections of the five direct municipalities next year has quietly begun. What remains worrying, however, is the question of whether the new government structure with five municipalities and 17 cities and counties will develop into a structure of “rich municipalities and poor cities and counties.” If it does, both the KMT and the DPP will surely value the direct municipalities, look down on the cities and counties, and ignore lower-level cities and towns.
Under such circumstances, the results of Saturday’s three-in-one elections, which involved 40 percent of the population, would be far less significant and the DPP would find it difficult to challenge the national government through local governments by winning poor cities and counties while losing the rich municipalities.
It is thus too early to tell whether the KMT really suffered a defeat in Saturday’s battle.
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Affairs at Ming Chuan University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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