從1978年中國的改革和開放後，早些年中國看來像是自由化和鎮壓的循環。而轉淚點常是政治危機：街頭抗議活動或領導階級的鬥爭，或二者兼而有之。但現在，唯一的大反對運動，只剩西藏和新疆少數民族的暴動，中國的大城市早已經不見任何大的騷動了。中國由全球經濟蕭條中迅速復甦，被視為可能引發起動亂的失業勞工及無法就業地畢業生，都沒出甚麼亂子。經濟成長率為8.7%(2009)，而預期今年也差不多如此。那麼中國為什麼在經濟和政治情勢看好的狀況下，在政治仍然採取高壓統治呢？
領導班底將於一兩年後(2012~2013)有大幅的更動，包括胡錦濤與溫家寶的下台。領導們是否有甚麼權力鬥爭，外界難以得知。薄熙來在重慶大規模掃蕩，被認為是為2012年晉升政治局常委的造勢。習近平、李克強看起來會順利接班。在政局穩定，經濟成長的背景中，近來中國政府強硬地表現（中共在處理西藏、新疆事件多名異議人士遭判刑入獄，對劉曉波處以重刑，到在哥本哈根氣候高峰會議中的強勢...等等）可以解讀是政府中支持國內自由化及與外國和氣交往的力量比西方國家所希望的小了許多。
今年五月上海的世博會又是一個中國得以誇耀自己的舞台。或許就如美國總統柯林頓於1999年對中國的評論：緊握的拳頭事實上顯示那是一隻軟弱的手。
remarks:
1. 現任治局常委：胡錦濤、吳邦國、溫家寶、賈慶林、李長春、習近平、李克強、賀國強、周永康
2. 中國共產党第十七屆中央領導機構 http://big5.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/test/2008-04/30/content_958850.htm
補記:(05:05am, Feb. 23, 2010)
在讀過這篇經濟學人的報導，並把它放到這裡來後，在新聞台讀到「《從劉曉波的耶誕禮物──反思兩岸三地的政治未來》 座談會發言記錄」，這篇或許可以回答標題上的問題：他們在怕什麼？至少我這麼覺得。該文的連結如下：
http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/liaobruce/post/1320657078
The politics of repression in China
What are they afraid of?
The economy is booming and politics stable. Yet China’s leaders seem edgy
Feb 18th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
Illustration by Claudio Munoz
“THE forces pulling China toward integration and openness are more powerful today than ever before,” said President Bill Clinton in 1999. China then, though battered by the Asian financial crisis, was busy dismantling state-owned enterprises and pushing for admission to the World Trade Organisation. Today, however, those forces look much weaker.
A spate of recent events, from the heavy jail sentences passed on human-rights activists to an undiplomatic obduracy at the climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen last December, invite questions about the thinking of China’s leaders. Has their view of the outside world and dissent at home changed? Or were the forces detected by Mr Clinton and so many others after all not pulling so hard in the direction they were expecting?
The early years of what China calls its “reform and opening” after 1978 were marked by cycles of liberalisation and repression. The turning-points were usually marked by political crisis: dissent on the streets, leadership struggles, or both. Now, however, the only big protest movements are repressed ones among ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang. China’s big cities are hardly roiled by political turmoil. By the time Liu Xiaobo(劉曉波), an academic, was sentenced to 11 years in prison in December, dissident debate surrounding the reform manifesto he had issued a year earlier had long subsided. Yet it was the heaviest-known penalty imposed on any activist for “inciting subversion” since such a crime was written into law in 1997.
repression n.
1. the act of using force to control a group of people and restrict their freedom 壓制；鎮壓 uncountable
2. the act of controlling strong emotions and desires and not allowing them to be expressed so that they no longer seem to exist 抑制；克制；壓抑
incite v. to encourage somebody to do something violent, illegal or unpleasant, especially by making them angry or excited 煽動；鼓動
subversion n. 1. 顛覆;覆滅 2. 顛覆因素;破壞因素
China has so far survived the global economic downturn with hardly any of the agitation many once feared it might cause among unemployed workers or jobless university graduates. The economy grew at a very robust-sounding 8.7% last year and is predicted by many to be on course for similar growth in 2010.
Sweeping changes are due in the senior leadership in 2012 and 2013, including the replacement of President Hu Jintao
(胡錦濤) and of the prime minister, Wen Jiabao
(溫家寶). But if a struggle is brewing, signs of it are hard to spot.
An unusually high-profile campaign against organised crime by the party chief of Chongqing municipality, Bo Xilai (薄熙来), has raised eyebrows. Some speculate that it is part of a bid by Mr Bo, who is a Politburo member,
to whip up popular support for his promotion to the Politburo’s all-powerful Standing Committee in 2012. An online poll by an official website chose Mr Bo as the “most inspiring voice” of 2009."
Politburo n. the most important committee of a Communist party, with the power to decide on policy, especially in the former USSR （尤指前蘇聯共產黨的）政治局
raise eyebrows 1. 驚訝或不同意 2. 引人側目;驚訝
whip up 鞭（馬）使飛跑；突然抓住；迅速計劃，很快搞出；煽[挑]動；激起
But Andrew Nathan of Columbia University in New York does not see this as a challenge to the expected shoo-in for Xi Jinping
(习近平), the vice-president, as China’s next leader, despite Mr Xi’s failure last year to garner the leading military post analysts thought would form part of his grooming. Li Keqiang
(李克强), a deputy prime minister, still looks set to take over from Mr Wen in 2013.
grooming n. the things that you do to keep your clothes and hair clean and neat, or to keep an animal's fur or hair clean 打扮；裝束；刷洗；（給動物）梳毛
Against this backdrop of political stability and economic growth, the most credible interpretation of
the government’s recent hard line is that the forces pushing its leaders towards greater liberalisation at home and sympathetic engagement with the West are weaker than had been hoped. Nor is there any sign that the next generation of leaders see their mission differently. As Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based political analyst, puts it: “The argument in policy-making circles where reform is concerned is ‘how much more authoritarian should we be?’ not ‘how do we embark on Western-style democracy?’”
embark on 1. 登上船 2. 從事;開始做
Tough though the recent sentences of activists have been, they are hardly out of keeping with the leadership’s approach to dissent in recent years. This has involved giving a bit of leeway to freethinking individuals, but occasionally punishing those seen as straying too far. Since late last year two activists have been jailed in an apparent attempt to deter people from organising the parents of children killed in shoddily built schools during an earthquake in Sichuan province in 2008. But another critic of the government’s handling of the parents’ grievances, Ai Weiwei, remains free in Beijing and just as outspoken.
leeway n. the amount of freedom that you have to change something or to do something in the way you want to 自由活動的空間
shoddy adj. of goods, work, etc. 商品、工作等 made or done badly and with not enough care 做工粗糙的；粗製濫造的；劣質的
The coming months are unlikely to see much change. Despite boasting of their country’s resilience in the face of the global economic crisis, China’s leaders still appear jittery. Mr Wen has forecast that 2010 will see “even greater complexity in the domestic and international situation”. China’s security chief, Zhou Yongkang
(周永康), in a speech published this week said the task of maintaining social stability “was still extremely onerous”.
resilience n.
1. the ability of people or things to feel better quickly after something unpleasant, such as shock, injury, etc. 快速恢復的能力；適應力
2. the ability of a substance to return to its original shape after it has been bent, stretched or pressed 還原能力；彈力
jittery adj. anxious and nervous 緊張不安的；心神不寧的
onerous needing great effort; causing trouble or worry 費力的；艱巨的；令人焦慮的
Some Chinese economists worry out loud that China’s massive stimulus-spending might have bought the country only a temporary reprieve. Bubbles, they fret, are forming in property markets, inflationary pressure is building up and reforms needed to promote sustained growth (including measures to promote urbanisation) are not being carried out fast enough. Occasionally, even the government’s worst nightmare is mooted as a possibility: stagflation. A combination of fast-rising prices and low growth might indeed be enough to send protesters on to the streets.
fret v. to be worried or unhappy and not able to relax 苦惱；煩躁；焦慮不安
moot v. to suggest an idea for people to discuss propose put forward 提出…供討論 usually passive formal
strut v. to walk proudly with your head up and chest out to show that you think you are important 趾高氣揚地走；高視闊步 V
strut your stuff (informal) to proudly show your ability, especially at dancing or performing （尤指在跳舞或表演時）賣弄自己那一套，露一手
oratorical adj. connected with the art of public speaking 演說的；講演術的 (cf. rhetorical)
pander to something/somebody (disapproving) to do what somebody wants, or try to please them, especially when this is not acceptable or reasonable 迎合；奉迎；投其所好
grim 1. looking or sounding very serious 嚴肅的；堅定的；陰冷的 2. unpleasant and depressing 令人不快的；令人沮喪的
Abroad, Chinese leaders are struggling to cope with what they feel to be an accelerated shift in the global balance of power, in China’s favour. This has resulted in what Mr Moses describes as behaviour ranging from “strutting to outright stumbling”. They reacted with oratorical fury in January, when America announced a $6.4 billion arms deal with Taiwan. But while pandering to popular nationalism at home, they remain aware of China’s limitations. This week China allowed an American aircraft-carrier to pay a port call to Hong Kong, just a day before President Obama was due to defy grim warnings and meet the Dalai Lama in Washington.
Chinese leaders can be confident that the plight of dissidents and the ever-louder grumbles of foreign businessmen over the barriers they face in China will not keep the world away. From May China will be visited by a series of foreign leaders going to the World Expo in Shanghai. Among the first will be France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, much reviled by Chinese nationalists for his stance on Tibet. China sees the Expo, like the 2008 Beijing Olympics, as a chance to flaunt its strength. But, as Mr Clinton noted of China in 1999, "a tight grip is actually a sign of a weak hand”.
plight n. a difficult and sad situation 苦難；困境；苦境
flaunt to show something you are proud of to other people, in order to impress them 炫耀；夸示；誇耀；賣弄
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15546095
The story was taken from the website of "The Economist". The copyright remains with The Economist. The Economist is not involved with, nor endorse the production of this blog.
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