以下是華爾街日報的引述報導(內有之前該報記者訪問筆者的部分論點)
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/05/20/taiwan-president-offers-cloudy-second-term-vision/
•May 20, 2012, 5:48 PM HKT
Taiwan President Offers Cloudy Second-Term Vision
TAIPEI—Those hoping Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s second inaugural address and the press conference that followed would offer a clear blueprint—whether on relations with Beijing and or growing domestic discontent—came away disappointed.
Starting Saturday, tens of thousands of protesters gathered outside the presidential office, with grievances including Mr. Ma’s failure to deliver on two major campaign pledges in his first four-year term: to lower the jobless rate to 3% (the latest data, for March, show a rate of 4.17%) and to accelerate real wage growth (it’s rising at a snail’s pace). The wealth gap remains wide, with the annual disposable income of the top 20% earners now 6.19 times that of the bottom 20%.
Adding to those complaints are the government’s withdrawal of its longtime subsidies on fuel and electricity last month and its plan to reimpose capital-gains tax on stock transactions, which spurred discontent from the middle class and business community.
Such domestic issues have apparently overshadowed Mr. Ma’s noteworthy accomplishments in cross-strait ties, dealing a heavy blow to his once-stellar popularity. Various polls show his support in a range of 15% to 30%—a steep fall for a man who took 51.6% of the vote in the presidential election just four months ago.
During his 30-minute inaugural addressand the press conference that followed, the president repeatedly defended his policies as the “right path”—while adding that the government must communicate its policies more effectively and also show more empathy.
“If he really wanted to listen to the people, then take down the barbed-wire barricades and dismiss the thousands of police around the presidential office,” said office clerk, Wang Yeh-sheng, 37, who stood in the pouring rain to protest during the swearing-in ceremony. “Don’t say you want to walk in our shoes when you won’t even acknowledge our presence.”
In June 2010, Taipei and Beijing signed a landmark trade pact to gradually lift tariffs on goods and investment barriers between the two sides. During Mr. Ma’s first time, 16 cross-straits agreements were reached, including one allowing visits from individual Chinese rather than just tour groups—a much-needed boost for Taiwan’s tourism industry. Despite the lingering mistrust between the two sides—Beijing continues to to assert its right to annex Taiwan by force, according to the latest Pentagon assessment—military tension has relaxed substantially, a much welcomed change to the U.S.
Cross-strait détente and increased bilateral trade helped Mr. Ma to secure a second term, but analysts said the president should not count on help from China, implicit or explicit, in reversing the plummet in his popularity.
It would be unwise for China to take any bold steps to help Mr. Ma, argued Cheng Tuan-yao, a political professor at National Chengchi University, “because it would only make him and his party to appear weak—that they are helpless without China.”
Analysts believe Taiwan is not among Beijing’s top priorities, at least for the time being. It has been pushed down China’s to-do list by the Chinese Communist Party’s rougher-than-expected leadership transition, a domestic economic slowdown and escalating disputes with multiple neighbors over the South China Sea—the latest being a naval standoff with the Philippines.
Taiwan has been lobbying China for a deal on a direct yuan-clearing mechanism, which would reduce the foreign-exchange risk in cross-Strait transactions, as well as offer a new earnings driver for Taiwanese banks. The island is also asking for further lowering of investment barriers in China, particularly for financial institutions, and is hoping to set up a arbitration body to settle commercial disputes. But with Beijing’s plate so full, progress has been very slow.
Chen Chao-chien, a public-affairs professor at Ming Chuan University, would advise Mr. Ma to shift priorities in his second term, putting the focus on domestic issues. “If the president wants to leave a favorable legacy, then he must quell domestic worries by stimulating the economy, sharpening Taiwan’s competitiveness, and lessening the stalemate between the ruling and the opposition party,” he said.
By Jenny W. Hsu and Aries Poon
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