Parched, burnt Australia facing even hotter future, new study finds
SYDNEY (AFP) - Parched and fire-ravaged Australia faces an even hotter
future with more drought and bushfires on the way, government scientists
have found in a new study on the impact of climate change.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (
CSIRO) study has found that by 2030 there will be reduced rainfall, around
double the number of very hot summer days in some states and fewer frosts in
the regions that experience them.
The release of the study, reported in the journal "Nature" by European
researchers last week, coincides with the anniversary of the devastating
Canberra bushfires which killed four people and destroyed 507 homes last
January 18.
More than 3,000 people attended a memorial ceremony Sunday to mark the
disaster.
The study forecasts that the number of days over 35 degrees Celsius (
95 Fahrenheit) would double in Australia's southeastern states by 2030, from
between one and three to between two and six.
"By the year 2030, we expect most of Australia to become 0.4 to 2.0
degrees Celsius warmer on average, with 10 to 50 percent more summer days over
35 degrees Celsius," CSIRO senior research climate scientist Kevin Hennessy
said in a statement last week.
The average number of summer days over 35 degrees Celsius in
Canberra would increase from four days at present to between five and 10 by
the year 2030, the study found.
In Melbourne the average number of days over 35 degrees Celsius
would increase from eight to between nine and 12, in Adelaide from 10 to
between 11 and 16, in Canberra from four to between six and 10, and in Perth
from 15 to between 16 and 22.
In the south and east, which are just emerging from the worst
drought in a century, up to 15 percent less rainfall is expected by 2030,
especially in winter and spring, the report says.
In the southwest, rainfall may decline by up to 20 percent.
"With likely increases in evaporation, this means drier conditions
in future, with reduced water supply and greater water demand," Hennessy said.
"In the southwest, rainfall has already decreased by about 20
percent since the mid-1970s."
Climate change would also lead to between 20 and 80 percent fewer
frosts in those areas that experience frost, such as the capital Canberra.
"Hotter and drier conditions would lead to greater fire risk, more
heat stress for humans, crops and livestock, greater energy demand for air
conditioning," Hennessy said.
"But there will also be less energy demand for winter heating and less
frost damage, so there will be winners and losers."
The findings are consistent with CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
statements about global warming in Australia for some years.
Strategies being introduced to adapt to climate change include water
demand management, such as restrictions and recycling, breeding and
selection of heat-tolerant and drought-tolerant crops, adjusting cropping
calendars to take advantage of a longer frost-free period, more shade and
water for livestock and heat-smart buildings.
"However, some animals and plants may be highly vulnerable to
climate change, with limited options for adaptation," Hennessy said.
"For example, coral reefs are likely to experience more bleaching, and
some Western Australian frogs and east Australian alpine mammals will find
their habitats shrinking as the temperature rises."
Hennessy said the study was consistent with findings that summer
heatwaves would be common in Europe by the end of this century.
The Bureau of Meteorology has said 2003 was Australia's sixth
warmest year since 1910.
最新研究發現：已焦枯的澳洲未來會更熱
（法新社雪梨十八日電） 去年遇逢火劫而慘遭炙烤
的澳洲，災難不斷，科學家就氣候變化進行的最新研究
發現，未來天氣將會更熱，乾旱和林火現象將更頻仍。
由國協科學暨工業研究組織進行的這項研究發現，
二○三○年之前，降雨將愈來愈少、某些省區出現最酷
熱天氣的時日將會加倍，而氣溫較低的地區愈來愈少出
現冰點以下的溫度。
刊載在最新一期「自然」期刊的這項研究報告，其
發布時間正好是坎培拉林火劫難的週年紀念。去年元月
十八日，坎培拉大火奪去四人性命，並燒毀了五百零七
棟屋舍。今天有三千多人聚集一處追思，紀念這場災厄
。
前述研究預測，澳洲東南省分在二○三○年之前出
現攝氏三十五度以上高溫的時日將會加倍，由一至三天
增加到二至六天。
國協科學暨工業研究組織氣候專家海納西表示：「
我們預測到了二○三○年，澳洲多處地區的平均氣溫將
會上升攝氏零點四度至兩度，而氣溫高達攝氏三十五度
以上的熱夏時日將增多一至五成。」
這項研究發現，坎培拉夏季出現攝氏三十五度高溫
以上的平均天數，將由目前的四天增加到二○三○年的
五至十天。
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