Wall Street JournalSeptember 28, 2011, 3:05 PM HKT A Potential Spoiler Roils Taiwan Presidential Race
Having already disrupted one Taiwan election, in 2000, seasoned politician James Soong could be set to complicate another one.
Mr. Soong, 69–a former heavyweight in the ruling Kuomintang, or KMT, before withdrawing his membership in 2000 to run as an independent– announced his candidacy last week to run for president under the People First Party, which he founded the same year he left the KMT.
While Mr. Soong has insisted his effort is for real, many analysts question his true intentions and speculate that he will likely drop out before Jan. 14, when Taiwan heads to the polls.
For example, according to the Central Election Commission, a party nominee needs 257,695 signatures, or 1.5% of the voting population, in order to be an official candidate. But Mr. Soong has vowed that he will stay in the race only if he collects one million names.
“With his waning popularity, he is fully aware he might not get one million signatures in 45 days. He is setting up a way to bow out gracefully when the time comes,” said Chen Chao-chien, a public affairs professor at Minchuan University.
Mr. Soong’s campaign has declined to elaborate on the number of signatures collected one week into the process, only to say the feedback is “not bad.”
He has flamed out before. His best chance to win the presidential seat in 2000 was shattered by a corruption scandal, in which he vehemently denied wrongdoing. Mr. Soong also lost in 2004, when he was the vice-presidential candidate on the KMT ticket with former Taiwan vice-president Lien Chan.
But none of that may matter this time around. According to the latest poll by Global Views, a local polling service, if Mr. Soong stays in the race, he will likely snatch around 10% of the votes. That gets him nowhere close to the presidency of Taiwan, but it sets him up as a power player in the race between incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou and opposition Democratic Progressive Party chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, which remains neck-and-neck.
The fear among some in the KMT is that they may face a repeat of 2000. Mr. Soong’s presence as a third candidate caused a rift within the party, letting the Democratic Progressive Party wrest control of the government from the KMT for the first time in a half century. DPP’s Chen Shui-bian, now in detention for corruption charges, held office for the next eight years before Mr. Ma led the KMT back to power in 2008.
The KMT already issued a public plea to Mr. Soong, calling the two parties “one big family” and saying that the president regards him as a senior figure with influence.
Mr. Soong’s move could be a way to revitalize the PFP, which has no seat in the current legislature after losing most of its lawmakers to the KMT, says Mr. Chen, of Minchuan University. Winning 5% of the legislative seats which will allow the party to set up a caucus, said the professor.
If that’s the case, some observers say, then Mr. Soong may have to finish the race. “Dropping out would cast doubts over his credibility, thus damaging the chances for the PFP legislative candidates,” said Wang Yeh-li, head of the National Taiwan University political science department.
Mr. Soong most divisive influence could be felt on discussions of Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China. Mr. Soong, the only candidate who has shaken hands with Chinese President Hu Jintao, could attract the votes of the older pro-unification die-hards who might ditch Mr. Ma for not forging a closer ties with China.
Asked by a reporter at a Wednesday press briefing if Soong’s candidacy would help “another group opposed to the 1992 consensus,” an oblique reference to the pro-independence DPP, Fan Liqing, a spokeswoman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, declined to comment:
“We never comment on the island’s (Taiwan’s) internal elections,” Ms. Fan said, according to a transcript of the briefing posted on the State Council website. “From the standpoint of cross-strait relations, we hope the two sides can maintain stable development of relations, and hope compatriots on both sides will uphold the peaceful development of relations.”
Ties between Taiwan and China have warmed since Mr. Ma took office. But Beijing still considers Taiwan part of China and won’t abandon military options as a way to unify the country. Ms. Tsai’s DPP favors Taiwanese independence.
Mr. Soong’s effort is being watched closely both inside and outside Taiwan. As Yuanta Securities pointed out in a note, some pundits still believe that Ralph Nader’s 1.6% share of the U.S. presidential vote in Florida 11 years ago may have cost Al Gore the White House.
– Jenny Hsu, with contributions from Aaron Back
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民进党领导人蔡英文软化大陆政策论调-华尔街日报
台湾反对党领导人蔡英文在两岸关系问题上软化了语气，以吸引温和派选民在明年1月举行的台湾总统选举中投她一票。人们预计这将是一场势均力敌的选举。
这位台湾首位女性总统候选人改变了此前的立场。蔡英文曾说，如果她当选台湾总统，将对台湾与大陆达成的里程碑式贸易协议进行全民公决。这项去年签署的协议旨在降低关税并使资金能够在两岸间自由流动，它是台湾现任总统马英九在任期间的最大成就。
蔡英文领导着支持台湾独立的民进党，她在周二举行的一个新闻发布会上说，是否就这项名为两岸经济合作架构协议（ECFA）的贸易协议举行全民公决，将取决于台湾人民。
蔡英文说，去年马英久政府推动ECFA，非常仓促，在没有完整规划和评估下，就提出这个政策，造成社会很大恐慌。她说，我们希望在2012年执政后，对ECFA做完整的评估，让社会知道ECFA带来的利弊。
铭传大学（Ming Chuan University）教授陈朝建说，从蔡英文的态度转变这一事例可以看出，她如何采取“更柔性和更现实的态度”来取悦摇摆不定的选民。
陈朝建还说，从上一次五都选举的情况可以明显看出，摇摆不定的中间选民有可能决定选举天平会向哪一方倾斜。通过在大陆问题上采取更温和的立场，民进党可以从蓝、绿两个阵营吸引摇摆不定的选民，因为台湾民众相信，无论谁当选台湾总统，台湾的大陆政策都不会有急剧改变。
蔡英文说，她领导的民进党支持“和谐、稳定和温和”的大陆政策，这位54岁的法学教授说，她承认中国不断增长的重要性和经济实力，她将继续在平等的基础上与中国大陆谈判，她在谈判中会将台湾的利益放在第一位。
Jenny W. Hsu / Paul Mozur 
