圖1. 該地圖顯示了，在一項由該研究，就2045年的分析所預測，被稱為“火災天氣指數”(FWI)之估量的全球變化(紅色：極端火災天氣加劇；藍色：較少)。FWI獲得了，包括低降雨量及強風在內等狀況，一起增強一種區域極端火災天氣狀況的組合。
This map shows global change in a measure called “fire weather index” (FWI) predicted by the study's analysis for the year 2045 (red: greater extreme fire weather; blue: less). FWI captures a combination of conditions, including low rainfall and high winds, that together increase a region’s extreme fire weather condition.
由美國太空總署高解析度氣候預測之地球交換中心進行的分析下結論，倘若全球氣溫持續上升，且達到超過工業化前水平2度，全世界的人可能同時面臨，具嚴重後果之氣候變遷的多重影響。
Analysis by the NASA Earth Exchange of high-resolution climate projections concludes that, if global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously, with serious consequences.
If global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously.
倘若全球氣溫持續上升，且達到超過工業化前水平2℃(3.6℉)，全世界的人可能會同時面臨，氣候變遷的多重影響。
This is according to a NASA-led study that analyzed the projected impacts of such warming to understand how different climate effects might combine. A 2-degree rise in global temperatures is considered a critical threshold above which dangerous and cascading effects of human-generated climate change will occur.
這是根據美國太空總署所領導，分析了這種暖化推斷的影響，以瞭解不同氣候影響，如何結合在一起的一項研究。全球氣溫上升2攝氏度，被認為是個臨界閾值，超過該閾值，會發生人類招致之氣候變遷，危險且級聯的效應。
The researchers found that more than a quarter of the world’s population could experience an additional month of severe heat stress each year compared to the middle of the 20th century (1950-1979). High temperatures and drought could combine dangerously in places like the Amazon, increasing the risk of wildfire.
此些研究人員發現，與20世紀中葉(1950-1979年)相較下，多於四分之一的世界人口，每年可能多經歷一個月嚴重的熱壓力(負荷)。在類似亞馬遜的地區，高溫及乾旱可能危險地結合在一起，而增加發生野火的風險。
In the American West, extreme fire weather will likely be more intense and last longer. To investigate potentially compounding effects of rising temperatures, the study’s authors worked with a specially processed set of climate predictions.
在美國西部，極端火災天氣可能會更強烈，且持續更長時間。為了調查研究溫度上升的潛在複合影響，該項研究的撰文者們，以一組經過特殊處理的氣候預測，進行了研究。
The predictions were originally generated by 35 of the world’s leading climate models – specifically, contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which includes models developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
此些預測原本是由，35個世界主要氣候模型所產生。特別是耦合模型交互比較計劃(CMIP)的貢獻者們，其中包括美國太空總署(NASA)戈達德太空研究所，開發的諸多模型。
CMIP provides climate projections that help the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other international and national climate groups understand historical, current, and future climate changes.
CMIP提供了，有助於政府間氣候變遷專門委員會，及其他國際間與國家的氣候組織，瞭解過去、當前及未來氣候變遷的氣候預測。
Researchers at the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) then took the output from CMIP6 models and used advanced statistical techniques to “downscale” them, improving the resolution significantly.
之後，於美國太空總署地球交換中心(NEX)的研究人員們，取得了CMIP6 模型的輸出，並使用若干先進的統計技術，來“縮小”它們的規模，從而顯著提高解析度。
NEX uses supercomputers at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California’s Silicon Valley to analyze vast amounts of data collected by aircraft and satellites or, in this case, projections produced by climate models. The resulting NEX dataset supporting this research is available to the public and can be found online.
NEX使用了，NASA位於加州矽谷，艾姆斯研究中心的超級計算機來分析，由航空器及衛星收集的大量數據，或在此事例中，由氣候模型產生的諸多預測。支持該項研究，從而產生的NEX數據集，可資公眾使用，且能在網路上找到。
With the new dataset in hand, NEX researchers at Ames analyzed the downscaled projections to assess the changes predicted for six key climate variables. They examined changes in air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, short- and longwave solar radiation, and wind speed at a point when warming passes 2°C.
在手中有新數據集的情況下，NEX於艾姆斯研究中心的研究人員們，分析了縮小規模的預測，來就六個關鍵氣候變數，評估預測的變化。他們探究了，暖化超過2°C時，於氣溫、降雨量、相對濕度、短波與長波太陽輻射及風速的變化。
“We wanted to study how these aspects of the environment are projected to change and what their combined impacts could mean for people around the world,” said Taejin Park, first author on the paper and a researcher at Ames with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute (BAERI).
在包括灣區環境研究所(BAERI)在內之艾姆斯研究中心的研究員，兼該項論文首要撰文人，Taejin Park宣稱：「我們想要研究，被預測的此些環境層面如何變化，及其綜合影響對世界各地的人們，可能意味著什麼。」
The researchers paid special attention to two climate indicators: heat stress – or the combined effects of temperature and humidity on the human body – and fire weather – which considers temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind. Most regions of the world will experience higher heat stress, they found, while countries closer to the equator will suffer from a greater number of days considered extreme.
此些研究人員特別關注兩項氣候指標：熱壓力(即溫度與濕度對人體的綜合影響)及火災天氣(考慮溫度、降雨量、濕度與風)。他們發現，世界上大多數地區，將經歷更高的熱壓力，而較靠近赤道的國家，將遭受更多經斷定的極端天數。
“The escalating impacts of all the climate extremes studied could cause significant damage to communities and economies, from fires, floods, landslides, and crop failures that may result,” said Ramakrishna Nemani, senior scientist at BAERI and co-author of the study.
該項研究合撰人，灣區環境研究所資深科學家，Ramakrishna Nemani宣稱：「經研究之所有極端氣候，逐步擴大的影響，可能會對社區及經濟造成重大損失。因為，那會導致火災、洪水、山體滑坡及農作物歉收。」
The NEX downscaled dataset used for this research provides global, daily climate projections, derived from CMIP6 climate models, out to the year 2100. The day-to-day nature of the NEX product is important for capturing the extremes. If merged into a monthly average, Park explained, a few days projected to be dangerously hot and humid could get lost in the numbers, concealing the risk for human lives.
供該項研究使用之美國太空總署地球交換中心(NEX)縮小的數據集，提供了源自CMIP6氣候模型，截至2100年，全球、每日的氣候預測。NEX產生之每日發生的自然狀況，就得知此些極端氣候而言，非常重要。Park解釋說，倘若併入月平均值中，被預計之危險炎熱和潮濕的幾天，可能在此些數字中失去意義，而隱匿了對人類生命的風險。
The level of local and regional detail – the resolution of the projections – is higher in the NEX product than most climate projections, which could help leaders develop targeted climate adaptation and mitigation plans.
於NEX產生中之地方及區域的細目水平(預測的分辨率)，高於大多數氣候預測。這可能有助於領導人，展開鎖定氣候適應及緩解計劃。
Raw climate model projections typically give results for areas of about 120 by 120 miles (200 by 200 kilometers), while the NEX downscaling work increases that resolution to about 15 by 15 miles (25 by 25 kilometers).
原始氣候模型預測，通常產生約120 x120英里(200 x 200公里)區域的結果，而NEX縮小研究的規模，提高了那解析度達，大約15 x 15英里(25 x 25公里)。
Downscaling this much data is a big job, and NEX researchers relied on NASA’s powerful Pleiades supercomputer at Ames. Pleiades helps solve some of NASA’s most challenging problems, playing an important role in rocket launches for the Artemis program, fuel-efficient aircraft designs, and studies of Earth’s climate.
縮小此大量數據的規模，是一項艱鉅的工作。NEX的研究人員們依賴 NASA位於艾姆斯研究中心，強大的Pleiades超級電腦。Pleiades協助解決了NASA，一些最具挑戰性的問題。在阿提米斯計劃(Artemis program)的火箭發射、省燃料的飛機設計及地球氣候的研究中，扮演一種重要角色。
NEX scientists hope that the downscaled climate projections could help decision-makers prepare for and protect their regions against climate impacts. For example, a local policymaker could decide to build more flood barriers or pursue less development in flood-prone areas, said Ian Brosnan, co-author of the paper and principal scientist at NEX.
NEX的科學家們希望，縮小氣候預測的規模，能協助決策者為氣候影響做好準備，及保護其地區免遭氣候影響。於NEX的首席科學家，兼該項論文合撰人，Ian Brosnan表示，譬如，當地決策者能決定，在洪水易發地區，建造更多的防洪屏障，或減少開發。
The NEX dataset can also help new commercial and non-profit enterprises develop customized climate-risk assessments for the private and public sectors.
NEX的數據集也能協助，新的商業及非營利企業為私營及公共部門，開發客製化的氣候風險評估。
“The downscaled NASA data is in really accessible form,” Brosnan said. “People everywhere with some technical ability – from undergraduate students to experienced climate scientists – can dig into the information these projections contain.”
Brosnan宣稱：「該縮小的NASA數據，是處於全然可存取的形式。任何地方具有相當技術能力的人們，從本科生到經驗豐富的氣候科學家，皆能深入探究此些預測具有的訊息。」
網址：https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3278/nasa-study-reveals-compounding-climate-risks-at-two-degrees-of-warming/
翻譯：許東榮
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