The global population reached 8bn in November, and will surpass 10bn this century
於2022年11月，全球人口達到了80億，本世紀將突破100億。
(圖援用自原文)
After it emerged in July that Elon Musk had fathered twins last year, the billionaire tweeted that “a collapsing birth rate is the biggest danger civilisation faces by far”.
在去年(2022年)7月，Elon Musk生了雙胞胎後，這位億萬富翁，在推特上表示，“崩潰的出生率是迄今為止，文明面臨的最大危險”。
The UN’s population forecast, published today, should give him partial reassurance. True, birth rates are falling and the population of some countries is shrinking.
今天聯合國公佈的人口預測，可能使他恢復部分信心。確實，出生率正在下降。也就是，一些國家的人口正減少中。
But the UN thinks the number of humans will reach 8bn on November 15th. Its best guess is that the global population will grow to 10.4bn by the mid-2080s, and stay there for the rest of the century. Where will this growth take place?
不過，聯合國認為，到2022年11月15日，人類的數量將達到80億。其最主要的猜測是，到2080年代中期，全球人口將增長到104億，且在本世紀的其餘時間，保持在那點上。此增長會在哪裡發生？
(圖援用自原文)
In 1950 each woman bore five children on average. As families flocked to cities, and women gained education and access to contraception, that number started to fall.
於1950年，平均每位婦女生育五個孩子。隨著家庭湧入城市，及婦女獲得教育與取得避孕方法，那數字開始下降。
The global fertility rate plunged to 2.3 in 2021, and is expected to reach 2.1—roughly the rate at which births offset deaths in populations with low mortality—by 2050.
於2021年，全球生育率降至2.3。預計到2050將達到2.1，約略是低死亡率人口中，出生抵消死亡的比率。
The UN’s population forecast for 2100 is 500m lower than the projection it made in 2019, largely because Chinese women are having fewer children than expected. Humanity will continue making plenty of babies for a while:
聯合國有關2100年的人口預測，比在2019年的預測低5億。主要因為中國女性正在生下比預期少的孩子。人類會繼續產生大量嬰兒一段時間：
the number of newborns is expected to rise from 134m in 2021 to 138m a year in 2040-45. Even so, the world is getting older. Between 1990 and 2019 life expectancy at birth rose by nearly nine years to 72.8. The share of people aged 65 and older will rise from 10% this year to 16% in 2050.
預計新生兒的數量，將從2021年的1.34億，上升到2040-45年的一年1.38 億。在1990年與2019年間，於出生時的預期壽命上升近9歲，達到72.8 歲。65歲及更年長者的部分，將從今年(2023年)的10%上升到2050的16%。
(圖援用自原文)
Although birth rates are falling and lifespans lengthening almost everywhere, differences in age structure and rates of change among countries and regions will lead to huge shifts in their relative sizes. India is expected to replace China as the world’s most populous country next year.
雖然，幾乎在所有地方，出生率正在下降及壽命正在延長中。不過，在諸多國家及地區中，於年齡結構與改變率的差異，在其相對規模上，會導致巨大變化。預計明年，印度將取代中國，成為世界上人口最多的國家。
East Asia, including China, will soon shrink, but South Asia—India’s region—will continue growing for decades. Europe began its demographic decline last year. By the end of the century Germany’s population is expected to be less than 70m, lower than in the 1950s (in high-income countries, any population growth will come from immigration).
包括中國在內的東亞，很快會萎縮。不過，印度所在的地區，南亞會繼續增長，達數十年。去年，歐洲開始其人口的下降。預計到本世紀末，德國人口會少於7千萬。這較少於1950年代(在高收入國家中，任何人口增長會是來自移民)。
But there will be many more Africans, in part because the region’s population is still young. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of the globe’s population will rise from one-seventh today to more than one-fifth by 2050.
不過，會有更多的非洲人。部分原因是，該地區的人口依然年輕。到了2050 年，撒哈拉沙漠以南之非洲地區，占全球人口的部分，將從目前的七分之一，上升到多於五分之一。
Just eight countries will account for more than half the rise in population expected by 2050: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
在人口上升上，預計到2050年，僅八個國家就會佔多於一半：也就是，剛果民主共和國、埃及、衣索比亞、印度、奈及利亞、巴基斯坦、菲律賓及坦尚尼亞。
Disasters, whether natural or man-made, have little lasting effect on birth and death rates. The UN’s boffins are treating today’s combination of calamities—covid-19 and the war in Ukraine—as a “short-term disruption that has no long-term implications”, says Patrick Gerland, the UN’s chief being counter.
無論是天然或是人為災難，對出生率及死亡率鮮少有持久性影響。持不同看法的聯合國人口司司長，Patrick Gerland表示，聯合國的研究者們，將目前2019冠狀病毒症(COVID-19：Coronavirus Disease-19)及烏克蘭戰爭等災難組合，視為“沒有長期影響的短期混亂”。
Good policies, though, can have dramatic effects. In the past 40 years Bangladesh, which raised women’s literacy and employment, has cut its fertility rate from more than six to about two. In Pakistan, of which Bangladesh was once a part, women’s literacy has risen much more slowly. Their fertility has fallen at two-thirds the rate of that of their sisters in Bangladesh.
雖然，諸多好的政策能具有引人注目的影響。不過，在過去40年，提高了婦女識字率及就業率的孟加拉國，已經削減其生育率，從多於6個到大約2個。在孟加拉國曾經是其一部分的巴基斯坦，婦女識字率一直緩慢很多地提升。她們的生育率也已經，以其在孟加拉國之姐妹們，三分之二的比率下降。
Falling birth rates can cause problems, as Mr Musk warns. Fewer workers will have to support more pensioners; societies may become less inventive. But fast population growth in some countries is also dangerous, especially if their economies do not expand quickly enough to employ the young productively.
如同Musk先生的警告，下降出生率會引發諸多問題。較少的工人將必需扶養更多領養老金者；社會將變得較少創造力。不過，於某些國家，快速的人口增長也很危險。特別是，倘若其經濟沒有快速擴張到，足以有效僱用年輕人。
In Angola, where the population has grown by 3% a year since the 1970s, the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day more than doubled from 2008 to 2018. The extra couple of billion people expected by the UN will cause emissions of greenhouse gases, making it even harder to tackle climate change. Mr Musk, a father of nine, should worry most about that.
在打從1970年代以來，人口一直每年成長達3%的安哥拉共和國，每天靠不到1.9美元過活的人數，增加多於一倍。該被聯合國所預計的額外幾十億人，將導致溫室氣體的排放，而使得應付氣候變遷更加困難。那會是，身為9個孩子父親的Musk先生，最擔心的。
網址：https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/07/11/which-countries-are-driving-the-worlds-population-growth?utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20230128&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-4&etear=nl_special_4&utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=1/28/2023&utm_id=1465326
翻譯：許東榮
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