Even as they firefight, governments must resolve the conflict between safe supply and a safe climate
正當它們交戰時，各國政府也必須解決安全供應與安全氣候之間的衝突。
Jun 23rd 2022
This year’s energy shock is the most serious since the Middle Eastern oil crises of 1973 and 1979. Like those calamities, it promises to inflict short-term pain and in the longer term to transform the energy industry.
今年的能源衝擊，是打從1973年及1979年，中東石油危機以來，最嚴重的。與那些苦難一樣，它具有遭短期痛楚所苦，及在較長期中，改變能源工業的可能性。
The pain is all but guaranteed: owing to high fuel and power prices, most countries are facing soggy growth, inflation, squeezed living standards and a savage political backlash. But the long-run consequences are far from preordained.
痛苦幾乎是肯定的：由於高的燃料及電力價格，大多數國家正面臨，令人厭惡的增漲、通貨膨脹、生活水平下降及野蠻的政治反彈。不過，長期後果遠非注定的。
If governments respond ineptly, they could trigger a relapse towards fossil fuels that makes it even harder to stabilise the climate. Instead they must follow a perilous path that combines security of energy supply with climate security.
倘若各國政府不恰當地作出反應，它們可能引發再度回復到使用，使穩定氣候變得更加困難的化石燃料。因此，它們必須依循一條，結合能源供應安全與氣候安全之充滿危險的道路。
In Europe what was long imagined as a nightmare of freezing midwinter nights has instead erupted as a midsummer fever dream. A heatwave forced Spanish gas demand to near-record highs, even as, on June 14th, Russia began to lower the flow of gas along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to western Europe, sending prices soaring by 50% and raising fears that rationing may be introduced later this year.
於歐洲，長期以來被想像為寒冷仲冬夜的夢魘，反而爆發為一場仲夏發熱夢。正當一場熱浪迫使西班牙天然氣需求接近歷史高位時，在2022年6月14日，俄羅斯開始降低，沿著北溪1號管道通往西歐的天然氣流量，使得價格飆升達50%，並引發了人們對於，今年晚些時候，可能提出配給制的擔憂。
Elsewhere, Americans are paying $5 for a gallon of petrol (€1.25 a litre), fuelling the inflation that opinion polls say is their biggest worry and President Joe Biden’s worst headache. Australia’s power market has failed. Everywhere you look there are shortages and fragility.
在其他地方，美國人為一加侖汽油支付5美元(每升1.25歐元)，激起了民意調查所傳達，是他們最大擔憂，且是喬·拜登總統最頭疼的通貨膨脹。澳大利亞的電力市場已經失靈。到處是短缺及脆弱。
Energy shocks can become political catastrophes. Perhaps a third of the rich world’s inflation of 8% is explained by soaring fuel and power costs. Households struggling to pay bills are angry, leading to policies aimed at insulating them and boosting fossil-fuel production, however dirty.
能源衝擊會成為政治災難。或許富裕世界8%的通貨膨脹率，有三分之一是由燃料及電力成本飆升所造成。奮力支付賬單的家庭是憤怒的，導致了諸多旨在隔離他們及提高化石燃料生產的政策，無論怎麼不潔淨。
Mr Biden, who came to power promising a green revolution, plans to suspend petrol taxes and visit Saudi Arabia to ask it to pump more oil. Europe has emergency windfall levies, subsidies, price caps and more.
上台承諾一場綠色革命的拜登先生，計劃暫停汽油稅及訪問沙烏地阿拉伯，以要求其增加石油產量。歐洲有緊急意外獲利稅、補貼、價格上限等等。
In Germany, as air-conditioners whine, coal-fired power plants are being taken out of mothballs. Chinese and Indian state-run mining firms that the climate-conscious hoped were on a fast track to extinction are digging up record amounts of coal.
在德國，隨著空調設備的轟鳴聲，束之高閣的燃煤電廠正被取出(啟用)。被期待具有氣候意識之路線，處於快速消失的中國及印度國營礦業公司，正在挖掘數量創紀錄的煤炭。
This improvised chaos is understandable but potentially disastrous, because it could stall the clean-energy transition. Public handouts and tax-breaks for fossil fuels will be hard to withdraw.
此種出乎意料的混亂是可以理解的，不過潛在上是災難性的。因為，這會阻礙潔淨能源的轉型。交換化石燃料的國際性捐助及稅收減免會很難撤銷。
Dirty new power plants and oil- and gasfields with 30- to 40-year lifespans would give their owners more reason to resist fossil-fuel phase-outs. That is why, even as they firefight, governments must focus on tackling the fundamental problems confronting the energy industry.
不潔淨之新發電廠及壽命30至40年的油、氣田，會給予其所有者更多的理由，來抵制化石燃料的逐步淘汰。這是為何正當在交戰時，各國政府也必須著重於，解決能源工業面對的根本問題。
One priority is finding a way to ramp up fossil-fuel projects, especially relatively clean natural gas, that have an artificially truncated lifespan of 15-20 years so as to align them with the goal of dramatically cutting emissions by 2050.
一個優先事項是找尋一種方法，來增加具有人為縮短15-20年壽命，以便使其與到2050年顯著減少排放之目標，保持一致的化石燃料計劃，特別是相對潔淨的天然氣。
In particular Europe and Asia, which must wean themselves off Russian gas and coal respectively, have too little liquefied natural gas (lng) capacity. The trick is to get business to back schemes designed to be short-lived.
特別是，在本身分別必須放棄俄羅斯天然氣及煤炭的歐洲與亞洲，具有太少液化天然氣(lng)的能力。訣竅是使企業支持，旨在持續不久的計劃。
One option is for governments and energy grids to offer guaranteed contracts over this period that provide an adequate return on the understanding that capacity will be shut down early. Another is to pledge eventual state support to make these projects cleaner, for example through carbon capture and storage.
一種供各國政府及能源網作的選擇是，在瞭解那能力將提早被關閉時，提供足夠回報的此期間，提供有保證的契約。另一種選擇是，承諾最終的國家支持，來使此些計劃更潔淨，譬如，透過碳捕獲及儲存。
This does not mean easing up on the drive towards renewables—the most successful part, to date, of the world’s generally poor response to the climate crisis. Every extra kilowatt-hour from the sun fed into Europe’s electricity grids is one fewer that comes down a Russian pipeline.
這並不意味著，放慢朝向可再生能源的推動(這是迄今為止，世界對氣候危機反應普遍不佳，最成功的部分)。從太陽饋入歐洲電網的每一額外千瓦小時，會是一條俄羅斯管道能減少之較少的一千瓦時。
Governments must improve the reach, capacity and storage capabilities of their grids and remove the obstacles that continue to make it harder to add renewable capacity than it should be. The design of power grids and markets is squarely a matter for governments and they are too often trapped in 20th-century thinking.
各國政府必須提高其電網的覆蓋範圍、容量及存儲能力，並消除持續使增加可再生能源容量，變得比應有之更難的障礙。電網及市場的設計完全是政府的事，不過它們太常被陷入20世紀的思維。
As our Technology Quarterly reports, 21st-century thinking turns on new ways to provide smart, resilient grids with the zero-carbon “firm” power that makes dependence on renewables safe and effective.
如同我們《技術季刊》報導那樣，21世紀的思維轉向了，提供產生依賴可再生能源安全且有效率，具零碳“穩固”電力之智能、有彈性電網的新方法。
Hydrogen stripped from water with renewable electricity, or from natural gas with steam in facilities that store the emissions, may be crucial here. So, in many places, may nuclear power. Climate-conscious atomic enthusiasts often focus on whizzy but unproven small-scale nuclear plants. What matters more is to improve the building of big ones.
使用可再生電力從水中提取氫氣，或在儲存排放物設施中，使用蒸汽從天然氣中提取氫氣，在這點上會是至關重要。因此，在很多地方，可能是核電。具有氣候意識的原子能愛好者，通常著重於新奇、不過未經證實的小型核電廠。更重要的是改進大核電廠的建設。
Where there is strong and co-ordinated anti-nuclear opinion, governments must win support by showing that there are better safeguards against accidents and new ways to store waste, as our report from Finland explains. Politicians need to tell voters that their desire for an energy transition that eschews both fossil fuels and nuclear power is a dangerous illusion.
如同我們來自芬蘭報告所解釋的那樣，於存在強烈且協調一致之反核意見的地方，政府必須藉由展示，有更佳之事故保障措施及新廢物儲存方法，來贏得支持。政治家們需要告訴選民，他們對於避開化石燃料及核能之能源轉型的渴望，是一種危險幻想。
The last necessity is to make the industry predictable. That may sound strange given that 20th-century energy markets coped with wars, coups, revolutions, booming Chinese demand and new technology.
最後的必要性是使此工業是可肯定屬性的。鑑於20世紀的能源市場應付了，戰爭、政變、革命、蓬勃發展的中國需求及新技術，那可能聽起來怪怪的。
But the climate transition has added an extra layer of uncertainty even as it simultaneously requires a massive increase in investment. In order to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, annual investment needs to double to $5trn a year, according to the International Energy Agency. The risk is that this latest crisis, and the chaotic government response to it, make investors warier instead.
不過，正當氣候變遷同時需要大量增加投資時，其已經增添了一層額外的不確定性。根據國際能源署的說法，為了到2050年時，達到淨零排放，年度投資需要倍增，達一年5兆美元。風險是，上述最近的危機，及政府對此的混亂反應，反而使投資者更加謹慎。
Spurring investment means eschewing gimmicks including greenwashing, protectionist plans to build domestic green supply chains, and silly prohibitions by banks on gas projects.
刺激投資意味著，避開包括漂綠(用來說明一家公司、政府或是組織以某些行為或行動宣示自身對環境保護的付出但實際上卻是反其道而行)在內的噱頭、建立國內綠色供應鏈之保護主義者的計劃及銀行對天然氣計劃的愚蠢禁止。
Instead it will require steadily extending measures with more certainty about which energy sources can be used and for how long. That means enhanced disclosure so that firms understand the externalities they create, an expansion of carbon prices so that they have a sense of the cost of pollution, and regulations that mandate the phasing out of dirty technologies.
不過，這將需要具有攸關，哪些能源可被使用及使用多久之更確定的穩步擴展措施。那意味著加強披露，以便公司們瞭解他們創造的形式主義。也就是，擴大碳價格以便他們具有，污染的成本及要求逐漸淘汰不潔技術之法規的意識。
The great energy shock of 2022 is a calamity. But it could also be the moment when better government policy triggers the investment needed to resolve the conflict between having a safer supply of energy and a safer climate.
2022年的巨大能量衝擊是一場災難。不過，這也可能是較佳之政府政策觸發，解決更安全能源供應與更安全氣候之間的衝突，所需投資的時刻。
網址：https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/06/23/how-to-fix-the-worlds-energy-emergency-without-wrecking-the-environment?utm_content=article-link-5&etear=nl_today_5&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=6/26/2022&utm_id=1215435
翻譯：許東榮
文章定位：
