It probably started in Central Asia, around 1338
其可能大約1338年，始於中亞。
Jun 15th 2022
History’s deadliest pandemic was the Black Death, an outbreak of plague that ravaged Europe, the Middle East and north Africa between 1346 and 1353. Where it struck, it killed up to 60% of the population.
歷史上最致命的流行病是黑死病。這是一場，在1346年到1353 間爆發，肆虐了歐洲、中東及北非的瘟疫。其侵襲之處，奪走了多達60%人口的性命。
Even after this first, exceptionally lethal wave had passed, local plagues continued for about 500 years, and the disease still spills over into people from rodent “reservoirs” from time to time.
即使在上述第一波異常致命潮後，當地瘟疫仍然持續大約5百年，亦即這種疾病仍然不時地，從齧齒動物的“儲藏庫”蔓延到人類。
Insight into the Black Death’s origins came in 2012, when Cui Yujun’s team at the Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology sequenced genomes of Yersinia pestis, the plague bacterium, collected from five countries.
對黑死病起源的深入瞭解，發生於2012年，當中國北京微生物學暨流行病學研究所的Cui Yujun團隊，排序收集自五個國家之鼠疫耶爾森氏桿菌(Yersinia pestis，該種瘟疫的細菌)的基因體時。
Dr Cui’s results suggested four lineages of the bug had emerged in quick succession during an evolutionary big bang. Calculations based on the estimated speed of evolution led them to suggest this so-called polytomy happened between 1142 and 1339.
Cui博士的研究結果暗示，在演化大爆炸期間，這種病原菌的四個種系，已經迅速相繼出現。根據估測演化速度的計算，引領他們認為，這種所謂的多分狀態，發生於1142年至1339年之間。
A paper published this week in Nature, by a team led by Maria Spyrou of the University of Tübingen, in Germany, builds on Dr Cui’s work.
一篇由德國蒂賓根大學Maria Spyrou領導的團隊，根據Cui博士之研究的論文，本週發表於《自然》雜誌。
It claims an ancestor of all four lines existed in part of modern-day Kyrgyzstan as recently as 1338—the near-most extremity of Dr Cui’s distribution. This suggests the explosion of diversity he observed was a direct precursor to the plague’s devastating irruption.
該論文聲稱，所有四個種系的原種，早在1338年就存在於，現代吉爾吉斯斯坦(共和國)的部分地區，這是Cui博士之地理分佈最接近的最前端。這暗示，他觀察到的多種爆發，是這種瘟疫具毀滅性侵入的一種直接前兆。
Dr Spyrou and her colleagues concluded this by analysing samples from two cemeteries alongside Lake Issyk-Kul, near the border with Kazakhstan.
藉由分析來自吉爾吉斯共和國，靠近哈薩克斯坦(共和國)邊界，伊塞克湖畔兩處墓地的樣本，做出了此結論。
The gravestones here, which are disproportionately marked with dates corresponding to 1338 and 1339 ad, have attracted plague scholars’ attention for decades, both because of the high mortality rate they imply and of the epitaphs’ invocation of an unnamed pestilence as the cause of death.
在這裡的墓碑，不成比例地標記了，相當於公元1338年及1339年的日期，幾十年來一直吸引瘟疫學者們的注意。因為，它們暗示的高死亡率，及墓誌銘引用一種無名的傳染病，作為死因。
Not until now, however, has DNA analysis been brought to bear on the question. The study just published began when Philip Slavin, a historian at the University of Stirling, in Britain, traced bodies exhumed from the Issyk-Kul cemeteries to a museum in St Petersburg.
不過，直到現在才有DNA分析，被拿來挑戰此問題。剛發表的該項研究始於，英國斯特靈大學歷史學家，Philip Slavin追蹤了，從伊塞克湖墓地被挖掘出的屍體，到俄羅斯聖彼得堡一家博物館時。
He then called Dr Spyrou, who is an expert in the genetic analysis of ancient DNA. She and her team extracted dental pulp from seven individuals whose epitaphs suggested they were plague victims. They chose this tissue for testing because it is protected from decay by the tooth’s enamel.
之後，他打電話給，古代DNA遺傳分析專家Spyrou博士。她及其團隊從七個墓誌銘暗示，是瘟疫受害者的個體，取得了牙髓。她們選擇此種組織進行測試，因為牙髓受到牙齒琺瑯質保護，不會腐爛。
When they compared what they had found with previously published Yersinia genomes, they noted two things. First, DNA from three of the bodies indicated they had indeed been plague’s victims.
當她們進行，其所發現的與先前發表之耶爾森氏桿菌基因體的比較時，她們注意到兩件事。第一件，其中三具屍體的DNA顯示，他們確實曾經是瘟疫受害者。
Second, two of the genomes involved could plausibly have come from a common ancestor of all four known Yersinia branches. This suggests, they say, that the Issyk-Kul outbreak was a crucial moment in the history of the Black Death, and dates the polytomy to the first half of the 14th century.
第二件，涉及的基因體中，兩個可能似乎合理地具有，來自所有四個已知之耶爾森氏桿菌分支的一個共同原種。她們表示，這暗示那次伊塞克湖的爆發，是黑死病史中的一個關鍵時刻，並將此多分狀態追溯到14世紀上半葉。
Dr Spyrou suspects it began in marmots, which to this day remain a plague reservoir, and spread to people as a zoonosis—a transfer from another animal species—which is how many new human pathogens get going.
Spyrou博士懷疑其始於，直到今天仍然是一種瘟疫儲藏庫(宿主)的土撥鼠，且以一種動物傳染病的身分散播給人類(一種從另一動物物種的轉移)。這是諸多人類新病原體，如何傳播的方式。
Dr Spyrou’s proposal conflicts with a high-profile hypothesis published recently by Monica Green, a historian of medicine, that the Black Death was spread westwards by the advance of Mongol armies under Genghis Khan’s successors throughout the 1200s.
Spyrou博士的提議與醫學史學家，Monica Green最近發表之一項備受矚目的假設相衝突。即黑死病是在整個1200年代，成吉思汗繼任者的蒙古軍隊推進時，向西散播的。
This would explain historical mentions of pestilence dating to this period (during the Mongol siege of Baghdad in 1258, for example). It does, however, depend on the polytomy having happened in the 1200s (the middle of Dr Cui’s estimate), rather than the 1300s.
這或許能解釋，歷史上提及之追溯到此時期(譬如，在1258年，蒙古圍攻巴格達的期間)的瘟疫。不過，其確實取決於，曾發生在1200年代(Cui博士估計的居間時期)，而不是1300年代的多分狀態。
In a paper proposing this timeline, published in 2020 in the American Historical Review, Dr Green wrote that her version of events could be falsified by the discovery of the right kind of ancient DNA. It is just such evidence that Dr Spyrou claims to have found.
於2020年，在一篇發表於《美國歷史評論》期刊、提出了此年表的論文中，Green博士陳述，其有關諸多發生之事的看法，可能因發現相當狀況良好的古代DNA，而被證實為錯誤。這正是Spyrou博士聲稱，已經發現的此類證據。
Dr Green disagrees. She says she admires Dr Spyrou and her colleagues’ facility with DNA extraction, and agrees Issyk-Kul is a plausible place for the polytomy. But she questions their conclusion that the polytomy happened shortly before the burials.
Green博士有異議。她表示，讚賞Spyrou博士及其同僚們，在DNA取得的技巧，並同意就此多分狀態而言，伊塞克湖是一處似乎合理的場所。不過，她質疑，Spyrou們有關多分狀態，在埋葬前不久發生的結論。
There is no reason, after all, why something resembling the common ancestor should not hang around for a while, even when its “daughter” strains are established. Though the stakes are lower than in the case of covid-19, the debate on the Black Death’s origin is just as fraught.
畢竟，沒有理由，像共同原種的東西，即使其“子代”種系已經確立，就不可能暫時存在。雖然，此些利害關係比2019冠狀病毒症(COVID-19：Coronavirus Disease-19)的狀況低。不過，有關黑死病起源的爭論，一樣令人擔憂。
網址：https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2022/06/15/the-origin-of-the-black-death?utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20220618&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-5&etear=nl_special_5&utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=6/18/2022&utm_id=1205809
翻譯：許東榮
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