A little more than a year after the first success of a COVID-19 vaccine in a clinical trial, a sense of dread has struck much of the world. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus, first publicly identified on November 24th, may be able to circumvent the defences built up by vaccination or infection with COVID-19.
在2019冠狀病毒症(COVID-19：Coronavirus Disease-19)疫苗，於臨床試驗中，首度成功後一年多，恐懼感已經席捲世界大部分地區。冠狀病毒的 Omicron變異體，於2021年11月24日，首度公開被確認。它或許能夠規避，藉由接種疫苗或感染COVID-19建立的防禦能力。
The World Health Organisation declared that Omicron poses a “very high” global risk. The boss of Moderna, a vaccine-maker, warned that existing jabs may struggle against the heavily mutated new variant. Faced with the ghastly prospect of yet more lockdowns, closed borders and nervous consumers, investors have reacted by selling shares in airlines and hotel chains.
世界衛生組織宣佈Omicron構成一種，“非常高的”全球風險。疫苗製造商，莫德納公司老闆警告，現有的疫苗接種可能搏鬥嚴重突變的新變異體。面對更多封鎖、關閉邊境及緊張之消費者的可怕前景。投資者們已經作出的反應是，出售航空公司及連鎖飯店的股票。
The price of oil has slumped by roughly $10 a barrel, the kind of drop often associated with a looming recession.
石油價格已經下跌，一桶達大約10美元。這種下跌通常與迫在眉睫的衰退有關。
As we explain this week it is too early to say whether the 35 mutations on Omicron’s spike protein help make it more infectious or lethal than the dominant Delta strain. As scientists analyse the data in the coming weeks, the epidemiological picture will become clearer. But the threat of a wave of illness spreading from one country to the next is once again hanging over the world economy, amplifying three existing dangers.
儘管本週我們認為，現在判斷Omicron棘突蛋白上的35個突變，是否有助於使其比優勢的Delta病毒株，更具傳染性或致死性，尚為時過早。隨著科學家在未來幾週分析此些數據，該流行病學的事態將變得更清晰。不過，一波疾病從一個國家蔓延到另一個國家的威脅，正再次籠罩世界經濟，放大了三種現有風險。
The first is that tighter restrictions in the rich world will damage growth. On the news of the variant, countries scrambled to block travellers from southern Africa, where it was first identified. Israel and Japan have closed their borders entirely. Britain has imposed new quarantine requirements.
首先是，在富裕國家中，更嚴格的諸多限制會損害成長。面對該變異體的消息，各國爭先恐後地阻止，來自其首先被發現之南部非洲的旅客。以色列及日本已經完全關閉邊界。英國則強行新的檢疫要求。
The pandemic abruptly ended a freewheeling era of global travel. Restrictions were being eased this year, but the past week has shown that gates are slammed shut much faster than they are opened.
這場大流行病突然結束了，一個隨心所欲之全球旅行的時代。今年諸多限制正在被放寬，不過上周已經顯示，大門被砰然關上比被打開更快得多。
The spread of Omicron is also likely to intensify limits on free movement at home. Europe was curbing many domestic activities even before the variant arrived, in order to fight surging infections of Delta. Italy is keeping most of the unvaccinated out of indoor restaurants, Portugal requires even those who are vaccinated to have a negative test to enter a bar and Austria is in full lockdown.
Omicron的㪚播也很可能増強，對國內自由行動的限制。甚至在該變異體出現之前，歐洲就在限制諸多國內活動，以對抗不斷上升的Delta感染。意大利將大部分未接種疫苗的人拒於餐館門外，葡萄牙要求即使接種過疫苗的人，有陰性測試才能進入酒吧，而奧地利是處於全面封鎖
The long-awaited recovery of the rich world’s huge service industries, from hospitality to conferences, has just been postponed.
富裕國家從餐旅業到會議廳等，龐大服務業期待已久的復甦，剛被延緩。
A lopsided economy fuels the second danger, that the variant could raise already-high inflation. This risk looms largest in America, where President Joe Biden’s excessive fiscal stimulus has overheated the economy and consumer prices rose by 6.2% in October compared with the previous year, a three-decade high.
一種不均衡的經濟激起了第二種風險。也就是，這種變異體可能引發已經高的通貨膨脹。在美國，這種風險最為突顯。美國總統Joe Biden過度的財政刺激，已經使得經濟過熱，且在10月份消費者價格，比前一年上漲達6.2%。這是30年來的新高。
But inflation is also uncomfortably high elsewhere, at 5.3% globally, according to Bloomberg data.
不過，根據彭博社的數據，其他地方的通貨膨脹也高得令人不安。全球為 5.3%。
You might think Omicron would lower inflation, by depressing economic activity. In fact it could do the opposite. Prices are rising in part because consumers are bingeing on goods, bunging up the world’s supply chains for everything from Christmas lights to trainers. The cost of shipping a container from the factories of Asia to America remains extraordinarily high.
您可能認為，因為抑制經濟活動，Omicron會使通貨膨脹降低。事實上，可能導致相反。物價正上漲中，部分因為消費者對於商品的狂熱，堵塞了從聖誕燈飾到運動鞋等，所有東西的全球供應鏈。將一個貨櫃從亞洲工廠運往美國的成本，仍然非常高。
For overall inflation to recede, consumers need to shift spending back towards services like tourism and eating out. Omicron may delay this. The variant could also trigger more lockdowns in key manufacturing nodes such as Vietnam and Malaysia, aggravating supply glitches. And cautious workers may put off their return to the labour force, pushing up wages.
為了消弭整體通脹，消費者需要將支出轉向旅遊及外出用餐等服務。Omicron可能延滯上述服務。該變異體也可能引發，在諸如越南及馬來西亞等，關鍵製造中心點的更多封鎖，從而加劇供應失常。因此，謹慎的工人們可能延遲重返勞動力市場，從而推高工資。
That may be one reason why Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, indicated on November 30th that he favours monetary tightening. That stance is right, but brings its own dangers. The spillover effects could hurt emerging economies, which tend to suffer capital outflows and falling exchange rates when the Fed tightens.
那可能是，為何美國聯邦儲備系統(也就是美聯儲)主席，Jerome Powell於2021年11月30日，表明贊成貨幣緊縮的一個原因。那立場是正確的，不過也帶來了其自身風險。當美聯儲緊縮時，此些溢出效應可能傷害，往往招致資本外流及匯率下跌的新興經濟體。
Emerging economies have greater reserves and depend less on foreign-currency debt than they did during the Fed’s botched attempt to unwind stimulus during the taper-tantrum of 2013. Yet they must also cope with Omicron at home. Brazil, Mexico and Russia have already raised interest rates, which helps stave off inflation but may reduce growth just as another wave of infections looms.
新興的經濟體擁有，比它們在2013年漸減恐慌期間，美聯儲拙劣之企圖擺脫刺激期間，擁有的更多儲備，且較少依賴外幣債務。不過，於國內他們也必須應付Omicron。巴西、墨西哥及俄羅斯已經提高，有助於避免通貨膨脹，不過就在另一波感染赫然聳現之際，可能降低經濟成長的利率。
Turkey has done the opposite, cutting rates, and faces a collapsing currency as a result. More emerging economies could confront an unenviable choice. The final danger is the least well appreciated: a slowdown in China, the world’s second-biggest economy. Not long ago it was a shining example of economic resilience against the pandemic.
土耳其已經採取降低利率的相反做法，結果因此面臨貨幣崩潰。更多新興的經濟體可能面臨一種令人困窘的選擇。最後的風險是最不受歡迎的：世界第二大經濟體，中國經濟放緩。不久前，它是對抗此大流行病之經濟復原力的一個卓越典範。
But today it is grappling with a debt crisis in its vast property industry, ideological campaigns against private businesses, and an unsustainable “zero-covid” policy that keeps the country isolated and submits it to draconian local lockdowns whenever cases emerge.
不過目前，它正努力對付，在其龐大房地產業的債務危機、針對私營企業的意識形態運動，及在出現病例時，使該國保持孤立狀態，及使其經受過苛之局部封鎖、不可持續的“零冠狀病毒症”政策。
Even as the government considers stimulating the economy, growth has dropped to about 5%. Barring the brief shock when the pandemic began, that is the lowest for about 30 years.
即使當政府考慮刺激經濟之時，成長也已經下降達大約5%。除去此大流行病開始時的短暫衝擊，那是約30年來最低的。
If Omicron turns out to be more transmissible than the earlier Delta variant, it will make China’s strategy more difficult. Since this strain travels more easily, China will have to come down even harder on each outbreak in order to eradicate it, hurting growth and disrupting supply chains.
倘若Omicron證明是比較早的Delta變異體更具傳播力，這會使中國的策略更難對付。由於該病毒株更容易傳播，在每次爆發時，為了根絕它，中國將不得不作出，影響成長及擾亂供應鏈的更嚴苛決定。
Omicron may also make China’s exit from its zero-covid policy even trickier, because the wave of infections that will inevitably result from letting the virus rip could be larger, straining the economy and the health-care system. That is especially true given China’s low levels of infection-induced immunity and questions over how well its vaccines work.
Omicron也可能使中國退出其零冠狀病毒症的政策，更為慎重。因為，起因於任由此病毒肆虐之不可避免的感染潮或許會更大，而繃緊經濟及醫療保健體系。鑑於中國由感染引起之免疫力低的水平，及對其疫苗效果如何的諸多疑點，那是特別肯定的。
It is not all gloom. The world will not see a re-run of the spring of 2020, with jaw-dropping drops in GDP. People, firms and governments have adapted to the virus, meaning that the link between GDP and restrictions on movement and behaviour is one-third of what it was, says Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs表示，這並非全是陰霾。世界不會看到重演2020年春季，在GDP方面令人瞠目結舌的下降。人們、公司及政府已經適應這種病毒。意味著，GDP與諸多限制對行動及行為之間的關聯性，是原來的三分之一。
Some vaccine-makers expect fresh data to show that today’s jabs will still prevent the most severe cases of the disease. And, if they must, firms and governments will be able to roll out new vaccines and drugs some months into 2022. Even so Omicron—or, in the future, Pi, Rho or Sigma—threatens to lower growth and raise inflation.
一些疫苗製造商預期新數據顯示，目前的疫苗接種仍然能預防，該種疾病最嚴重的病例。而且，倘若必須，公司及政府將能夠進入2022年的幾個月內，大量生產新疫苗及藥物。即便如此，Omicron(或，在未來，Pi、Rho或Sigma)仍威脅降低成長及提高通貨膨脹。
The world has just received a rude reminder that the virus’s path to becoming an endemic disease will not be smooth.
世界剛收到一則，該病毒成為地方性疾病的道路，不會是進展順利的粗略暗示。
網址：https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/12/04/what-the-omicron-variant-means-for-the-world-economy?itm_source=parsely-api
翻譯：許東榮
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