Nations Cut Back and Shadow of 1930s Looms
各國緊縮開支，大蕭條年代陰影重現
By David Leonhardt The New York Times _ United Daily News pages 7 on Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The world’s rich countries are now conducting a dangerous experiment. They are repeating an economic policy out of the 1930s – starting to cut spending and raise taxes before a recovery is assured – and hoping today’s situation is different enough to assure a different outcome.
全球各富裕國家正在進行一場危險的實驗。它們正在重複一項曾經施行於1930年代的政策：在經濟復甦尚未成為定局之際，就開始緊縮開支並加稅，同時指望今天的局面與當年頗為不同，以確保結果也會不同。
In effect, policy makers are betting that the private sector can make up for the withdrawal of stimulus over the next couple of years. If they’re right, they will have made a head start on closing their enormous budget deficits. If they’re wrong, they may set off a vicious new cycle, in which public spending cuts weaken the world economy and beget new private spending cuts.
事實上，決策者希望民間部門能夠在未來幾年內，彌補經濟刺激政策收回後出現的落差。如果他們得遂所願，即可開始減少龐大的預算赤字。如其不然，另一波惡性循環就會展開。屆時，公共開支縮減將導致全球經濟更加疲弱，同時觸發另一波民間開支縮減潮。
There is good evidence to support either prediction.
這兩種結果的預測，都有充分的證據予以支撐。
The private sector in many rich countries has continued to grow at a fairly good rate in recent months. Unlike in the 1930s, developing countries are now big enough that their growth can lift other countries’ economies. And in the United States, wages, total hours worked, industrial production and corporate profits have all risen significantly.
最近幾個月，許多富裕國家的民間部門繼續享有相當不錯的成長。有別於1930年代，開發中國家的經濟成長力道已經大到足以帶動其他國家的經濟。在美國，薪資、總勞動工時、工業產值與公司利潤均已大幅增加。
On the other hand, the most recent economic numbers have offered some reason for worry, and the coming fiscal tightening in this country won’t be much smaller than the 1930s version. From 1936 to 1938, when the Roosevelt administration believed that the Great Depression was largely over, tax increases and spending declines combined to equal 5 percent of gross domestic product.
另一方面，最近公布的一些經濟數據也足以令人引以為憂，而美國即將展開的財政緊縮，規模更不會比1930年代小太多。1936年至1938年之間，羅斯福政府認為，大蕭條大致上已經結束。在這種情況下，這段期間的加稅與開支縮減合計相當於國民生產毛額（GDP）的5%。
Back then, however, European governments were raising their spending in the run-up to World War II. This time, almost the entire world will be withdrawing its stimulus at once. From 2009 to 2011, the tightening in the United States will equal 4.6 percent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund. Worldwide, it will equal a little more than 2 percent.
然而，當時處於二次大戰爆發前夕的歐洲各國政府卻紛紛增加開支。這一次，幾乎全世界都將同時收回經濟刺激措施。國際貨幣基金認為，2009年至2011年之間，美國緊縮開支的規模估計相當於GDP的4.6%。全世界的緊縮開支規模約等於全球GDP的2%多一點。
The simultaneous moves have the potential to unnerve consumers, businesses and investors, says Adam Posen, an American expert on financial crises working for the Bank of England. “The world may be making a mistake, and it may turn out to make things worse rather than better,” Mr. Posen said.
英格蘭銀行（英國的中央銀行）的美國籍金融危機專家亞當．波森表示，各國同時收手可能導致消費者、企業、投資人膽顫心驚。他說：「全球各國可能正在犯下一個錯誤，結果或許會使局面更加惡化，而不是好轉。」
But he added, “The chances we’re going to come out of this O.K. are still larger than the chances that we aren’t.”
不過他接著說：「我們度過難關的可能性，還是比過不了關要大。」
In the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes’s central insight about depressions – that governments need to spend when the private sector isn’t – was not widely understood.
1930年代，約翰‧梅納德．凱因斯有關經濟蕭條的核心洞見─即政府必須在民間部門減少開支時，擴大支出─並未獲得多數人的理解。
In 2008, though, policy makers in most countries knew to act aggressively. The Federal Reserve and other central banks flooded the world with cheap money. The United States, China, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Europe, increased spending and cut taxes.
然而在2008年，多數國家的決策者都知道，他們必須積極主動。美國聯邦準備理事會與各國中央銀行向世界市場大舉拋出代價低廉的資金。美國、中國、日本相繼增加開支並減稅，歐洲亦復如此，只是動作沒有那麼大。
It worked. By early last year, within six months of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, economies were starting to recover.
這麼做收到了效果。至去年初，各國經濟已開始逐漸復甦，距雷曼兄弟公司破產還不到半年。
The recovery has continued this year, and it has the potential to create a virtuous cycle. Higher profits and incomes can lead to more spending – and yet higher profits and incomes. Government stimulus, in that case, would no longer be necessary.
復甦延續到了今年，而且可能形成良性循環。更高的利潤與收入可能造就更多開支，而開支增多又會進而造就更高的利潤與收入。在這種局面下，政府的經濟刺激措施亦不復有其必要。
But the parallels to 1937 are not reassuring. From 1933 to 1937, the United States economy expanded more than 40 percent, even surpassing its 1929 high. But the recovery was still not durable enough to survive Roosevelt’s spending cuts and new Social Security tax. In 1938, the economy shrank 3.4 percent, and unemployment spiked.
然而當今局面與1937年之間的對比無法令人絕對放心。1933年至1937年之間，美國經濟擴張達40%以上，幅度甚至超越1929年的高峰。然而儘管當時經濟復甦力道如此強勁，卻仍然承受不起羅斯福縮減開支及新推出社會安全稅的重擊。1938年，美國經濟萎縮了3.4%，失業率驟升。
Given this history, why follow the same course today?
既已有史為鑑，為什麼各國如今還要走同樣的路？
Greece has no choice. It is out of money. Several other countries are worried that financial markets may turn on them, too, if they delay deficit reduction. Spain falls into this category, and even Britain may. Then there are the countries that still have the cash or borrowing ability to push for more growth, like the United States, Germany and China, three of the world’s biggest economies. Yet they are also reluctant.
希臘毫無選擇餘地；它已經國庫空虛。部分國家則擔心，如果它們遲遲不能降低赤字，金融市場可能也會以它們為炒作攻擊的目標。西班牙就面臨這樣的處境，就連英國都不無可能。另外的一些國家仍然握有可用於創造更多成長的資金或舉債能力，例如身為全球最大經濟體的美國、德國與中國。然而它們同樣猶豫不決。
China, until recently at least, has been worried about its housing market overheating. Germany has long been afraid of stimulus, because of inflation’s role in the Nazis’ political rise. In responding to the recent financial crisis, Europe, led by Germany, was much more timid than the United States, which is one reason the European economy is in worse shape today.
至少直到最近，中國一直擔心它的房市會過熱。德國基於通膨曾經導致納粹在政壇崛起的歷史教訓，始終對刺激政策懷有疑懼。在因應最近這一波金融危機的過程中，以德國為首的歐洲國家遠比美國畏首畏尾。這也是歐洲經濟情況目前比美國為糟的原因之一。
Finally, the idea that rich countries need to cut spending and raise taxes has a lot of truth to it. The United States, Europe and Japan have all made promises they cannot afford.
最後，所謂富裕國家必須減少開支並增稅的說法確實很有道理。美國、歐洲與日本都許下了自己無力踐履的諾言。
In an ideal world, countries would pair more short-term spending and tax cuts with long-term spending cuts and tax increases. But not a single big country has figured out, politically, how to do that. Instead, we are left to hope that we have absorbed just enough of the 1930s lesson.
在理想的世界裡，各國必然以更多短期的撙節開支、減稅搭配長期的減少開支及增稅。然而至今仍無任何一個大國琢磨出，如何才能在兼顧政治現實的情況下做到這一點。相反的，我們只能期待自己確實已經從1930年代的歷史記取了足夠的教訓。
歐洲債信問題、墨西哥灣漏油的處理、以及經濟狀況這些生活中息息相關的事件，
除了持續關心， 還真協助不了什麼呢！
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