不沾鍋與沾不了鍋＠台灣安全促進會新聞台

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不沾鍋與沾不了鍋

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不沾鍋與沾不了鍋

陳茂雄

正常國家文化基金會政策中心日前公布最新民調，顯示二0二四總統大選在民進黨、中國國民黨、民眾黨參選人賴清德、侯友宜、柯文哲「三腳督」情況下，賴清德以三十四%支持度領先侯友宜的二十三%和柯文哲的二十三%。事實上更近的民調顯現柯文哲已追近賴清德，將侯友宜拋在後面，因而藍營出現「換侯」之聲，只是中國國民黨表示那只是少數幾個人的意見，該黨不會隨其起舞。然而中國國民黨卻出現切割侯友宜的現象。

侯友宜已成立競選工作室，其成員僅限於原來的侯團隊，其陣仗簡直是在選新北市長。前秘書長李乾龍於一日邀請前總統馬英九、前立法院長王金平等多位黨內大老晚餐，李乾龍當時表示，侯友宜可邀請王金平擔任競選總部主委。王金平於三日出席台師大校慶活動，他答覆媒體詢問，婉拒出任競選總部主委的原因時說，他與侯團隊不熟，要磨合不容易，加上他現在還有許多工作，像是許多社團需要他主持，因此沒辦法專心在選務上，但他還是會全力支持。

假如中國國民黨依制度舉辦初選，任何人出線都可以穩定的投入選戰，只是該黨玩「人治」的徵召，無論誰出線都不能服眾，有人主張全代會前兩人再做一次民調，果真如此，第二次民調輸的人是否可以要求再做第三次民調？該黨真正的問題是中國法統勢力不能接受純種的台灣人擔任總統候選人，他們會一路打侯友宜，賴清德反而在一邊涼快。

政壇上在野黨當然意圖擊跨執政黨以便取而代之，中國國民黨對民進黨出擊乃意料中事，只是該黨抓不住主流民意，提出的主張常常衝撞主流民意，自己受創，例如四大公投就是主流民意所不認同，其目標本來要打擊民進黨，結果是自己受創，像這一類事情侯友宜不會阻止該黨推出，卻嚴厲的切割，自已完全沒有受傷，因而可以維持很高的民意支持度。

只要可能出現負面的效應，侯友宜一律不碰，然而他的「不沾鍋」又與馬英九有很大的差異，馬英九只維持他個人「不沾鍋」，其他人他完全不理會。侯友宜則不同，他追求的是整個團隊「不沾鍋」，一則可以建立團隊的形象，一則可以凝聚團隊的向心力，例如恩恩事件，若是其他人當市長，早就處裡掉，很明確的，該事件有人失職，但還未達到違法的層次，市長只要祭出行政調查，對失職者處以行政處分，就可以結案，只是此結果會出現兩件效應是侯友宜所不希望看到的，第一，侯友宜不能利用此案凝聚團隊，第二，侯團隊顯現出汙點。

為了提升民意支持度，侯友宜不願意祭出行政調查，而改司法調查，他很清楚，恩恩案沒有到達違法程度，依循無罪推定的原則下，在司法上不是不起訴就是無罪，侯團隊可以大聲疾呼「司法還我清白」，侯友宜不只可凝聚侯團隊，更可提升侯團隊的形象，長期來侯友宜的民調居高不下，是因為他的手段高明，切割不合主流民意的政策，促使整個團隊不沾鍋。只是這種陣仗沒辦法打總統選戰，總統選戰須很多團隊結盟才能達標，不能不沾鍋。

平時侯友宜帶著侯團隊堅守不沾鍋的信念，切割中國國民黨，因而人氣盛。現在想登九五，需要擴展團隊，只是他以往不沾鍋，現在則沾不了鍋，他可守住百里侯，卻難登九五。

（作者為中山大學退休教授、台灣安全促進會會長）

http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/news/mhchen0201

2023/6/5（台灣時報專論）

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不沾鍋與沾不了鍋

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