Stable investment to fill the short board
Recently, relevant departments have expressed their stance and demanded that the local government special bond issuance and use progress be accelerated.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, the total amount of special bonds issued in the first half of this year was 367.3 billion yuan. According to the planned scale of 1.35 trillion yuan, nearly 1 trillion yuan of special bonds will be issued before the end of this year. According to the latest proposal of the Ministry of Finance, “the proportion of new special bond issuance at the end of September should not be less than 80% in principle, and the remaining issuance quota should be mainly issued in October.” In the next one and a half months, the scale of special bond issuance will exceed 8,000. 100 million yuan.
According to industry insiders interviewed by China Securities Journal, the local government special bonds that are speeding up are mainly used in the areas of people's livelihood such as transportation, telecommunications, education, health care, etc. The purpose is to stabilize investment, expand domestic demand, and make up shortcomings. It is expected that the accelerated issuance of local special bonds will appear in the second half of the year to ensure the effectiveness of projects under construction. It should be emphasized that in promoting the issuance of special bonds, efforts should be made to strengthen risk management and avoid the emergence of new hidden debts.
The release schedule needs to be accelerated
According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, the issuance of special bonds for local governments in the first half of the year was relatively slow. This year, the State Council arranged a special amount of local government bonds of 1.35 trillion yuan. In the first half of the year, local government special bonds issued only 367.3 billion yuan.
“The issuance of special bonds in the first half of the year was slowly affected by multiple factors.” pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the first is subject to China’s bond issuance system. At present, the local government special bond issuance lacks a unified regulatory body, and there is no effective supervision and development synergy, which has a greater impact on the issuance of special bonds. Second, it is subject to local government leverage. The level of leverage of local governments in some parts of China is relatively high. Under the background of the decline in the growth rate of social welfare, the local government has a clear wait-and-see attitude. Third, the primary bond market has a poor transmission mechanism to the secondary market, which has affected the issuance efficiency. Fourth, this year's special debt quota was issued late. The March budget only disclosed the quota for the issuance of special bonds in 2018, after which the special bonds were officially issued, which means that the issuance pressure is concentrated in the second half of the year.
In order to speed up the issuance of special bonds, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in the Issuance of Special Bonds for Local Governments" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), the provincial financial department should reasonably grasp the rhythm of special bond issuance and scientifically arrange this year. In the next few months, especially the August and September release plans, the release schedule will be accelerated. On the 15th, the Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission and the spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission said at the briefing of the State Council, in the second half of the year, it is necessary to speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds this year.
In pan Xiangdong’s view, speeding up the issuance of special bonds, in addition to the slow issuance in the first half of the year, there are two reasons: “One is the current downward pressure on the economy, and the special debt is a tool for active fiscal policy. On the other hand, local government special debts have the characteristics of independent accounting and special funds, and their investment can be controlled. Accelerating their issuance can lead more funds to the people's livelihood and prevent 'big flood irrigation' ."
Zhao Quanhou, director of the Financial Research Center of the China Academy of Fiscal Science, said in an interview with the China Securities Journal that speeding up the issuance of special bonds is an important measure for the economic development situation this year and for the implementation of the "positive fiscal policy to be more active." In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment fell, and accelerating the issuance of special bonds could create conditions for accelerating infrastructure investment.
Make a steady investment to fill the short board
Referring to the local special bond investment, pan Xiangdong said that the special debt is a bond issued by the local government for a specific project financing, and its specific investment will follow the policy orientation. From the perspective of investment projects, special bonds will be invested more in the areas of people's livelihood such as transportation, telecommunications, energy, education, health care, etc., while stabilizing infrastructure investment while making up for the corresponding shortcomings; from the investment area, special bonds will be biased towards rural areas and the central and western regions. . The infrastructure in rural and central and western China is still very backward, and it needs to fill shortcomings. This is also the need to implement balanced economic development and rural revitalization strategies. In addition, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan Districts are important strategies for China's economic development, and special debts will also be tilted towards these areas.
Liu Wei, deputy finance minister, has made clear that this year's new local government special bonds will increase by 550 billion yuan compared with 2017, mainly supporting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and other major strategies as well as precise poverty alleviation, eco-environmental protection, and shantytown transformation. The field is prioritized for the smooth construction of projects under construction.
"It is expected that the accelerated issuance of local special bonds will show the effect of the projects under construction in the short term." Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the smooth construction of projects under construction can enable infrastructure construction. The downward trend of investment has been curbed, but it is difficult to change the overall weak pattern of infrastructure investment.
The construction of a project under construction requires financial support. “The bond issuance is to give full play to the financing effect. The sooner the funds are in place, the construction project can receive timely financial support.” Zhao Quanhou said that the “Opinions” issued by the Ministry of Finance not only emphasized the acceleration of the use of bond funds, but also the facts. The local government is authorized to transfer the funds for the bond funds that have been arranged in the budget, and the funds will be replenished in time after the bond issuance financing, which reflects the more positive financial position.
Focus on strengthening risk prevention and control
In the face of the nearly trillion yuan of special bonds to be issued centrally, how to prevent risks? pan Xiangdong believes that before the issuance of special bonds, it is necessary to strictly examine the issuance risks of local governments, and limit the issuance of special debts in areas with relatively high debts and relatively low fiscal revenues. Local governments issue special bonds to strictly screen the projects they invest in, including whether the project meets the central government's policy orientation, potential rate of return and other financial information, as well as market acceptance. In addition, the issuance of special bonds should be promoted in a market-oriented manner. The local government should disclose the specific project information of the special debt investment, and the rating agencies should do their due diligence to do a good job of investigation and give a reasonable rating; the issuance rate should be market-oriented, which can reflect the project's income and risk characteristics; the issuance scale and duration are diversified. It can avoid concentration of debts in the future and increase the cash flow burden. At the same time, after the issuance of special bonds, it is necessary to gradually lock the debt risk on the projects invested, avoid government guarantees, and establish a market-based default repayment mechanism.
Zhao Quanhou said that in promoting the issuance of special bonds, efforts should be made to strengthen risk management. Unlike general bonds, special debts should pay more attention to investment efficiency and risks, improve credit rating and information disclosure mechanisms, and raise market risk awareness among all parties. In the design of special debt varieties, it is necessary to increase the attractiveness, find practical and feasible projects, and enhance the design capability of varieties. For the problem of insufficient quotas for a single local bond issue, for bonds of the same variety and different phases, due to consistent market transactions, a “bond system” issuance system can be established.
In the deployment of this year's local government debt management work, the Ministry of Finance requested to improve the management of special bonds, and on the basis of strictly matching the issuance of special bonds with the project, accelerate the realization of the use of bond funds and project management, debt repayment, and bonds. The term matches the project term. In terms of information disclosure, it is important to disclose financial and economic information such as government fund budget income, special debt risk, and bond information such as bond size, interest rate, maturity, specific use items, and debt repayment plan.
Liu Wei stressed that it is necessary to effectively protect the financing needs of projects under construction, but these projects must comply with relevant policies and incorporate relevant plans. This is a project that should be promoted locally. It should not be a blind spread beyond the financial level, and avoid new hiddenness. debt.
The article was transferred from: http://www.xinhuanet.com/money/2018-08/20/c_1123294020.htm