Right, I’m going to do that market rhythm once again, just for the new people coming in. I’m going to put in on Post number 1 as the #1 important file they have to go to, apart from reading the original .pdf file. FOR THIS IS THE HEART OF THIS SYSTEM.
對的,我準備將那個市場的節奏再講一遍,為這些新來的人。我準備將他放到第一貼的位置,作為他們要看的不得不看的最重要的文件,出了閱讀4H MACD交易策略原始版之外的最重要的文件。因為這是4H MACD交易策略的心臟。
Now if you look at the picture above, on the graph. On the left hand side the price come down below the 89 and 200 and came down to point number 2. Then there’s a pull back to the 21EMA. Then the price closes above the 21EMA and then it back below the 21EMA and point number 3. And then it closes back up at the 89. That is the rhythm at the end of either a down move or an up move.
現在只要看看上面的圖形,在圖形上,左邊從89和200均線跌下來,跌到2位置。這時發生了一個拉回到21EMA。然後價格緊緊靠著21ema之上,然后又跌到21ema之下到達位置3,然後又向89均線上漲。這種上上下下的價格運動就是市場節奏
What I included here is if you look between the yellow line (the 200 SMA) and the blue line the (89SMA). Look at that rectangle that I’ve drawn there. The price has been confined in between the two moving averages, which is very important to notice that it oscillates between them before it gets direction. Now look at the MACD at the bottom. People trading just the MACD are going to get burned there. You HAVE TO KNOW the Rhythm of the Market. Between the confined spaces like that, those two moving averages, the market is oscillating between them. So if you want to get involved there in trading, you have to trade off the edges. Because the market is not in a trend, it is flat. You don’t need an indicator to tell you the market is flat now, you see it within those two moving averages. The moment the price went in between those two moving averages at point 4, crossing the 89 upwards and it didn’t go through the 200. And then it came down to the 89 again, it means it’s between those two moving averages. It did not go through the 89 coming down again. So now we either have to trade from the edges, taking them as support and resistance, or you have to wait for it to show direction.
這裡你看到的包括黃色的200SMA線和藍色的89SMA線,你看我畫的方框裡面,價格被限制在兩條均線之間,注意到市場在有方向前,價格在兩條均線間振盪很重要。現在看看底部的MACD,人們交易如果僅僅知道MACD,將被市場灼傷。你不得不了解市場的節奏。就象這裡限制的空間,市場在這兩條均線間震盪。所以日過你準備介入交易,你要不得不在這個邊緣以外交易,因為市場沒有趨勢,是平的。你不需要一個指標告訴你市場現在是平的,你從兩條移動均線就看到了。價格在進入兩條均線間的4位置,突然穿越89均線向上,但沒有穿過200均線,然後又跌到89均線,這意味著價格會在這兩均線間運動,他也沒有再跌破89均線。所以現在你或者不得不沿著他們的邊緣交易,依據他們作為阻力和支撐,或者等待他們選擇方向。
At point 5, that’s where it broke above the 200, and then that huge candle upward that broke upward was on a Friday afternoon, and I won’t get involved there. But just to the left of the number 6, if you look at the MACD on the bottom give you trend continuation pattern, a TC. Beautiful off the 8 EMA to get in there. Look what happens between point 6 and point 7. The price came below the 21, so what were we expecting according to the rhythm of the market? Expect it to go back to the 21 and then come down to the
89. But it did not! It kept on moving upwards. It just closed below the 21 and then it just carried on. That’s the two scenarios. It’s not to say that it is going to come down to the 89, that’s just the anticipation. And you have to wait until it proves it. If it doesn’t prove it, you don’t trade. It’s as easy as that.
在位置5,那里他突破了200均線,突破向上的那個大陽線在週五的下午,我沒有介入,在後面6的位置,如果你看下面的MACD,他告訴了你趨勢繼續的形態,一個TC,漂亮的脫離EMA8進入,看看6和7之間發生了什麼,價格回到EMA21之下,,所以我們根據市場節奏期望什麼呢?期望他回到EMA21,然後回到EMA89,但沒有。市場一直向上, 他僅僅收在EMA21之下,然後繼續進行。這是兩個情節,這不是說價格將回到EMA89,這僅僅是預料,你不得不等待直到證明了這個預料,如果不能證明,不要交易,就是這樣容易。
What happened is only when it went up that huge candle. Look at that trend line I have at just above point number 6. The price went above it, it pulled back to it, and the 8EMA, the MACD at the bottom gives you a TC, a trend continuation pattern, you enter there and you’re well away.
那根向上的大陽線後發生了什麼?看看趨勢線,我畫在6位置上面,價格到了6之上,價格又拉了回來,EMA8和MACD給你一個TC,一個趨勢繼續的形態,你從那進入,這是正確的方法。
Point number 8, the price starts coming back and closes below the 21. You won’t get it more perfect than that one. It came down below the 21 at point number 9 and pulled back to the 21 at point number 10, coming down to the 89. That’s the rhythm of the market. And that’s exactly where we have found ourselves since Monday morning (Jan. 7, 2008) in the market. We were at the 21 after a bit of an up move through the 89, it wasn’t a very strong up move, but it was an up move. Then the price came and closed below it. It pulled back to it, just above it, then it started coming down towards, well not the 89 in this case, but the reason why is that the 200 is between the 21 and the 89. But the price is still coming down, so there is nothing preventing it from coming down to the
89.
在8處,價格開始往回走,收在EMA21下方,你再沒有比這更完美的了,在9處跌到EMA21下方,10處回到EMA21,然後跌到89均線。這就是市場的節奏。這是我們週一早晨前所發現的準確市場節奏, 我們在ema21位置,一個向上移動穿過89均線,不是一個強的向上運動,但是一個向上的運動。然後價格到了,收在其下方,折回了。原因是200線在ema21和89均線之間,但是價格繼續向下,這樣再沒有阻擋價格直到89均線**www.irich.com.cn交易之路收集整理**
So for you people that just started this thread, I wanted you to hear this first. And the reason for it, is because this is the Heart of This System. The MACD plays a very important part, but the MACD is not the sole indicator that you use to pull the trigger. If you do that you will get burned. If you want to do that you have to take each and every MACD signal, you can’t miss a one, otherwise random is going to take you out. Or you have to take the good ones. And what I say to new people coming in, take the trend continuation patterns. The TC patterns which are off the 21. Or off the 8EMA if the price is constantly moving the along the 8EMA making those pull backs back to the 8EMA and then moves away. That’s a Trend Continuation pattern on the MACD.
對於剛開始嘗試這種交易方法的人來說,我想你先聽這個,原因是:這是4H MACD交易策略的心臟,MACD扮演重要的作用,但是MACD不是觸發你交易的唯一指標,如果你那麼做,很快就會死掉。如果你緊緊依靠MACD,你不得不依賴每個信號MACD,你一個也不能漏掉,或者隨機的出場,或者你可能最好的那個。我要對新人說的是,做趨勢繼續的形態。TC形態(趨勢繼續形態)就是遠離21EMA,或者遠離8EMA,如果價格不變的沿著8EMA運動,或者折回8EMA,然後接著運動。這就是MACD上的趨勢繼續形態。
Be very careful to take Round Tops and Round Bottoms. You got to know a bit more about the market emotions in terms of candles to take Round Tops and Round Bottoms. Unless it’s way over bought or over sold. Let’s say it’s moved above the 45 horizontal line on the MACD. You’ll see on the MACD indicator that there are some horizontal lines, that 15, 30 and 45. The reason they are there is to tell your how much oversold/overbought the pair are. So if it has moved a quite a lot above the 8EMA and your oversold above the 45 horizontal line and it starts giving a nice round top, you can enter on market emotion (on candles) and the MACD confirming the nice Round Top.
對於圓弧頂和圓弧底需要非常小心,你開始按K線了解一點市場特性,形成圓弧頂和圓弧底,無非是超買或超賣,也就是說超過MACD45水平線的時候。這些線你可以在MACD指標上看到這些水平線,還有15和30,他們告訴你這個貨幣對超賣超買的程度。所以價格運動在8EMA之上相當一陣子,macd 在45水平線上超賣位置,macd開始走出一個漂亮的圓弧頂,你可以按市場的脾氣(按K線)進入,MACD確認了這個圓弧頂。
You can go counter trend, but you must look at the 8EMA, because it can bounce off the 8EMA continuing or going on with the trend. So you have to take some profit there are cover the rest. With either a Break Even (BE) or use the little profit you’ve made to the 8ema as part of stop loss on the remainder. So that way if you are taken out, you get break even on the deal. Round Tops and Round Bottoms are counter trend and are always more risky than going with a trend. So I would suggest as a start to do your first month or two with only trend continuation patterns. In fact it you only trade Trend Continuation patterns you will succeed with a lot of pips every month. I guarantee you’ll get more than 300 per month on an average. There might me a month where you get only 150, but then there will be months that you get 450 or 500. So that’s what I tell people is to firstly due the trend continuation pattern.
你可以反趨勢做,但你要看住EMA8,因為價格會試探遠離8EMA繼續或按趨勢繼續。所以一旦走出日內K線時,你最好了解一些利潤。以打成平手或留下一部分利潤作為剩下的頭寸止損。所以如果你出來了,你打成平手。圓弧頂和圓弧底是逆勢的,比趨勢繼續形具有更大的風險,所以我建議初學者第一、第二口交易只作趨勢繼續型。事實上如果你緊緊做趨勢繼續型,一個月下來你會賺很多點。我保證你平均至少會超過300點每月(EURUSD),這可能是我一個月的盈利,你可能只有150點,但今後你可能達到450點或500點。所以我告訴初學者從趨勢繼續型開始
This rhythm that I just showed you, you have to go back and see it for yourself. Go through and do some back testing. Another thing about back testing, in MT4, MetaTrader 4, if you scroll back on your chart and use “F12” (function key f12), you can shift only one candle at a time. Do that and that will help you as you don’t know what’s coming and you can make your decisions based on what you see on the chart. And see how well it goes with you and how well it doesn’t go. Don’t take every MACD signal. You CANNOT DO THAT. MACD is there to help you pull the trigger, yes, IF other things are in place. Like today’s trade (Jan. 9 ,2008), 12:00-16:00 candle you can see there that the MACD has just went through zero above and then pulled back and then gave a red signal/bar below the zero. We call that a zero break. Very slightly above the zero, I would have preferred it to be more visible, but it was there. What I like about it was if you look at the 8:00-12:00 candle, there was an engulfing candle that suggests that the market was coming down. And if even you look at the 1 hour chart, just to make sure about the emotion of the market at that specific point, you will see that there was an evening star that helped me make that decision.
我將市場節奏秀給你看了,你最好回去再好好看看,往前看看複複盤。另一件事是複盤,MT4裡,如果你移動你的圖形用F12功能鍵,每次你只可以移動一根K線,這樣做可以幫助你在不知道後面將怎麼發展的情況根據圖形狀態來作決定,可以檢查你判斷的怎樣。不要每一個MACD信號都交易,你一定不能那樣做,MACD是幫助你觸發交易,是的,當然其他條件都具備,當然可以那樣交易。像這天的交易,12:00-16:00K線,你看到MACD正好穿過0軸,馬上發生了一個折回,馬上給出了一個紅的信號,macd棒又到零以下了。我們叫這種情況是零突破,比0高那麼一點,我喜歡更清楚一點的,但他不是我喜歡的這樣。我喜歡這種的,你看8:00-12:00的K線,那是一根吞沒K線表明市場馬上向下了。如果你緊緊看1H線,正好以看到一個黃昏之星,確認市場轉折發生在那一點,幫助你作出決定。
So don’t just take the MACD itself. Familiarize yourself with the market motion and market rhythm as I’ve discussed it here on the graph that I’ve posted. Because that is the Heart of This System. And if the market is doing anything else in that rhythm you sit on the sidelines. You wait until it shows rhythm again. Not trending, not necessary that it be trending, although the biggest part of the profit lies in the trending market. But you can also see it when it’s coming down at the end of run when it comes down pulling back to under the 21EMA then goes back to the 21 EMA and then comes down to the 89. If there is a major moving average, like today, for example the 200SMA which was above the 89, it most probably only go back to the 200 and stay a little bit there. And if the information or the news, or whatever it is that drives the market is good enough or has some force behind it, it will most probably move through it and come down to the 89SMA.
所以不要僅僅按MACD交易,讓你自己習慣按市場脾氣和市場的節奏交易,像我貼出來的這個圖形上討論的這樣交易。因為這是4H Macd交易策略的心臟。如果市場無所作為,按他的節奏,你就觀望。你等待直到再次出現新的節奏。沒趨勢就不要交易,因為利潤來源於有趨勢的市場。但你可以看到,這一波的末尾,價格下來的時候折回到21ema,然後又回到21ema,然後跌到89均線,如果這裡有個主要移動均線,像這天,例如200均線,在89均線上方,很可能到達200均線呆一會,如果有新聞或消息,市場被足夠驅動,可能穿過200均線,然後又回到89均線。
Well that’s it for this rhythm part, but really you have to get this under belt, for that’s what this system is all about. Don’t take too many trades. Only 8-12 per month per currency pair. I would say 8 per month per currency pair. If you go more than that you start looking for trades. I hope this is going to help you all. If you finished here then you can go back and start reading the thread and then you will now something about the RHYTHM and the Hearth of This System.
好,這是節奏部分,你不得不被他約束,因為這正是系統主要內容。不要做很多交易,一個貨幣對8-12單就足夠了,我要說的是一個貨幣對,8單每月。如果你超過這個數,你開始尋找交易,我希望這都能幫上你,如果你完成了這些交易,你可以回頭再來看看這個話題,你會更好的理解市場節奏和這個交易策略的心臟。
MACD與KDJ的職業應用
兩條移動平均線相互驗證 相互背離的交易法是查拉爾得創造的,在他的計算公式中這兩條移動平均線的天數已被設定,但我們仍可在軟體上自行選擇,股市中一般選擇6天於12天,股票指數期貨市場可以選擇4天於9天。兩條平均線圍繞著日線演變,當短期移動平均現向上穿過長期移動平均線時,發出買進信號,當短期移動平均線向下穿過長期移動平均線時發出賣出信號。
MACD一般可作為中期指標研究,其基本原則於葛南維原則有相似之處,也可以用於判斷短期反轉點。它的原理是運用短期(快速)和長期(慢速)移動平均線聚合和分散的征兆加一雙重平滑運算,用來研判買進與賣出的時機,該指標特別適合運用於大盤股 不活躍股 處於長期地位個股的走勢分析判斷,對於小盤股 活躍股與高位股則沒有KDJ反應靈敏。
MACD的基本研判技巧法則有:
原則1:若DIF>0,DEA>0,此時的走勢屬於多頭背景;若DIF<0,DEA<0,此時的走勢屬於空頭背景,在實戰操作思維上,主倉位應該與市場背景保持一致。
原則2:DIF與DEA形成黃金交叉,即BAR由負變正時為買進信號;當DIF與DEA由負變正時,也是買進信號。如果此時標的物趨勢向上,可靠性較強。
原則3:DIF與DEA形成反動交叉,即BAR由正變負時為賣出信號;當DIF與DEA由正變負時,也是賣出信號。如果此時標的物趨勢向下,可靠性較強。
原則4:當股票價格已經出現一段上漲後,再度創出新高時,此時DIF與DEA沒有出現新高點,要防止股價見頂。
原則5:當股票價格已經出現一段下跌後,再度創出新低時,此時DIF與DEA沒有出現新低點,要注意股價見底。
原則6:高價位時,兩次反動交叉要防止大跌;低價位時,兩次黃金交叉要注意止跌;此時的成交量或者反向的消息面對股價影響特別大。
原則7:當BAR>0時,若BAR線變平緩時是短線賣出信號;當BAR<0時,若BAR線變平緩時是短線吸納信號。
原則8:當大盤處於牛皮盤整時,股價上下波動不大,MACD指標準確率較高;同時用MACD指導操作還應該多考慮與成交量 KDJ的組合。
原則9:無論你在實戰中採用何種操作方法MACD都是短線買賣時必須參考的指標。
二、隨機指標KDJ
隨機指標KDJ最先使用於期貨,后來被引用到股市進行短線套利操作,隨機指標綜合了動量觀念,強弱指標與移動平均線的優點,具有較強的實用性,並成為職業機構進行小盤股套利與主力對控盤股進行攤低籌碼操作的重要指標。
隨機指標一般通過一個特定周期(通常為9天)內出現過的最高價,最低價及最後一天的收盤價這三個數字來計算最後一天的未成熟隨機值。隨機指標的隨機觀念遠比平均移動線實用,對於掌握中短期的行情走勢非常準確。
KDJ的基本燕盤技巧:
1、當K值大於D值,表示目前是上漲的趨勢,因此在圖形上K線向上突破D線時,即為買進信號;當K值小於D值,表示目前是下降的趨勢,因此在圖形上K線向下突破D線時,即為賣出信號。
2、當D值跌至10-15時是良好的短線買進時機,若高至85-90時屬於賣出信號。
3、當K值大於80時,為強烈賣出信號,K值小於20時,為強烈的買進信號;當周K線小於20時為少見的買進信號,當周K線大於80時為力斷賣出信號。
4、K線與D線在高檔二次交叉則行情將大跌,在低檔二次交叉則行情將打仗。
5、KDJ不適合大盤弱時使用,不是和流通盤子小的個股使用,不適合冷門股使用;比較適合大盤強時使用,比較適合主力控盤時使用個股使用,比較適合熱門個股使用。
三、MACD與KDJ的結合
一般情況下,職業機構把MACD與KDJ的結合加權同時考慮成交量來進行強市短線套利和選擇中線個股的買賣點。這個方法是職業機構使用頻率最多,準確率較高的方法,是套利投資者必須熟練使用的方法。
60分鐘線的波段操作戰術
60分鐘,30分鐘,15分鐘形態作為介入點,不做常態分析的依據。但如果投資者進行短線甚至超短線交易時,就不得不關注60分鐘,30分鐘,15分鐘的技術形態了,其中尤以60分鐘圖表兼具穩定性及迅捷性於一身,是承前啟後的短線技術圖表,以下是運用60分鐘圖表操作短線的一些經驗,希望對股民朋友有所幫助。
1、價從階段高位向下,經一輪完整的子浪調整,MACD出現底背離,K組合出現標誌性K線。此時應觀察EXPMA指標狀態,通常將該指標快速線時間參數設定為12,慢速線時間參數設定為50。該指標屬趨向類指標,從指標上直觀可看出股價、快速線和慢速線之間的相互運動關係,其使用方法與均線系統的使用方法類似,該指標在多頭市場中成功率較高,可達85%以上,而在空頭市場中應用此指標須注意防止多頭陷阱,因其反應速度較慢,成功率約為65%。該指標用於中短線選股選時介入,具較高的參考價值。在60分鐘圖表中將修正KDJ指標的頻繁波動,當股價從10小時線下向上時,在10小時線價位主動發起第一波攻擊。股價上穿10小時線之后(l浪完成),此時KDJ將金叉但並非較佳的接入點,主力會展開短暫的回調震倉,只要股價不再下破10小時線,EXPMA指標多頭向上,盤中就是加倉機會,即使主力凶悍的震倉會向下擊穿10小時線,但MACD仍然向上或回調不死叉(2浪),只要股價迅速向上再次帶量突破10小時線時,應集中全部資金發起總攻圍剿莊家,展開滿倉作戰。
2、股價上穿l0線後,昇勢會快速展開,10小時線向上的角度越陡,股價上漲的力度越強,MACD的紅柱出現高位峰(3浪),倉位較大獲利豐厚的資金,可在MACD的紅柱縮短,並伴隨KDJ出現高位死叉時,部份離場進行戰術撤退,不參與調整。
3、股價在10小時線上方不遠處向下靠近10小時線,此時不管是平台整理,還是單邊下跌,只要MACD沒有出現頂背離(4浪,注意2浪和4浪的時間,形態的互換),就要在10小時線上檔價位,用前期離場資金迎頭圍殲.最後的昇勢會在出現急速放量(莊家對敲吸引跟風盤)的上標誌性K線,或長上影線,或長陰線,股價上漲而MACD的峰位比前峰低(頂背離)時結束,EXPMA指標出現死叉,從而完成5浪。此時此刻,如果K線組合出現第二根K線的最高價,低於前一根K線的最高價,MACD的紅柱第一次縮短,立刻在第一時間內向買三或更低價派單,清倉離場,撤出戰鬥。切記!千萬不要掛單在賣盤等,否則,利潤會迅速下降。
4、股價在高位第一次向下跌破10小時線時,絕對不能買入該股票,否則,套你到地老天荒。下跌是緩慢的,時間是冗長的,如果你買了或持有它,此刻的心情就是---才下眉頭卻上心頭。
5、休整之後再去開闢新的戰場,市場每天都有機會,只要你不抱僥幸心理,憑實戰技術的功底,就能準確把握每一次機會,十分耕耘=十分收獲.股市是我們資本積累的主戰場,那裡有你賺不完的錢。
POURIA交易法
方法使用工具
1移動平均線;
2MACD
參數設置
平均線
1 :5期指數移動平均線(黃色)
2 :75期加權移動平均線(紅色)
3 :85期加權移動平均線(紅色)
MACD
快速 EMA:15
慢速 EMA: 26
MACD SMA: 1
做空:當黃色線向下穿越2條紅色線並且MACD向下;
做多:當黃線向上穿越2條紅色線並且MACD向上
6、6O分鐘圖上各浪的運行態勢,l5分鐘時間結構都會作完美的論述,MACD指標、EXPMA指標KDJ指標配合會告訴你何時進出。如果被浪打暈了,只能說明你的功夫不到家。
賺錢方法交流
1、短線操做只能看分時圖;
2、用最低價做平均線;
3、MACD的參數得改。
做短線千萬不能看日線,得看分時線。
一天中,以什麼價位買入是最理想的?為什麼不看最低價的5日、10日平均線買入呢?
你看不看用最低價做的平均價呢?還有別的指標為什麼多用收盤價?這就是指標分析的最大誤區。你說莊家是在最低價部位吃,還是在最高價部位吃,還是在收盤價部位吃?很明顯,在最低價部位吃。那為什麼我們不分析莊家吃籌碼的成本呢?為什麼要用收盤價去做指標呢?
◆MACD,CCI,BOLL三個指標,任何參數都不改,由三個指標根據不同行情做出不同的買點。
◆MACD、BOLL、CCI這三個指標非常關鍵,在任何軟體都可操作,只看這三個指標足夠了,並且所有參數都要改,而且要改成大數字的,具體多少是個祕密,點到為止,自己去體會。
◆用六個指標,其中一個主圖判股票強弱的,三個判底的,兩個判頂的。這些指標都是組合起來看的,成功率很高,但唯一的缺點是不能做成選股指標,只能一只一只股票的去翻看。
◆買人民群眾都不要的股票。
◆分時系統的30分鐘30MA,在線上只做多;線下只做空。嚴設停損點。若乖離過大,5分鐘圖30MA跌破就出,到180MA就買回。KD設9,9;MACD設90,25,9,做為持股參考。遇盤整,5分鐘圖30MA做為進出依據。
◆1、K線形態;2、成交量;3、KDJ。
◆要測試參數,可以用最佳參數探索試試。
◆敢做的人多是高手,但需要分析清楚當前大盤的性質! 不要太注意大盤,請記住,熊市照樣有牛股!
◆根據時價共振來買賣股票。時間和價位同時到達支撐或者阻力位,就叫做時價共振。時間有支撐位和阻力位嗎?上漲過程中時間到了,價格也到了,就是阻力,下跌反之。
◆一天中的最低的價位買進是最合適的,沒有第二個選擇。
◆應該是莊家是在均價以下吃。
◆如果只用最低價就會更具欺騙性,還是收盤價比較客觀。
◆要看,連周線也要看,但是重點在15分鐘線、5分鐘線和30分鐘線。
◆除非實行T+0制,否則有時可能吃虧不討好,兩面挨耳光。
◆我主要看15分鐘線和MACD指標。
◆除了看日線和分時線以外,什麼都不看,日線有時比分時更加重要。
◆本人賣看30分鐘、60分鐘;買看周、日、30分鐘、60分鐘周期線。
◆5--10--15--30--60。
◆我認為靈感重要!
◆周線選股,日線作趨勢判斷,分時線決定介入時機。
◆不同的市道環境有不同的操作方法。優良的技術買賣能力,良好的心態,鐵的紀律(包括資金管理)。智者順勢而動,愚者逆理而謀。
◆5--15--30--60--120。
◆我也不看日線,看日線是要獲利了結,在現在的市場就得這樣做,有4%~5%就很好。