BY ARYN BAKER
APRIL 29, 2022 2:05 PM EDT
The azure sky and golden fields of wheat depicted in Ukraine’s yellow-and-blue-banded flag represent one of the world’s most important bread baskets.
烏克蘭黃、藍相間的國旗，描繪的蔚藍天空及金黃色麥田，代表了世界上最重要的麵包籃子之一。
Before the Russian invasion, the country was responsible for 12% of global wheat exports, 16% of global corn exports, and 46% of global sunflower oil production. But that flag, now a symbol of defiance, also represents a cautionary tale about the world’s overreliance on singular sources of vital foods, particularly when it comes to international humanitarian food aid.
在俄羅斯入侵之前，該國占全球小麥出口的12%、全球玉米出口的16%及全球葵花籽油產量的46%。不過，目前那面旗幟是挑戰的一個象徵，也代表了一個，有關世界過度依賴重要糧食之單一來源的警示故事，特別是在國際人道主義的糧食援助方面。
The two-month-long conflict has derailed Ukraine’s ability to plant, harvest, and export its major crops, driving higher costs and stoking fears of global food shortages.
長達兩個多月的衝突，已經使得烏克蘭種植、收穫及出口其主要作物的能力出軌。這驅動了較高的成本，且引發對全球糧食短缺的擔憂。
As the World Food Program’s executive director, David Beasley, warned the United Nations Security Council on March 29: rising food prices would devastate the humanitarian organization’s ability to feed some 125 million people on the brink of starvation because Ukraine had gone “from the breadbasket of the world to breadlines.”
如同於2022年3月29日，世界糧食計劃署執行長，David Beasley警告聯合國安理會：糧食價格上漲會破壞，人道主義之組織養活處於飢餓邊緣，大約1.25億人的能力。因為，烏克蘭已經“從世界之麵包籃子，走進了排隊領取免費救濟糧食的隊伍”。
The ripple effect of the Ukraine crisis on global grocery bills, however, is just a taste of what is to come as climate change disrupts the world’s agricultural areas. As temperatures rise due to increasing greenhouse-gas emissions, so too will the price of food.
然而，烏克蘭危機對全球食品雜貨賬單的波動反應，只是對氣候變遷擾亂世界農業地區，即將發生之事的一種體驗。由於溫室氣體排放量增加，隨著氣溫上升，因此糧食價格也會上漲。
Humanitarian aid is likely to suffer first, with donors’ funds losing their purchasing power when prices of basic commodities like wheat and oil increase.
人道主義的援助可能首先遭受影響，因為當諸如小麥及石油等，基本商品價格上漲時，捐助者的資金會喪失購買力。
“The full impact of climate change will make the Ukraine crisis’s impact on food prices look like kindergarten,” says Enock Chikava, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s interim director for agricultural development. “We are already living in a one-degree warmer world, and we are already seeing more pests, more droughts, more heat. If we continue on this trajectory, to 1.5°C or even 2°C, all hell will break loose.”
比爾暨梅琳達·蓋茲基金會，農業發展的臨時總監，Enock Chikava宣稱：「氣候變遷的全面影響，會使烏克蘭危機對糧食價格的影響，看起來像幼稚園。我們已經生活於一個更暖和1度的世界中，我們已經看到更多的害蟲、更多的乾旱及更熱。倘若我們持續於此軌跡上，達到1.5°C甚至2°C，一切皆會大亂起來。」
But simple solutions, in the form of localized farming adaptations, experts say, can play a role in heading off the worst of the impact of looming global food shortages—if they are implemented ahead of time.
不過，專家們表示，以局部化農業適應形式的簡單解決方案，倘若提前被實施，則在阻止迫在眉睫之全球糧食短缺的最嚴重影響上，能扮演一種角色。
The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) recently estimated that the Ukraine crisis would push up to 12 million people into hunger worldwide. This is in part because, as the FAO estimates, one third of Ukraine’s crops and agricultural land may not be harvested or cultivated this year, leading to a loss of one fifth of the country’s wheat supply.
聯合國糧食暨農業組織(FAO)最近估計，烏克蘭危機會迫使全球多達 1200萬人陷入飢餓。部分原因是，如同FAO估計，今年烏克蘭三分之一的農作物及農業用地，可能無法收割或耕作，而導致該國的小麥供應減少五分之一。
Future harvests are also in jeopardy because next season’s crop is unlikely to be planted amidst wartime conditions. At the same time, economic sanctions on Russia, the world’s largest producer of wheat, have further reduced global supplies.
未來的收成也處於危險之中，因為在戰時條件之中，不太可能種植下一季的作物。在此同時，對世界最大小麥生產國俄羅斯的經濟制裁，已經進一步減少了全球供應。
Meanwhile, Russia and its ally Belarus are leading producers of the fertilizers that farmers use around the world. Sanctions and conflict-linked shipping restrictions have limited their availability on global markets, and the resulting higher prices will force farmers to make difficult decisions: reduce their use, and risk lower yields, or pay more and charge more—if they can—for their crops.
其時，俄羅斯及其盟友白俄羅斯，是世界各地農民使用之化肥的主要生產國。制裁及與衝突相關的運輸限制，已經限制了它們在全球市場上的可資獲得性，及從而產生的更高價格，將迫使農民做出艱難決定：減少使用，及冒較低產量之險，或倘若可以，為其作物支付更多費用及收取更多費用。
Either way, essentials will likely get more expensive. Some governments may be able to subsidize fertilizers or wheat, or both, to carry their populations through, but others may not be able to, risking starvation.
無論哪種方式，必需品可能會變得更昂貴。一些政府或許能補貼化肥或小麥，或兩者，來使其全體人民渡過難關。不過，其他政府可能無法辦到，而冒飢餓之險。
The impact on the cost of food has been swift. At the end of March, the FAO’s monthly tracking of the price of a basic basket of goods surged to its highest level—a 60% increase over last March’s basket—since the FAO Food Price Index was first published in 1990.
對糧食成本的影響一直是迅速的。在2022年3月底，FAO基本籃子貨價格的每月跟蹤飆升至，打從於1990年FAO糧食價格指數，首度公布以來的最高水平(比去年三月的籃貨價格增加60%)。
Food prices could rise by another 20% in parts of the world that depend on Ukrainian and Russian exports, according to the UN. This in turn translates into higher prices for international food aid, creating an unbearable toll for fragile populations already teetering on the edge of hunger.
根據聯合國的說法，在世界依賴烏克蘭及俄羅斯出口的地區，糧食價格可能另上漲達20%。對國際糧食援助而言，這依序轉化成更高的價格，而對已經處於飢餓邊緣之搖搖欲墜的脆弱人口，造成難以承受的損害。
Add to this the impacts of rising global temperatures and the effects could be devastating for economically disadvantaged countries.
除此之外，全球溫度上升的影響，及其對經濟上處於不利條件之國家的影響，可能是毀滅性的。
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s landmark report released in February, rising temperatures are likely to increase drought, flooding, and fire in once-reliable agricultural areas like California and southern Europe, which all could send production numbers tumbling.
根據政府間氣候變遷專門委員會，於2022年2月發布的里程碑報告，溫度上升可能使，在諸如美國加州及南歐等，曾經是可靠之農業地區增多，皆可能使生產數量暴跌的乾旱、洪水及火災。
In some places, it is already happening. A record-setting heatwave in India has reduced this year’s wheat crop, just as the country was planning an export surge to make up for the Russian and Ukrainian shortfalls.
在某些地方，這已經發生中。就在印度計劃增加出口，以彌補俄羅斯及烏克蘭的短缺時。印度創記錄的熱浪，已經減少今年的小麥收獲量。
And, as the Associated Press reports, China’s agriculture minister Tang Renjian warned last month that the country’s winter wheat harvest will be poor after wheat growing regions were hit by major flooding.
此外，如同美聯社的報導，中國農業部長Tang Renjian上個月警告，在小麥種植區遭受大洪水襲擊後，該國的冬小麥收成會是不佳的。
Beyond the agricultural impacts of a warming world, catastrophic weather events in key ports ranging from Baltimore to the Black Sea could suddenly stop exports. Food prices will rise, and with them the chance of internal unrest, like what we are already seeing in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
除了暖化之世界的農業影響外，在從美國馬里蘭州巴爾的摩港市到黑海等，主要港口的災難性天氣事件，可能突然停止出口。糧食價格會上漲，隨之而來的是內部動蕩的可能性，就像我們在斯里蘭卡及巴基斯坦已經看到的那樣。
Chronically food-insecure regions, such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, will be hit by the double whammy of drought and high prices, reducing both governmental and international aid agencies’ abilities to provide for a famished populace.
諸如非洲之角(Horn of Africa，又稱索馬里半島，是東非的一個大半島)及薩赫勒(Sahel，非洲北部撒哈拉沙漠與南部蘇丹稀樹草原之間的生物地理過渡區域)等，長期糧食不安全的地區，會受到乾旱及高價格的雙重打擊，而降低政府及國際援助機構，為飢餓民眾提供食物的能力。
For years, countries already dealing with the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems have sought to minimize these risks by sourcing vital supplies abroad.
多年來，已經在處理氣候變遷，對農業體系之影響的諸多國家一直藉由，在國外尋求重要的供應，來使此些風險減至最小。
Drought-prone Somalia, for example, imports 90% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, according to Rein Paulsen, FAO’s director for the Office of Emergencies and Resilience.
譬如，根據FAO緊急情況暨復原力辦公室主任，Rein Paulsen的說法，易乾旱的索馬里亞，90%的小麥從烏克蘭及俄羅斯進口。
That strategy is no longer viable— not just because of conflict, but because of how climate change is likely to upend longstanding food supply networks, he says. “One of the things that we’re learning out of the tragedy surrounding the war in Ukraine is just how interconnected and fragile some of our agri-food systems are.”
他表示，那種策略不再可行。不只因為衝突，還因為氣候變遷如何可能顛覆長期存在的糧食供應網絡。「我們從圍繞烏克蘭戰爭之悲劇中，認清的一件事，就是我們的一些農業-糧食體系，是多麼相互關聯及脆弱。」
The Ukraine-related price spikes are just the most recent evidence that the global agricultural system is broken, says Chikava of the Gates Foundation.
蓋茲基金會的Chikava表示，與烏克蘭有關的價格飆升，只是全球農業體系遭破壞的最近證據。
“Before Ukraine, global agriculture was already dealing with increasingly rapid and severe climate change, widespread conflict and mass migration, a locust infestation across the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, and a pandemic.” The result, he notes, was some of the highest food prices in recorded history—until the Ukraine conflict drove them even higher.
「在烏克蘭之前，全球農業已經在處理，日益迅速且嚴重的氣候變遷、廣泛的衝突與大規模移民、中東與撒哈拉以南非洲的蝗災及大流行病。」他特別提及，結果是在記錄史中，一些最高的糧食價格。直到，於烏克蘭的衝突，將它們推得更高。
But if local agricultural practices are strengthened, “the world’s food system will be more resilient—not only if there is another crisis in the Black Sea region but in the face of a seemingly endless string of punishing externalities.” Strengthening that system means rethinking humanitarian aid from the ground up.
不過，倘若當地的農業實務得到加強，“世界糧食體系會是更具適應力。不只倘若在黑海地區有另一次危機，而且在面對一連串看似無窮無盡之造成嚴重損害的外部事物。」加強那體系意味著，從頭開始重新考慮人道主義的援助。
Food imports will always play a role in hunger response, but they should not be the default, says Paulsen of the FAO. In a climate unstable world, countries will need to start developing resilience at a local level by embracing forward-thinking agricultural practices. In some places that could mean sowing locally adapted crop varieties, resistant to drought or flood.
FAO的Paulsen表示，在對飢餓的反應中，糧食進口始終會扮演一種角色，不過它們不應該是種缺點。在氣候不穩定的世界中，諸多國家將需要藉由，採納具前瞻性的農業實務，來在地方層級開始發展適應力。在某些地方，那可能意味著，播種抗旱或抗洪之適合當地的作物品種。
Other areas might require precision irrigation systems that minimize water use, or education on the strategic application of fertilizers and pesticides (rather than ad hoc use that could cause long-term harm, or unnecessary costs). Meanwhile agricultural scientists will need to focus attention on developing new crops and livestock breeds that can tolerate more heat, or which are more pest resistant.
其他地區可能需要，使用水量減至最少的精確灌溉系統，或針對肥料及殺蟲劑之策略性應用的教育(而不是可能造成長期傷害或不必要成本之應當前所需的使用)。在此同時，農業科學家們會需要，將注意力著重於開發，能耐受更多熱量或抗蟲害能力更強的新作物及牲畜品種上。
These kinds of interventions aren’t cheap, but neither is emergency aid. As an example, Paulsen estimates that it would cost $157 a year to help one Afghan family pivot to more climate change-resilient seeds and farming methods.
此些干預並不廉價，不過緊急援助也不便宜。譬如，Paulsen估計，協助一個阿富汗家庭，轉向對氣候變遷更具適應力的種子及耕作方法，每年將會花費157美元。
Were that family to buy their staple foods at a market—assuming they had enough cash and the supplies were available—it would cost four times as much. And in the case of a massive international response to a looming famine, as we are seeing now, it would cost seven to nine times as much.
倘若那家庭在市場上購買其主食。假設他們有足夠的現金及可資獲得的糧食，這將花費四倍。因此，在國際對迫在眉睫之饑荒作出大規模反應的情況下，如同我們現在所看到的那樣，這將花費七到九倍的費用。
Food aid at scale is incredibly important, says Paulsen, particularly in lean seasons or for catastrophic events like hurricanes or conflict. “But it’s remarkable how even under challenging circumstances agriculture is still possible at the household level,” he says. “So a focus on local production needs to be part of the answer moving forward.”
Paulsen表示，大規模的糧食援助非常重要。特別是，在歉收的季節，及諸如颶風或衝突等，災難性事件時。他宣稱：「不過，值得注意的是，即使在諸多挑戰下，以家庭層級的農業仍是可能的。因此，著重於地方的生產需求，會是朝未來之解決方法的一部分。」
網址：https://time.com/6172270/ukraine-food-price-crisis-climate-change/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sfmc&utm_campaign=newsletter+brief+default+ac&utm_content=+++20220503+++body&et_rid=207513678&lctg=207513678
翻譯：許東榮
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