By Stephanie Nolen
Dec. 19, 2021Updated 6:15 p.m. ET
They do seem to offer significant protection against severe illness, but the consequences of rapidly spreading infection worry many public health experts.
它們似乎確實對嚴重疾病提供重要保護。不過，感染迅速散播的後果，令諸多公共衛生專家們感到憂心。
A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant.
越來越多初步研究暗示，被使用於世界大部分地區的冠狀病毒症(Covid：Coronavirus Disease)疫苗，幾乎無法提供對抗，遭高度傳染性之Omicron變異體感染的防禦力。
All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world.
所有疫苗似乎仍然，對源自Omicron之嚴重疾病，提供顯著程度的保護。這是至關重要的目標。不過，唯獨輝瑞及莫德納注射劑(疫苗)，於經由加強劑增強後，在阻止感染方面，顯然取得初步成功。不過，在世界大部分地區，這些疫苗是無法獲得的。
The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.
初期研究顯示，其他注射劑(包括那些來自阿斯利康、強生及中國與俄羅斯生產的疫苗)幾乎無法阻止Omicron的散播。而且，由於大多數國家已經圍繞此些疫苗，建立其接種計劃。因此，對此大流行病的進程，這種差距可能具有深遠影響。
A global surge of infections in a world where billions of people remain unvaccinated not only threatens the health of vulnerable individuals but also increases the opportunity for the emergence of yet more variants.
在數十億人仍未接種疫苗的世界中，全球感染激增不僅威脅脆弱個體的健康，而且增加了出現更多變異體的機會。
The disparity in the ability of countries to weather the pandemic will almost certainly deepen. And the news about limited vaccine efficacy against Omicron infection could depress demand for vaccination throughout the developing world, where many people are already hesitant or preoccupied with other health problems.
在各國承受此大流行病的能力差異上，幾乎無疑地會加深。因此，有關Omicron感染，有限之疫苗效力的消息可能削弱，許多人已經猶豫不決，或一心著重於其他健康問題之遍及發展中的地區，對疫苗接種的需求。
Most evidence so far is based on laboratory experiments, which do not capture the full range of the body’s immune response, and not from tracking the effect on real-world populations. The results are striking, however.
迄今為止，大多數證據是以實驗室，沒有獲得完整人體免疫反應，也沒有來自追蹤，對現實世界人群之影響的實驗為基礎。不過，此些結果是驚人的。
The Pfizer and Moderna shots use the new mRNA technology, which has consistently offered the best protection against infection with every variant. All of the other vaccines are based on older methods of triggering an immune response.
輝瑞及莫德納注射劑使用，一直為每種變異體提供，免於感染之最佳保護的新 mRNA技術。所有其他疫苗是以，觸發免疫反應的較舊方法為基礎。
The Chinese vaccines Sinopharm and Sinovac — which make up almost half of all shots delivered globally — offer almost zero protection from Omicron infection. The great majority of people in China have received these shots, which are also widely used in low-and middle-income countries such as Mexico and Brazil.
中國幾乎構成全球交付之所有注射劑半數的國藥及科興疫苗，對Omicron感染提供的保護幾近零。於中國，絕大多數人已經施打此些，也廣泛被使用於，諸如墨西哥、巴西等，低、中收入的國家。
A preliminary effectiveness study in Britain found that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination. Ninety percent of vaccinated people in India received this shot, under the brand name Covishield.it has also been widely used across much of sub-Saharan Africa, where Covax, the global Covid vaccine program, has distributed 67 million doses of it to 44 countries.
在英國，一項初步有效性研究發現，在接種疫苗六個月後，牛津的阿斯利康疫苗顯示，無阻擋Omicron感染的能力。在印度，接種疫苗的人90%是施打，這種商標名稱Covishield的注射劑。
it has also been widely used across much of sub-Saharan Africa, where Covax, the global Covid vaccine program, has distributed 67 million doses of it to 44 countries.
它也被廣泛使用於撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲地區。在此，Covax(全球Covid疫苗計劃)已經將此種疫苗的6千7百萬劑，分配到44個國家。
Researchers predict that Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, which is also being used in Africa and Latin America, will show similarly dismal rates of protection against Omicron.
研究人員們預言，俄羅斯也正被使用於非洲及拉丁美洲的Sputnik(蘇聯發射的人造衛星名稱)疫苗，同樣會顯示令人沮喪之免於Omicron感染的保護率。
Demand for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had been surging in Africa, because its single-shot delivery regimen makes it easy to deliver in low-resource settings. But it too has shown a negligible ability to block Omicron infection.
於非洲，對強生&強生疫苗的需求一直激增中。因為，其單次注射接種方案，使其容易在資源匱乏的環境中，接種。不過，也已經顯示出，其阻礙Omicron感染的微不足道能力。
Antibodies are the first line of defense induced by vaccines. But the shots also stimulate the growth of T cells, and preliminary studies suggest that these T cells still recognize the Omicron variant, which is important in preventing severe disease.
抗體是疫苗誘發的第一道防線。不過，此些注射劑也刺激T細胞的生長，且初步的諸多研究顯示，這些T細胞仍然識別Omicron變異體。在預防嚴重疾病上，這是重要的。
“What you lose first is protection against asymptomatic mild infection, what you retain much better is protection against severe disease and death,” said John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. He called it “a silver lining” that Omicron so far appears less lethal than the Delta variant.
威爾康奈爾醫學院(位於紐約市)的病毒學家，John Moore宣稱：「首先失去的是，對無症狀之輕度感染的保護，保留較好的是，對嚴重疾病及死亡的保護。」他認為強生&強生是，到目前為止，Omicron似乎比Delta變異體較少致命的“一項光明面”。
But this protection will not be enough to prevent Omicron from causing global disruption, said J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Global Health Policy Center at the Center for International and Strategic Studies.
不過，美國戰略暨國際研究中心(總部位於華盛頓特區的智庫)的全球衛生政策中心主任，J. Stephen Morrison表示，這種保護不足以防止Omicron造成全球瓦解。
“The sheer scale of infection will overwhelm health systems, simply because the denominator will be potentially so big,” he said. “If you have a burst of infection worldwide, a shock, what does the world look like on the other side of it? Is it, ‘The war is over,’ or, ‘The war has just entered another phase’? We haven’t begun thinking about any of that.”
他宣稱：「龐大的感染規模會壓垮衛生體系，只因為分母潛在上會是很大。倘若突然發生令人震驚的世界性感染，在其另一面，世界看來會像什麼？這是‘戰爭結束’，或是‘戰爭剛進入另一階段’？我們沒有開始思考這些。」
People with breakthrough cases may experience only asymptomatic infection or mild illness, but they can pass the virus to unvaccinated people, who could fall more severely ill, and become a source of new variants.
有突破性病例的人可能僅經歷，無症狀的感染或輕度疾病。不過，他們會將病毒傳播給未接種疫苗的人。這些人可能陷入更嚴重疾病，且成為新變異體來源。
Dr. Seth Berkley, the chief executive of Gavi, the global vaccine alliance, said that more data was needed before drawing conclusions about vaccines’ effectiveness against Omicron — and that accelerated vaccination should continue to be the focus of pandemic response.
全球疫苗聯盟Gavi的首席執行長，Seth Berkley博士表示，在得出有關疫苗對 Omicron有效性的結論之前，需要更多數據。而且加速的疫苗接種，應持續是大流行病反應的重點。
Preliminary data from South Africa suggest that with Omicron, there is a much higher chance of people who already had Covid getting reinfected than there was with the original virus and previous variants. But some public health experts say they believe that countries that have already been through brutal waves of Covid, such as Brazil and India, may have a buffer against Omicron, and vaccination after infection produces high antibody levels.
來自南非的初步數據顯示，Omicron的情況，相較於原始病毒及先前諸多變異體有的情況，是已經感染過Covid的人，有較高再次感染的可能性。不過，一些公共衛生專家表示，他們認為，諸如巴西及印度等，已經歷過嚴峻Covid浪潮的國家，可能對Omicron有一種緩衝作用。因此，感染後接種疫苗產生高的抗體水平。
“The combination of vaccination and exposure to the virus seems to be stronger than only having the vaccine,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, an epidemiologist. India, he noted, has an adult vaccination rate of only about 40 percent but 90 percent exposure to the virus in some areas.
流行病學家Ramanan Laxminarayan宣稱：「接種疫苗及曝露於病毒的組合，似乎比只接種疫苗更強有力。」他特別提及，印度成人疫苗接種率僅約40%。不過，在某些地區有90%曝露於該種病毒。
“Without a doubt Omicron is going to flood through India,” he said. “But hopefully India is protected to some extent because of vaccination and exposure.”
他宣稱：「毫無疑問，Omicron將席捲印度。不過，由於疫苗接種及曝露，但願印度能受保護達某種程度。」
China does not have this layer of protection to back up its weak vaccines. Because of China’s aggressive efforts to stop spread of the virus within its borders, relatively few people have previous exposure. Only an estimated 7 percent of people in Wuhan, where the pandemic began, were infected.
中國沒有這層保護，來支援其弱勢的疫苗。由於中國積極嘗試阻止該種病毒，在其境內傳播。因此，相對上較少的人，先前曾曝露過。在此大流行病開始的武漢，估計僅7%的人遭感染。
Much of Latin America has relied on the Chinese and Russian vaccines, and on AstraZeneca. Mario Rosemblatt, a professor of immunology at the University of Chile, said that more than 90 percent of Chileans had had two doses of one vaccine, but the great majority of these were Coronavac, the Sinovac shot.
拉丁美洲大部分地區，一直依賴中國與俄羅斯的疫苗，及阿斯利康(AZ)。智利大學的免疫學教授，Mario Rosemblatt表示，多於90%智利人已經接種兩劑一種疫苗。不過，其中絕大多數是中國科興注射劑─Coronavac。
High vaccination coverage combined with early reports that Omicron does not cause serious illness is leading to a false sense of security in the country, he said.
他表示，於該國，高的疫苗接種覆蓋率，加上早期有關Omicron不會引發嚴重疾病的報導，正導致一種錯誤的安全感。
“We have to get people to understand that it doesn’t work like that: If you get high transmissibility you’re going to have the health system saturated because the number of people getting ill will be higher,” he said.
他宣稱：「我們必須讓人們瞭解，它並非如上述般起作用：如果具有高的傳染率，衛生體系將會飽和。因為，染病的人數會更多。」
Brazil has recommended that all vaccinated people get a third dose, and it started using Pfizer’s vaccine for all boosters, but only 40 percent of the vaccinated have turned up to get the extra shot.
巴西已經建議所有接種過疫苗的人，接種第三劑。且開始使用輝瑞疫苗，供作所有加強劑。不過，僅40%接種過的人，已經捲起袖子接種了額外疫苗。
Dr. Amilcar Tanuri, a virologist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said with cautious optimism that the high levels of previous Covid exposure might blunt Omicron’s impact but noted that the most vulnerable Brazilians, vaccinated first, got Coronavac, and tens of millions more were given AstraZeneca.
巴西里約熱內盧聯邦大學病毒學家，Amilcar Tanuri博士審慎樂觀地表示，之前高水平的Covid曝露，可能削弱Omicron的影響。不過，特別提及，最早接種疫苗之最易受影響的巴西人，接種的是Coronavac，而數千多萬人被施予阿斯利康。
Mr. Morrison called Omicron’s ability to evade the protection of vaccination “a massive setback” for low- and middle-income countries, where, far from any discussion of boosters, the focus is still on delivering first shots.
Morrison先生認為，對尚無任何討論增強劑，重點仍然是施予第一劑之低、中收入的國家而言，Omicron避開疫苗接種的保護能力，是“一項巨大的挫折”。
“The world gets cleaved into two parts, right?” he said. “It’s those that have a quick path toward boosters versus those who have had very limited progress and suddenly they’re subject to this new lashing.” Just 13 percent of people in Africa have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine.
他宣稱：「世界被分成兩部分，適當？這是具有快速邁向增強劑之途徑，相對於具有進展非常有限，且突然遭受到這種新衝擊的兩部分。」在非洲，僅13%的人至少已經接受一劑Covid疫苗。
Dr. Laxminarayan said the Indian government, to which he is an occasional adviser, was considering booster shots, but the Delta variant still poses a significant threat in India, and two vaccine doses offers protection against Delta.
Laxminarayan博士表示，他偶爾充當顧問的印度政府，正在考慮加強注射。在印度，Delta變異體仍然構成重大威脅，而兩劑疫苗提供了對抗Delta的保護。
That presents the government with a difficult choice between focusing on getting people who remain unvaccinated, or only partly vaccinated, to two doses, or trying to get boosters to older people and those with high-risk medical conditions as protection against Omicron.
那給政府帶來了一項，在著重讓未接種或僅部分接種疫苗者接種兩劑，或嘗試為老年及那些具有高危醫療狀況者接種加強劑，作為對抗Omicron之保護間的艱難選擇。
The news that the non-mRNA vaccines offer little protection against infection from Omicron may further erode demand for shots in countries already struggling to build demand, Mr. Morrison said.
Morrison先生表示，這些非mRNA的疫苗提供鮮少，對抗來自Omicron感染之保護作用的新聞，可能在已經奮力擴大需求的國家中，進一步削弱對注射劑的需求。
“This challenges the whole value of vaccines,” he said. “If you’re so far behind and then you suffer this, it’s going to feed anti-vaccine sentiment and weaken confidence.”
他宣稱：「這挑戰了疫苗的整體價值。倘若遠遠落後，然後經歷上述情況，這將助長反疫苗的情緒及削弱信心。」
Tolbert Nyenswah, a senior researcher with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the emerging threat to countries in the global south that have relied on non-mRNA vaccines was an indictment of wealthy countries’ failure to share that technology or help build production points in low- and middle-income countries.
美國約翰霍普金斯大學，彭博公共衛生學院資深研究員，Tolbert Nyenswah表示，對在南半球中，已經依賴非mRNA疫苗之國家浮現中的威脅，是對富裕國家未能分享那技術，或在低、中等收之入國家中，協助建立生產點的一種告發。
As a consequence, dangerous variants will continue to emerge from areas with low vaccination coverage and will prolong the pandemic, predicted Dr. Nyenswah, who was deputy minister of health in Liberia through that country’s worst Ebola outbreak.
在賴比瑞亞經歷最惡劣的伊波拉爆發期間，擔任該國衛生部副部長的Nyenswah博士預言，結果，疫苗接種覆蓋率低的地區，會繼續出現危險的變異體，且會延長此大流行病。
Dr. Berkley at Gavi said it would be a serious mistake for countries to ease up on their vaccination push or to assume that only mRNA vaccines are worth distributing.
於Gavi(全球疫苗聯盟)的Berkley博士表，對放寬疫苗接種推動力，或認為僅mRNA疫苗值得分配的國家而言，這會是一項嚴重錯誤。
“We may be seeing a situation where countries say, ‘If developed countries don’t want these vaccines, then we don’t want these vaccines,’” he said. “That, of course, would be the wrong interpretation, if it turns out that these vaccines prevent against severe disease and death.”
他宣稱：「我們可能正看到一種，諸多國家表示的情況。‘倘若已開發國家不想要這些疫苗，那麼我們也不想要這些疫苗’。當然，倘若事實證明，這些疫苗能預防嚴重疾病及死亡，那會是錯誤的判讀。」
網址：https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/19/health/omicron-vaccines-efficacy.html
翻譯：許東榮
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