圖1. 本月，西班牙薩莫拉省的庫萊布拉山脈發生野火 (圖援用自原文)
Millions of Americans are once again in the grips of dangerous heat. Hot air blanketed Europe last weekend, causing parts of France and Spain to feel the way it usually does in July or August.
數百萬美國人再次陷入危險的高溫中。上週末熱空氣席捲歐洲，使法國及西班牙的部分地區，感受到通常於七八月份的情況。
High temperatures scorched northern and central China even as heavy rains caused flooding in the country’s south. Some places in India began experiencing extraordinary heat in March, though the start of the monsoon rains has brought some relief.
正當暴雨導致中國南部洪水泛濫，高溫卻焦乾了中國北部及中部。於印度一些地方，在3月開始經受異常高溫，雖然季風雨的開始，已經帶來一些緩解。
It’s too soon to say whether climate change is directly to blame for causing severe heat waves in these four powerhouse economies — which also happen to be the top emitters of heat-trapping gases — at roughly the same time, just days into summer.
現在說氣候變遷是否，是在這四個大約於同一時間，僅幾天就進入夏季之強國經濟體(這些經濟體碰恰也是陷捕熱之氣體的最大排放者)，造成嚴重熱浪的直接原因，為時尚早。
While global warming is making extreme heat more common worldwide, deeper analysis is required to tell scientists whether specific weather events were made more likely or more intense because of human-induced warming. (A team of researchers who studied this spring’s devastating heat in India found that climate change had made it 30 times as likely to occur.)
正當全球暖化使極端高溫，於世界各地變得更為普遍時，需要更深入的分析，來告知科學家們，特定的天氣事件是否，由於人為引發的暖化，變得更有可能或更強烈。(研究了今年春天，於印度毀滅性高溫的一支研究人員團隊發現，氣候變遷已經使其發生的可能性，增加30倍。)
Even so, concurrent heat waves seem to be hitting certain groups of far-flung places with growing frequency of late, for reasons related to the jet stream and other rivers of air that influence weather systems worldwide.
不過，由於諸多與影響全球天氣體系之空氣急流及其他巨流有關的原因，同時發生的熱浪似乎，最近正日益頻繁襲擊某些範圍廣大的地區群。
Studies have shown that parts of North America, Europe and Asia are linked this way. Scientists are still trying to determine how these patterns might change as the planet warms further, but for now it means simultaneous heat extremes will probably continue affecting these places where so much of the world’s economic activity is concentrated.
諸多研究已經顯示，北美、歐洲及亞洲部分地區，與此情況被聯繫在一起。 科學家們仍在試圖確定，隨著地球進一步暖化，此些模式會如何改變。不過就目前而言，這意味著，同時出現的極端高溫，可能會繼續影響，此些很多世界經濟活動集中的地方。
“To have a heat wave, we need the heat, and we need the atmospheric circulation pattern that allows the heat to accumulate,” said Daniel E. Horton, a climate scientist at Northwestern University. With global warming, he said, “we’re definitely getting more heat.” But climate change may also be affecting the way this heat is distributed around the world by globe-circling air currents, he said.
美國西北大學氣候科學家，Daniel E. Horton宣稱：「要產生熱浪，需要熱量且需要使熱量積聚的大氣循環模式。」他表示，隨著全球暖化。「當然獲得更多的熱量。」他表示，不過氣候變遷或許也影響，此熱量經由環繞地球的氣流，被分佈於世界各地的方式。
圖2. 周日，中國建浦水南大橋附近發生洪水。 (圖援用自原文)
圖3. 5月31日，在印度阿拉哈巴德的建築用水泥管道中尋找陰涼處。 (圖援用自原文)
Simultaneous weather extremes in numerous locations aren’t just meteorological curiosities. Individual heat waves can lead to illness and death, wildfires, and crop failures. Concurrent ones can threaten global food supplies, which have been under perilous strain this year because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
在許多地方同時出現的極端天氣，不只是氣象奇事。個別熱浪會導致疾病與死亡、野火及作物歉收。同時發生的熱浪也會威脅到，由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，今年一直處於危險狀態的全球糧食供應。
While heat waves are shaped by complex local factors such as urbanization and land use, scientists no longer have much doubt about whether climate change is making them worse.
儘管熱浪是由諸如，城市化及土地利用等，複雜的當地因素所塑造。不過，有關氣候變遷正使它們變得更糟，科學家們不再有很多疑惑。
Soon, the world’s most devastating heat waves may simply have no historical analogue from the time shortly before humans starting pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, some scientists argue, rendering obsolete the question of whether climate change is a main driver.
有些科學家認為，不久，世界上大多數具破壞性的熱浪，可能完全沒有，人類開始將溫室氣體排入大氣中之前，不久的歷史類似情況。這使得是否氣候變遷，是主要驅動力的問題變得過時。
The warming of recent decades has already made it hard for scientists to know what to call a heat wave and what to treat as simply a new normal for hot weather, said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University.
美國德州農業暨機械大學氣候科學家，Andrew Dessler表示，近幾十年的暖化已經使科學家們，很難知曉稱熱浪為什麼，及簡易地視熱天氣的新常態為什麼。
If the threshold for a heat wave is just the mercury exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit for days in a row, for instance, then it’s “not at all unexpected,” Dr. Dessler said, to see them occurring more regularly in several regions at once.
看到它們更頻繁地，在若干地區同時發生，Dessler博士表示，譬如，倘若熱浪的門檻值只是(溫度計)水銀柱，連續幾天超過華氏100度。那麼這“並非全然是意外”。
“As time goes on, more and more of the planet will be experiencing those temperatures, until eventually, with enough global warming, every land area in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere would be above 100 degrees,” he said.
他宣稱：「隨著時間推移，此行星(地球)愈多地方，會經歷那些溫度，直到最終，由於充分的全球暖化，於北半球中緯度地區的每一處陸地區域，會超過華氏100度。」
Yet even when scientists look at how often temperatures exceed a certain level relative to a moving average, they still find a big increase in the frequency of simultaneous heat waves.
然而，即使科學家們檢視相對於移動平均數之溫度，多常超過某個水平時，在同時的熱浪頻率上，他們仍然發現大增多。
One recent study that did this found that the average number of days between May and September with at least one large heat wave in the Northern Hemisphere doubled between the 1980s and the 2010s, to around 152 from 73.
最近一項發現上述情況的研究發現，在1980年代到2010年代的5月至9月之間，北半球至少有一次大熱浪的平均天數倍增，從73天增加到152天左右。
But the number of days with two or more heat waves was seven times higher, growing to roughly 143 from 20. That’s nearly every single day from May to September.
不過，具有兩次或更多熱浪的天數增多七倍，從20天增加到大約143 天。那幾乎是從5月到9月的每天發生。
The study also found that these concurrent heat waves affected larger areas and were more severe by the 2010s, with peak intensities that were almost one-fifth higher than in the 1980s. On days when there was at least one large heat wave somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, there were 3.6 of them happening per day on average, the study found.
該項研究也發現，此些同時發生的熱浪影響了更大的區域，且到2010年代更加嚴重，具有幾乎比1980年代高出五分之一的尖峰強度。該項研究發現，當在北半球某處，至少發生一次大熱浪的日子裡，平均其中有3.6天每天發生。
These “dramatic” increases came as a surprise, said Deepti Singh, a climate scientist at Washington State University and an author of the study.
該項研究撰文人，美國華盛頓州立大學氣候科學家，Deepti Singh表示，此些“引人注目”的增多令人驚訝。
圖4. 本月，美國德克薩斯州聖安東尼奧附近遭受旱災的麥地那湖。 (圖援用自原文)
Dr. Singh and her co-authors also looked at where concurrent heat waves occurred most frequently during those four decades. One pattern stood out: Large simultaneous heat waves struck parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central and eastern Asia increasingly often between 1979 and 2019 .
Singh博士及其合撰人也研究了，那四十年期間，同時發生熱浪最頻繁的地方。一種突出的模式：在1979年至2019年間，同時襲擊北美洲東部、歐洲以及中亞與東亞部分地區的大型熱浪日益頻繁。
“more than what we would expect simply by the effect of warming,” Dr. Singh said. The study did not try to predict whether heat waves along this pattern will become more frequent as global warming continues, she said.
Singh博士宣稱：「這比我們能預期之僅由於暖化的影響多。」她表示，該項研究並未試圖預測，依照此模式，當全球暖化持續時，是否熱浪會變得更頻繁。
Scientists are working to pin down how the meandering of the jet stream, which has long shaped weather patterns for billions of people, might be changing in this warming era.
科學家們正致力於確定，早已為數十億人塑造了天氣模式之空氣急流的蜿蜒前進，在此暖化時代，會如何改變。
One factor is the rapid warming of the Arctic, which narrows the difference in temperatures between the northern and southern bands of the Northern Hemisphere. How exactly this might be affecting extreme weather is still a matter of debate.
一個因素是，縮小北半球南、北地帶間之溫差的北極迅速暖化。究竟這會如何影響極端天氣，仍然是個爭議問題。
But those temperature differences are key forces driving the winds that keep weather systems moving around the planet. As the temperature differences narrow, these air currents may be slowing down, said Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.
不過，那些溫差是驅動，使天氣體系持續在地球各地移動之風的關鍵力量。 美國哥倫比亞大學拉蒙特-多爾蒂地球觀測所的氣候科學家，Kai Kornhuber 表示，隨著溫差縮小，此些氣流可能正放慢中。
That means extreme events like heat waves and heavy downpours are likely to last longer. “The longer a heat wave lasts, the more you push natural and societal systems to the edge,” Dr. Kornhuber said.
那意味著，熱浪及傾盆大雨等，極端事件可能持續更長時間。Kornhuber博士宣稱：「熱浪持續愈久，愈會將自然及社會體系推向邊緣。」
Climate change already means the world will see more extreme weather events, and more extremes occurring simultaneously, he said. “These circulation changes, they will act on top of it,” he said, “and would make extremes even more severe and even more frequent.”
他表示，氣候變遷已經意味著，世界將看到更多極端天氣事件，及更多同時發生的極端事件。他宣稱：「此些循環發生改變，加之它們會起作用，因此會使極端事件更嚴重，甚至更頻繁。」
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網址：https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/climate/early-heat-waves.html
翻譯：許東榮
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