But some adaptation is likely to help
不過，有些適應性改變可能會有助益
Feb 28th 2022
THE “ASSESSMENT REPORTS” from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used to assess scientific extrapolations, the output of models and similar investigations into likely and frightening futures.
該來自政府間氣候變遷專門委員會的“評估報告”被用來，評估科學推斷、模型輸出及對可能與可怕之未來的類似調查研究。
The latest, sixth, assessment report, which comes eight years after the previous one, reflects how much has happened of late. It reads, for the first time, like something written from within the thick of things, an assessment of an ever more troubling present.
來自先前一份8年後的最新、第6份評估報告，反映了最近已經發生多少事情。首度閱讀，宛如是從問題深處被顯露的事。這是目前，越來越令人擔憂的一份評估。
The release of the first tranche of this new report, the bit that dealt with the state of the physical science of the climate system and climate change, came in August. The second tranche (of three, with a synthesis due later) arrived on February 28th. It reports on the impacts of that climate change, and on adaptation and vulnerability to it.
這份新報告，即涉及氣候體系及氣候變遷之物理科學狀況的第一部分，於2021年8月發佈。第二部分(預定的隨後第三部分，是一份綜合性報告)於2022年2月28日發佈。它報告了氣候變遷的影響，及對氣候變遷的適應性改變及脆弱性。
Like the first, this second tranche is the work of hundreds of authors who have ploughed through vast piles of peer-reviewed papers and other material, with their work then scrutinised by both peers and governments. Researchers and government officials then gathered to agree on phrasing that summarises those findings and advice.
與第一部分一樣，第二部分是數百位，翻閱了大量經過同行評審的論文，及其他材料所撰文，之後受到同行及政府審查之撰文人的作品。其後，研究人員及政府官員們聚集在一起，來針對總結那些發現及建議的措辭達成意見一致。
The report as a whole is a huge, baggy and inevitably uneven affair. And as Nat Keohane, head of the Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions, an American think-tank, put it, “At the most basic level, [it] simply confirms what we already know: the damages from climate change are occurring already”. But what is known about the crisis that is under way bears some restating.
整體説來，該報告是一件龐大、鬆散且不可避免之參差不齊的事。正如美國智囊團氣候暨能源解決方案中心負責人，Nat Keohane所表述：「在最基本的層面上，[這]僅證實，我們已經知曉：來自氣候變遷的傷害已正發生中。」 不過，有關進行中之危機被瞭解的，需要有些重述。
The summary says clearly that things are getting worse, with observed increases in extreme high temperatures on land and in the seas, in torrential rain, in droughts and weather conducive to wildfires.
摘要清楚表示，情況正在變得更糟。因為被觀察到，陸地上與海洋中的極端高溫、暴雨、乾旱及有助於野火的天氣，都在增加。
The changes are affecting people, animals and plants, with widespread shifts in the timing of the seasons and with half of the species scientists have looked at moving towards higher latitudes and/or higher altitudes to cool down (though it is possible that there is some bias there: data may be gathered for species already thought to be on the move more than they are for others).
由於季節時序中的廣泛變化，及科學家們已經注意到，半數物種朝向更高緯度，及/或更高海拔移動，來獲得較低的溫度(雖然在那點上，可能有一些偏見：數據或許是為，已經被認為比其他物種更多移動中的物種收集的)。這些變化，正在影響人類、動物及植物。
With temperatures currently 1.1-1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, some natural systems are approaching, or surpassing, their capacity to adapt. Some coral reefs, rainforests, coastal wetlands and polar and mountainous ecosystems are butting up against “hard limits”.
由於，目前溫度超過工業化前1.1-1.3°C，一些自然體系正在接近或超過其適應能力。一些珊瑚礁、熱帶雨林、沿海濕地及極地與山地生態系，正在與“諸多嚴苛極限點”相抗衡。
Plants that humans use for food, fabric and other purposes are also under stress. The report notes with moderate confidence that the increases in agricultural productivity made over the past 50 years are lower than they would have been in the absence of climate change.
人類使用供作食物、織物及其他用途的植物，也面臨壓力。該報告以適度的信心指出，在過去50年間，農業生產力獲得的增長，低於沒有氣候變遷情況下會有的增長。
Changes are not all slow and gradual. Where highly vulnerable populations face hazards such as extreme weather, climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises. People in all regions of the world are being displaced by them, it says.
變化並非全是緩慢及漸進的。在高度脆弱的群體面臨，諸如極端天氣等危害源的地方，氣候變遷正成為人道主義危機的部分原因。其陳述，世界所有地區的人們，正因它們而被迫離開家園。
It highlights worsening food insecurity and malnutrition wrought by droughts and floods in Africa and Latin America. The report does not, however, see much of an impact from all this on violent conflict.
其強調了，於非洲及拉丁美洲，由乾旱及洪水造成之惡化中的糧食不穩定及營養不良。不過，該報告並沒有注意到，來自所有這些，對暴力衝突的影響。
Some things could have been worse. Some efforts towards development and climate adaptation, it says, have reduced vulnerability to climate change, and more planning for adaptation (and implementation of those plans) is being seen everywhere.
有些事情可能已經更糟。其陳述，一些為了發展及氣候進行適應的努力，已經降低對氣候變遷的易受傷害性，因此到處能看到更多進行適應的計劃(及那些計劃的實施)。
Some of those programmes also bring benefits beyond their alleviation of climate risk. For all that, though, the impacts of climate change are increasing at a rate that outstrips those improvements in adaptation.
其中一些計劃也帶來了，緩解氣候風險之外的益處。雖然，儘管如此，氣候變遷的影響，正以超過那些在進行適應中之諸多改善的速度增加。
In the near term–perhaps the next few decades–trying to narrow that widening gap seems to be the most important task. The point is that the difference in near-term risk between worlds with better and worse adaptation is greater than between worlds with more or fewer emissions.
在短期內(也許是未來幾十年)試圖縮小不斷擴大的差距，似乎是最重要的任務。關鍵是，在具有較佳與較不佳適應之區域間的近期風險差異，大於具有更多或更少排放量之區域間的差異。
Acting quickly, though, may come at the cost of neglecting plans for the long term. Actions designed to lower immediate risks, the report argues, can reduce the opportunity for “transformational” adaptation that improves things over the longer term.
雖然，迅速採取行動可能以忽視長期計劃的代價進行。不過，該報告認為，旨在降低直接風險的諸多行動，能減少在較長期間改善狀況的“轉換”適應機會。
The report warns of risks from “maladaptation” in which efforts to address climate impacts do more harm than good. One example would be building a sea wall around a city. Doing so protects the residents from rising sea levels and storm surges in the short term. But it might also change the pattern of currents by the coast, creating worse erosion elsewhere.
該報告警告，來自面對氣候影響之諸多努力中，“適應不良”的風險，會造成弊大於利。一個例子是在城市周遭建造海堤。這樣做能在短期內，保護居民免於海平面上升及風暴潮的影響。不過，這也會改變海岸的水流模式，而在其他地方造成更嚴重的侵蝕。
Such measures can also create a false sense of security: in the floodplain around the Jamuna river in Bangladesh, there is evidence that the presence of levees attracts more people to live there, ultimately increasing the number of deaths that result if a levee were to break.
此類措施也會造成虛假安全感：在孟加拉共和國，賈木納河周遭的氾濫平原，有堤防的存在吸引更多人居住在那裡的證據。最終，倘若堤防決裂則會導致死亡人數增加。
Starting an irrigation system in an area where the rain can no longer be relied upon to grow crops could lead to overconsumption of river water, leaving people downstream with less.
於能不再仰賴雨水種植農作物的地區，啟動灌溉系統可能導致河水過度消耗，而使下游的人擁有較少的水。
“In choosing the right solutions, we need to be thinking about more than just one climate hazard and also about the range of side-effects of the interventions we undertake” says Maarten van Aalst, director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and one of the report’s authors.
該項報告撰文人之一，紅十字紅新月氣候中心(荷蘭法律規定的公益組織，是紅十字會與紅新月會國際聯合會的專業參考中心)主任，Maarten van Aalst宣稱：「在選擇正確的解決方案上，我們需要考慮的，不僅僅是一種氣候危害，還要考慮我們進行之干預措施的副作用範圍。」
Even if such unintended consequences are avoided, there are signs that, in some areas, humans will struggle to adapt much more. Extreme heat is one example. Last summer, British Columbia in Canada recorded a freakishly high temperature of 49.6°C.
即使避免了此類意想不到的後果，也有跡象顯示，在某些領域，人類將艱難地進行更多適應。酷熱就是一個例子。去年夏天，加拿大英屬哥倫比亞省記錄了，49.6°C的反常高溫。
Almost simultaneously, Iraqis protested against electricity cuts as temperatures in the country exceeded 50°C. The heatwave in Canada was more unusual than the one in Iraq. But Canada has the resources to prepare for another one, if it chooses. Iraq does not.
幾乎同時，伊拉克人抗議停電，因為在該國的氣溫超過50°C。在加拿大的熱浪，比在伊拉克的熱浪更不尋常。不過，倘若加拿大想要，它有諸多為另一次熱浪做準備的資源。伊拉克沒有。
These types of “soft limits” can be overcome, but not easily. In the case of Iraq, overcoming those soft limits would require simultaneously overhauling the attitudes and capacity of the government, reforming institutions and aligning donors to provide new sums of money.
此些類型的“不嚴苛極限點”能被克服，不過並不容易。就伊拉克而言，要克服那些不嚴苛極限點，就需要同時徹底改革政府的態度及能力。革新諸多機構及結盟捐助者，以提供新的資金彚集。
The fact that tangible damage is already here adds not just physical burdens but also political ones. Negotiation at the meetings of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, most recently in Glasgow last November, becomes particularly heated over what the convention calls “loss and damage” – impacts which have already been felt, and over which developing countries have a case for compensation.
實質損害已經存在的事實，這不僅增添了有形負擔，也增添了政治負擔。 在聯合國氣候變遷框架公約會議(最近一次是去年11月在格拉斯哥舉行)中的協商，有關該公約所稱的“損失及損害”(已經被感受到及發展中國家有補償實例的影響)變得特別熱烈。
Reportedly the biggest ructions in the closed plenary during which the IPCC summary was hashed out stemmed from attempts by some governments to make sure that it did not do too much to bolster the developing countries’ case.
據報導，於閉門的全體會議中，在此期間，政府間氣候變遷專門委員會(IPCC)經充分討論的結論，起源於一些政府試圖確保，其不會為了支持發展中國家的情況，而做太多的事。
Politics are hardly a new addition to the IPCC process; it was created at the end of the 1980s in part to generate political “buy in” to scientists’ warnings. But from now on, with assessment a matter of the present, not the future, expect the tensions to grow.
政治幾乎不是IPCC進行的新增部分。這有點是為了對科學家之警告，造成政治上的“買進”，而在1980年代末期被創建的。不過，從現在開始，隨著評估有關現在而不是未來的問題，預計諸多緊張情勢會加劇。
網址：https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2022/02/28/new-ipcc-report-over-3bn-people-face-rising-climate-change-threat/21807939
翻譯：許東榮
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