美國傳統基金會亞洲研究所資深研究員 John J. Tkacik Jr. 現在人在台灣觀察公投及總統大選。 他在親歷過去這幾天的無法無天後﹐ 親筆寫了這篇文章﹐ 交付標準週刊發表。傳統基金會是個右派智庫﹐在華盛頓首府舉足輕重﹐ 言論鏗鏘﹐ 很受布許政權倚重。 標準週刊更是無論派別﹐每個政治學教授要求學生必讀的刊物。 他們發表的許多論 文﹐ 常被引用來作國會聽證及施政的依據。
The Floridazation of Taiwan 台灣佛羅里達化
After a bitter campaign, an assassination attempt, and a photo-finish election, the Kuomintang leads Taiwan into crisis.
by John J. Tkacik Jr. 譚慎格發表於Weekly Standard(標準週刊) 03/22/2004 12:30:00 PM
TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO, eight Taiwanese pro-democracy activists organized a human rights day march in the southern city of Kaohsiung. When police blocked the progress of the demonstrators (who had a permit), violence broke out. The organizers were arrested, court-martialed for sedition, and sentenced to between 8 and 13 years in prison. Taiwan was a one-party dictatorship then, and governed under martial law. But following the death in 1988 of Chiang Kai-shek's son who was then Taiwan's president, the island swiftly democratized.
25年前﹐8位台灣民主人士在南台灣的高雄組織了一場人權遊行。示威者事先已請有執照﹐警察卻前來阻止不讓他們繼續遊行﹐結果引發了動亂。發起人全被抓起來以叛亂罪軍法審判﹐ 然後被判刑入獄長達8-13年。 台灣當時還在一黨專政實行戒嚴。不過在1988年蔣介石之子(也是當時的總統)死後﹐ 台灣島很快的民主起來。
Taiwan's new democracy was admittedly young and a bit ragged around the edges leading into Saturday's presidential election, but it had all the appearances of a successful system. One reason had been the stabilizing influence of the Kuomintang (the "Chinese Nationalist Party," also known as the KMT), one of the oldest political parties in Asia, if not necessarily a particularly democratic one. After its defeat in the 2000 presidential polls by Taiwan's Democratic Progressive ("Green") party, the KMT formed a loose "Blue" coalition with other Taiwanese parties of the right which still wield significant influence in the country's legislature. The KMT coalition's most senior leaders, its dignified chairman, Dr. Lien Chan, and his vice presidential running mate, Dr. James Soong, were both respected in international circles as cultured and erudite politicians from one of Asia's most successful economies.
台灣新興的民主直到星期六的總統大選為止﹐老實說來是既輕狂又不斯文﹐然而從一個成功的制度觀點來看﹐已算是雛形具備。國民黨(全名中國國民黨﹐簡稱KMT)雖然在民主程度上不怎麼夠看﹐ 也是亞洲最古老的政黨之一﹐ 其穩定影響為因素之 一。在2000年被台灣的民進黨(泛綠)打敗之後﹐國民黨與台灣其他右翼黨派結盟成 為鬆散的泛藍聯盟﹐ 在立法院裡勢力仍然不小。國民黨聯盟的共主其一為相貌堂堂 的黨主席連戰博士﹐其二為他的副手競選夥伴宋處瑜博士﹐兩位以前都是在國際上 很受敬仰﹐被公認為來自亞洲最成功的經濟實體﹐是既文雅又有學問的政治人物。
But that is over. On Saturday night, after a hard fought presidential campaign and a whisker-thin loss at the ballot box, the KMT coalition lashed out in a decidedly undemocratic way. The above-mentioned KMT elders bandoned the rule of law on Saturday night and Sunday by supporting--whenever they weren't leading--menacing crowds that laid siege to the Presidential Office in Taipei and abetted unrest in other cities. The election losers encouraged crowds in Taichung City to stage a midnight sit-in at judicial offices. At 3:30 a.m. on Sunday, KMT rioters in Kaohsiung broke down barricades at that city's procuratorate offices only to be repelled by a massive police presence.
然而這些都是春水了無痕的過去式了。 星期六晚上﹐歷經苦戰卻以毫微之差落敗﹐國民黨聯盟以極度反民主的方式反撲。我才提過的國民黨元老在星期六晚上拋棄法治﹐在星期天不是帶頭領導﹐就是公開支持暴民去包圍台北總統府及在其他城市施 亂。選戰輸家鼓勵臺中民眾半夜在地檢署前坐下示威。星期天凌晨3點半國民黨暴民 在高雄衝破市政府前的拒馬直到大批警力來支援後才被驅離。
Events began to spiral out of control on Saturday evening. When the last presidential vote was finally penciled in on the last hand-notated tally sheet, the KMT's Lien-Soong ticket lost to Taiwan's incumbent president, Chen Shui-bian, by a mere 29,518 votes (out of nearly 14 million). The 0.2 percent margin was surely a disappointing loss. This disappointment was no doubt compounded by deep, but unspoken, guilt that perhaps the KMT had brought the loss on itself.
情況在星期六晚上開始失控。 最後一張選票被親手記錄下來後﹐看得出來國民黨連宋票已被台灣現任總統陳水扁以29518極微票數(總投票數幾乎有壹仟四百萬票)差距打敗。 0.2%的差距當然令人極度失望。無疑的﹐除了失望的情緒外﹐還有那種無以言喻﹐懷疑國民黨自己把自己打敗了的挫折悔恨之情。
THE KMT MIGHT HAVE ATTRACTED that extra margin of support it had not treated last Friday's election-eve assassination attempt on President Chen and his running mate with such callousness. The president was in Southern Taiwan on Friday on a whistle-stop motorcade city tour in an open-air Jeep when a bullet shot through the front windscreen. Rather than ripping head-on into President Chen's stomach, the bullet struck at the very instant President Chen turned to wave and carved a bloody half-inch deep groove 8 inches along his abdomen--the wound required 11 stitches. A second bullet apparently ricocheted into Vice President Annette Lu's knee. Ear-splitting strings
of firecrackers masked the two pops from the assassin's pistol, and the unknown assailant (police believe there might have been a second shooter) disappeared into the crowd.
如果國民黨沒把上星期五大選夜前夕陳總統及其副總統受行刺未果的事講得那麼不 堪﹐或許本來還可以吸引到些許選票的。星期五總統在台南站在敞篷吉普車上掃街 拜票時﹐有一發子彈打來穿透了前座擋風玻璃。要是總統當時沒有恰好轉身去對群 眾揮手致意的話﹐那發子彈一頭就會打入陳總統的肚子裡﹐而不會只挖了條半寸寬 8寸長的血溝﹐光是縫就縫了11針。第二發子彈顯然在輾轉迂迴碰撞後打到副總統的膝蓋。行凶者的兩聲槍響被噪音喧天的鞭砲聲蓋過﹐而兇手趁亂遁入人潮。沒人知 道兇手是誰﹐警方相信可能還有第二人。
With the initial shock of the attack, Chairman Lien muttered his condolences and dispatched an aide to the hospital. But as news came that the president's wound, though deep, was superficial, the KMT campaign was seized with the prospect that a sympathy vote might cost them the election.